Bob Schafer
EF5
The mods will have to decide how to fix this thread, because based on this morning's 12Z GFS there are legitimate potential targets all over the place. It's insane.
1) DL from E NM to SE CO, into N and S of the OK PH, under the upper jet nose.
2) E WY into NE PH and N'wd into MT, where upslope flow and Td's as high as lower 60's (ºF) resides under light but diverging upper winds in the left-exit region.
3) WF from SD into MN. This region features small hodos, backing winds at H4, and big moisture, so bring your umbrella and raincoat.
4) My fav target of the bunch: NC KS into extreme SC NE, E of the sfc L. The 996mb sfc L centered over the corner of CO/KS/NE promises screaming inflow there with CAPE ~2000. The fSounding suggests a bit of an inverted V, but the LCL's look acceptable. The upper support could be better, but it's... ok.
140602 06Z prog advertises 6-hour rainfall for all 4 potargs. (Potential targets, hahahaha...) ...but just a little for "potarg 1)" where 700mb T's are into the 15ºC+ range.
You'll be lucky if you get anything higher than 30kt bulk shear anywhere, but at this point of this season we take what crumbs we can get.
1) DL from E NM to SE CO, into N and S of the OK PH, under the upper jet nose.
2) E WY into NE PH and N'wd into MT, where upslope flow and Td's as high as lower 60's (ºF) resides under light but diverging upper winds in the left-exit region.
3) WF from SD into MN. This region features small hodos, backing winds at H4, and big moisture, so bring your umbrella and raincoat.
4) My fav target of the bunch: NC KS into extreme SC NE, E of the sfc L. The 996mb sfc L centered over the corner of CO/KS/NE promises screaming inflow there with CAPE ~2000. The fSounding suggests a bit of an inverted V, but the LCL's look acceptable. The upper support could be better, but it's... ok.
140602 06Z prog advertises 6-hour rainfall for all 4 potargs. (Potential targets, hahahaha...) ...but just a little for "potarg 1)" where 700mb T's are into the 15ºC+ range.
You'll be lucky if you get anything higher than 30kt bulk shear anywhere, but at this point of this season we take what crumbs we can get.