7/11/06 FCST: SD / NE / MN / IA

  • Thread starter Mike Hollingshead
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Mike Hollingshead

Well since it showed up again on tonight's wrf run I figured I'd mention a decent looking chase op setting up for Tuesday(it looked a bit better to me on the 12z run, but still looks doable). The wrf has been a bit stronger with the wave than the gfs. I'm hoping the wrf is close to being right. It looks like one of the better setups in a long while now. Wrf actually has 500mb flow out of the sw at 40-45 knots over a good chunk of a sfc trough in w IA at 0z. Upper level winds(250mb) out of the ssw at >50 knots. Low level jet out of the ssw at 25-30 knots. Moisture should be back in place by the time Tuesday is here as the good deep stuff is in northern TX along and south of the Red River. Then again it isn't in any hurry right now to move north, but I figure there is plenty of time. Capping doesn't seem too terrible either. I'm really hoping this slows like they often do and winds up back in NE a ways. I think climo favors nc NE this time of year for some reason. The turning kind of sucks but that can change easy enough. If there is any extreme instability and a boundary that doesn't move too fast perhaps there is hope for something to anchor on it(like they often do this time of year in NE) and turn to the right.
Sigh. I see the wrf trended towards the gfs and the new gfs trending towards.....a dumpster I suppose. It seems like the wrf is wanting to split that wave in two and that is throwing everything off. So I guess there is still hope. The gfs isn't helping however.
Yeah, I thought the 12z WRF from yesterday looked very nice for Tuesday. Alas, it doesn't look to promising anymore. Still looks like some smaller potiental associated with the second area of vorticity, since CINH is largely erroded and model is showing some lift and convergence. But instability and wind fields make that of little appeal for a work-day. The GFS soln is considerably faster and unfortunately has some support from the GEM/ECMWF.