6/6/08 FCST: MO/IL/IN/MI/OH/ONT

[Brian Stertz]

What looks to be a classic Day 2 tornado outbreak looks probable Friday from E. Missouri and much of Illinois into Indiana, Michigan, and W. Ohio. The most significant tornado threat based off 00z GFS looks like it will favor N/C Indiana into Lower Michigan Friday afternoon/evening. If the system can slow down some than forecasted on 00z GFS, this could be a serious tornado outbreak for even E. Missouri and Illinois....and certainly points northeast. Things could be setting up once again for yet another historic type tornado outbreak on Friday 6/6. Stay tuned...

 

[beaudodson]

There are a lot of concerns as to where the occlusion occurs. The Louisville, NWS Office discusses this in their evening AFD (Monday). They don't believe severe weather will be an issue across their area.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

I've been looking at this system for Michigan. Looks like a classic "Type 2" event identified by the NWS Grand Rapids in a study of the climatology of significant tornadoes in Lower Michigan.

It looks like a potentially overnight event for much of Michigan. I have posted a blog here with my forecast.

edit: GRR mentions possibility of severe, DTX does not.

 

[Andrew Herron]

Latest NMM and NAM have this system rolling through SW MI right about 00z with the NMM solution a little slower. Plenty of unidirectional shear and with no "pop" today things will certainly be ripe tomorrow.

I'm not a model analysis expert by any means so perhaps someone more qualified can chime in and help out.

As of now I'll be looking to head out around mid-day and set up in Jackson Co and go from there.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Here in Northern IL I expect things to get going by early afternoon or so ..We are still in Mod risk area but depending on timing the best cells could be east in Northeast and Central IL in this area..However I am hoping for the storms to fire slightly west of here then intercept..I dont like chasing down these things in NE IL.. But the I-39 Corridor is great for intercepts..
Not sure what mode will storms prevail in but probably like most end up linear..
Best part is i am off at noon on Friday too..should be an interesting day .. We'll see..

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Aww cmon guys.. Dont let the thread die because SPC took away the moderate risk..

Ehh, I can't blame ya all..

Looking at this mornings model data, RUC and NAM from 12z are showing some 2500+ CAPE Values over IL by 18z.. This is certainly in the relm of possibility with the 65+ DP's already over the area, and an area of clearing trying to form over Western IL. Some pretty good winds at H85 in the afternoon..

Shear profiles are for the most part unidirectional... However, Sig Tor and Sup Composites are rather elevated in my area..

Needless to say, I am not ready to write this one off just yet.. I doubt it will be HUGE, but barring anything unforseen happening, you could see some tubes..

Remember what we got last Fri with Unidirectional?? lol

 

[David Draun]

Despite extensive cloud cover from convective debris, SBCAPE is already over 2000 J/kg around the Chicago Metro area with dewpoints near 70F. I would not write this off either. I think a substantial severe threat still exists this afternoon. A new MD has been issued for Chicago southwestward. Parameters are very good for storm development and some is already occurring, but you have to look at any other radar besides KLOT to see them, which is in clear-air VCP 32 mode for some reason.

 

[rdale]

These storms are really flying as they form - but there's enough instability that we should see a bunch of sideways crapstorms like usually would happen in high shear. Not a lot of directional shear, so even though SRH numbers are high, that seems to point more towards nice downbursts. Plenty of dry air aloft, although I wonder if APX 18Z sounding is messed up with the wedge near 500mb as it's consistently 30*C dryier than 12Z sounding through that region.

 

[Eric Graham]

Thought I would put my two sents in on this. I had really high hopes for today, but I have my doubts now. Cloud cover from a dead squall line is over taking most of central IL and IN right now. The two areas still at play are (from a IN standpoint) is Bloomington, IN and points south. And Remington, IN and points north. I'm thinking about sitting this one out. However if storms start to fire like they did on Wednesday I might head north to my Remington target.

 

[John Thurston]

Looking at things from SW IA, no energy here - and things on radar east of here look perhaps of going linear. Will watch a while longer and then head up to NE Central Iowa for tomorrow.