Bob Hartig
EF5
From the time that Monday came within its range, NAM-WRF has been indicating tornadic potential in the Great Lakes. A weak surface low positioned in WI/northern IL backs winds nicely, with a WF stretching east across Michigan. Everything appears to be in place. The wild card is the discrepancy between the NAM and the GFS, the latter of which has been moving the low consistently eastward and tilting it positively. Two very different pictures here, with the NAM offering plenty to like and the GFS painting nothing but horribly veered surface winds and unidirectional flow overall.
I'm not savvy enough to determine which model is the more trustworthy, but my gut tells me that the NAM has got the better handle on things. If that's the case, then we Great Lakes chasers should finally get a little action in our own backyard. MI, IN, and OH look to be the main candidates at the moment, though I've included WI and IL to make allowances for deviation in future runs.
I'm not savvy enough to determine which model is the more trustworthy, but my gut tells me that the NAM has got the better handle on things. If that's the case, then we Great Lakes chasers should finally get a little action in our own backyard. MI, IN, and OH look to be the main candidates at the moment, though I've included WI and IL to make allowances for deviation in future runs.