6/7/06 NOW: NE / SD

A couple nice supercells occurring across north-central NE at this time, as moderate instability resides near a frontal boundary invof the NE/SD border. Mesonanalysis indicates that deeplayer shear is favorable for supercells, and things could get interesting for those storms residing along the boundary. A supercell in Brown co. NE is currently exihibiting a nice BWER, precip echo overhang, and potential hook-echo (may be preferred development as parcels reach their LFCs 'riding up' the outflow/cold pool), though purple-haze is creating velocity analysis problems. Tornado potential would be much higher if dewpoints were even in the "marginal" range... Current surface observations indicate Tds in the 35-55F range, with 40-50F dewpoint depressions in the warm sector.

EDIT: 4:22p -- storms not look quite as well organized as 15 minutes ago...
 
The cell in Brown county is actually pulling the boundary back into the supercell right now – this could well go tornadic soon. SFC Obs are that bad (but could indeed be better) North Platte is 99/55f South of the boundary while Valentine is 77/55f North of the boundary.
 
The cell south of ainsworth NE is showing some rotation and capable of 60+ winds and qaurter size hail.
 
This is kind of a half-NOW/half-REPORT. I started out going W out of Valentine at initiation because 1) when I had arrived in Valentine, there was already a lot of MCS-convective junk overhead that I wanted to get away from, and 2) I wanted a road S to get in front of the new convection... 61 miles to the west! Well, as the convection S of me was lining out quickly, I decided I needed to get back to the lead "cell", which I figured was going to be the only one getting unmolested air in the E/ESE backing winds.

So after driving 20 miles W, I drove back to VLT, then S on US83 until I could see that everything was getting undercut. (At least everything I could see from 83, and road options are about the worst anywhere in The Alley here.)

20 or so miles back N to VLT, where I checked data again, and saw the painfully obvious outflow bdry way S of the convection.

Now what do I do?

Go on up to SD where the LCL's are lower, upper level winds greater, and Td's are roughly the same as S of this afternoon's convection?

Well, I got a room in VLT, and I'm sitting on my bed, since CAPE and LI's are worthless up in SD. I'm keeping an eye on the radars and sat imagery, but it doesn't look like a nader day for me. No surprise there.

Saw the DOW and TIV in VLT (at initiation).

BTW, if any chasers read this enroute back to VLT for the night, I recommend this motel, the "Raine" motel on the W side of town on US20. WiFi works great, $45, nice rooms, hardly any other guests here (yet, anyway). Stop by and say "Hi". I'm in room 128. I'm also told the "Peppermill" restaurant/bar has great food...right downtown along US83. If I'm not in my room, I may be there.

Bob
 
Well Bob, don't look now but there's a tornado warning for Custer county, NE.
 
Well Bob, don't look now but there's a tornado warning for Custer county, NE.
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FYI: Tornado warning issued from law enforcement report of tornado 5 NW of Arnold NE
Project SHAVE was following this storm...I was watching it and it looked like some real heavy dBZs came down in the RFD...we're trying to call into the area around Arnold NE but getting intercept operators so the lines may have been down. From the project's standpoint it's a shame because this would have been a great sample of the core just north of a tornado and in the RFD. Hopefully the tornado didn't hurt anyone or cause much damage.

So I am an idiot and put down the wrong area code...we're calling into the area now

UPDATE: LOTS OF PEAS!!!!! In Arnold I guess they didn't get much rain/hail and every where we called sounded fine
 
Ah, well, that stuff happens. Here's why I broke off the chase:

*Driving S on 83 under the convection, I encountered a dead w/c (not even attached to the storm base any more), indicating to me that the outflow from the convection E of 83 was ruining the inflow for everything W of it.

*I essentially couldn't get to the easternmost limits of the convection due to the basically nonexistent roads.

*I knew the parameters were lousy out that way, anyway.

*There was still backing winds with decent moisture in my original target of NE/SD state line to I-90. Could something possibly fire there in post-convective environment and surprise? Not likely, but it was something that crossed my mind, anyway.

When I got back into Valentine, data showed (if memory serves me) CAPE of ~500-1000, LI of ~-2, 500 and 250mb winds of ~20kts, and zero SRH in the Arnold area. Hey, I'll miss tornadoes that occur in those conditions every time! LOL (Because I won't be there)

Bob
 
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