Jeff Snyder
EF5
A relatively impressive environment in place for tornadic supercells across west-central through northern Minnesota and adjacent areas of Canada. Dewpoints in the 68-73 F range with temps in the 80-90 F range are yielding very strong instability (mesonanalysis showing >4000 j/kg). Low-level shear is actually very strong right ahead of the line of supercells (500-900 m2/s2 effective SRH) on a 45-55kt 850mb LLJ, and a threat seems to exist for a significant tornado across the northern 1/2 of MN. Deep-layer shear is a tad marginal (particularly nearer central MN) as stronger 500mb flow remains west of the cold front. However, the very strong low-level shear, high near-surface moisture content, and moderate to strong instability will support significant supercells. The primary question that I see is storm mode, as convection is aligned in a N-S band and consists of closely-spaced supercells. If convection can remain discrete or semi-discrete, the tornado threat will remain relatively high (IMO), particularly along and just north of the warm front that lies across northern MN. On the other hand, it will be relatively minimized if convection completely merges into a solid N-S band. Perhaps the tail-end chuck N of Alexandria, MN, will be a good target. A supercell composite parameter of 50 with an effective Siggy Tor Param. (STP) of 9? Eek.
An interesting cell also shows up from KMVX radar in southern Canada, but it's an awful long ways from the radar to do much in the way of radar interrogation. Back to northwestern MN:
An interesting cell also shows up from KMVX radar in southern Canada, but it's an awful long ways from the radar to do much in the way of radar interrogation. Back to northwestern MN:
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