7/03/04 NOW: IL, IN

Current discussion says that it's most likely in IN as there is too much cloud cover in IL that is killing the heat. Should be an interesting day anyway.
I'm not sure that you wouldn't have a better chance to see a brief spinup directly beneath the vortmax over in IL than here in Indiana under the bulk of the watch. We have some modest turning in the lowest levels and low LCL's, but deep layer shear is poor and winds aloft are weak in general. Instabilites are high. Right now I'm sitting around 3500 j/kg MUCAPE per SPC Meso page.

I don't know if I've ever ignored a freshly-minted tornado watch right on top of me, but I might today. I'm in a little rental car because my Toyota is still in the body shop, and I live in Bloomington which is in the wooded hill country of the White River Valley--basically, chaser hell. I'd have to jump north then west of Indy to find marginally open country.

Hmm. Frankly I haven't had much luck chasing the upper midwest in the two years I've been here. I'm tempted to go on about my Saturday. Anybody else in the area have thoughts?
I currently favor the northern portions of the TOR box along the WF boundary across northern Indiana into southern lower Michigan. The RUC continues to back winds from a Valparasio, IN to Lansing, MI line through 00Z, coupled with -4/-6 LI's; and proged moisture convergence from about Gary to South Bend, Indiana. WSR88D at this moment shows echo returns developing from S. Wisconsin SE through N. CEN. Indiana; with a northward movement. Latest VIS satellite; and current observations in Kalamazoo, Michigan; show clearing along and north of the northward moving WF boundary; with developing CU along and just S of the WFB; with the same geographic areas being highlighted previously. Winds in KZO are currently E/SE at 15mph (at my apartment; real-time obs.)

Since I'm in no rush to chase grunge; and am in the process of preparing for a move; I will monitor this situation, but personally favor this region (north of the current TOR box) for tornadic potential between 21Z-00Z. I'd expect SPC to place a new MD for this region; and monitor for a new watch box (judging by current obs; possibly TOR); within the next 4 hours.

Rob Dale; if your browing this thread today; what are your thoughts?

Ah... I love wishcasting.

Latest IND reflectivity shows a trend toward more discrete cells within the line of convection currently moving into extreme southwest Indiana. I expect we'll see warnings shortly.
Not terribly impressed by the relatively weak winds aloft... The TOR was a bit of a surprise for me.

- Rob
No torn warnings yet but four severe warnings out now for counties in W Central and SW Indiana. I'm in the Martinsville area now targetting one of the strongest cells, due west.
Just a post-event follow up; this should really be under a "REPORTS" thread; but since the event was so minimal; I'm posting it here. As expected; convection fired up; yet no watch was issued (to isolated and sporadically intense to warrant a watch box). Departed west on I-94 and targeted a "mini-supercell" which exhibited a decent looking wall cloud at Paw Paw, Michigan (at the I-94 and M-40 interchange) with minimal rotation observed. Phoned NWSFO GRR and relayed my report; and inquired as to what they were seeing on WSR88D. Minimal rotation noted; but nothing significant. I think I caught the best of it at Paw Paw; as it seemed to loose it's "oomph" (I just made up the spelling for that expression) as it moved N/NE at 25-30mph. Winds aloft today; as Rob Dale noted; were weak; alas storms which attempted and or did go supercell didn't last very long. Was nice to get out and see some quasi-supercellular wall cloud action; and only 15 minutes away from home.

Looks like my target verified; I'm happy. Currently enjoying a cool shower w/ sporadic lightning at KZO.

I got off US 131 at Otsego in Allegan County and took a zig zag direction through NW Kalamazoo County and into Van Buren County, did notice a wall cloud off to my south, it moved off to the north-northeast. I forgot how annoying the trees are in Van Buren County. Get a view of it, and then I was in the trees, as I proceeded south, get a view, then trees,.etc. Also I was in southern Kalamazoo County, to intercept the storms that moved north out of St.Joseph County, nothing worth mentioning. headed back home on US 131, by D avenue had some gusty winds, around 40 mph. Lightning was dismal, but it did rain very hard, in Allegan, Kalamazoo and Van Buren Counties.