6/6/07 FCST: ND/SD/NE/KS/MN/IA/MO

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm sitting with the rest of the mobile phased array radar group (Dan Dawson, Robin Tanamachi, Jana Houser, and Chad Baldi) in Grand Island attm. Situation looks dire from almost all perspectives IMO. Cap is very significant, but the terrible moisture forecasts from the NAM over the past few days is no surprise, and I'd expect to see widespread 62-64F in the warm sector N of I70 hold through the afternoon. Cirrus is being generated over the mountains W of Pueblo and Denver, which is not helping our cause. We need all the heating we can get today, so the relatively widespread Ci is just a kick in the butt.

It's too bad we don't have another day's worth of moisture return, since I think we'd see a large, violent tornado outbreak across much of the Plains today were that to happen. 12Z NAM doesn't look too bad for initiation in western KS (e.g. see the 12hr forecast sounding / valid 00z / for Hill City / HLC), with minimal capping immediately (!) ahead of the dryline in southern NE and much of western KS. But, I still think the NAM is overdoing low-level moisture, which will have obvious impacts on CINH and CAPE.

Similar to Al's observations -- the drive from York to Grand Island was very dusty! I don't think that will have much impact on storm initiation, but it could yield greater-than-normal condensation nuclei I suppose (and I'd imagine no appreciable impact on initiation, other than perhaps decreasing surface heating further, thereby reducing probs of initiation).

 

[Jesse Risley]

We're sitting here in Norfolk, NE mulling our options. Dust storm on the way here has been atrocious. I'm still thinking (based on latest runs) that central and nothern NE stand the best potential from my vantage point. Dewpoints have reached the lower 60s and temps are hovering around the mid-80s. I'm not sure whether or note the cap is going to bust before dark.

 

[David Wolfson]

Differential divergence axis entering sw corner of SD, CAPE/CIN starting to break, and TW now out. 60s dews now up near RAP. Per plan, at [V] target watching - waiting just north of RAP.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Impact of Dust on today's chase

Here's anew experience for me. Currently driving through a 1934 Great Dust Bowl simulation. (On I-80, 50 mi. W of Grand Island.) The strong surface wind from the south has picked up so much dirt that visibility is about a mile.

Is it like this everywhere in Nebraska? And does anyone think the dust will affect convection?

The dust will likely have minimal impact on the storms this evening. However, the lowered visibility may hamper spotting storm structure and (of course) tornadoes. Note the advancing cloud of dust just to the south and west of the dry line over eastern CO/northwest KS/southwest NE in this visible satellite loop. Be careful out there and good luck.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DEN&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

with a cap as such, i feel you will need temps in the mid 90's to break it.. since this probably wont happen. you will have to wait until it weakens tonight

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Here's anew experience for me. Currently driving through a 1934 Great Dust Bowl simulation. (On I-80, 50 mi. W of Grand Island.) The strong surface wind from the south has picked up so much dirt that visibility is about a mile.

Is it like this everywhere in Nebraska? And does anyone think the dust will affect convection?

Same here in ne NE on 275. Need goggles today.

There's a ton of road construction on this highway from Fremont to at least Neligh...stopped yet again.

 

[John Hudson]

Sitting in Aberdeen, SD getting data at Super 8. No dust here with the ground moisture, but the wind is blasting everything here, also.

Considering moving a little further west as an option, but everything today just seems like such a "crap" shoot.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Warren Faidley]

Interesting feature on the latest sat. image of what appears to be towers forming near Kimbell, NE in cloud free area near dryline. Trying to confirm from our location.

Warren

With Joel and Doren near Ogallala, NE on I-80.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Interesting feature on the latest sat. image of what appears to be towers forming near Kimbell, NE in cloud free area near dryline. Trying to confirm from our location.

Warren

With Joel and Doren near Ogallala, NE on I-80.

I also see enhanced cumulus in that area from vis satellite. KCYS radar shows rapid development of cells in that area along with several colliding boundaries.
This should be the main area of interest over the next hour or so.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

If I were so inclined to have the option to chase today, I would still have stuck to my original target of Hastings, NE and south. I think the isolated nature and the likelyhood for more moisture for anything the fires up is a plus. Remember that it is quality not quantity of supercells IMO.....

I think there will be some decent action after dark; and remember the farther north, the more daylight, of course that looks to not be a factor.

Sitting this one out.....

 

[Josh Richardson]

Yeah, thats a big ouch. Not too far from O'Neill right now but contemplating calling off this one and heading back to IA for tomorrow's setup. Not sure what to do yet.

 

[David Wolfson]

Latest vis frame shows new development in Pine Ridge, SD, vic. This seems to be right place/right time and will [V] intercept.

21:15Z: Pine Ridge cell rooted for over an hour ahead of approaching front/dryline. Now appears on radar to be developing eagle structure and soon to take rightward storm motion IMO (~250 at 20kts?).

21:30Z: Supercell producing tornado(s) southeast of Kyle, SD. In position and environment to be cyclic for several hours. Good luck all.

 

[Kyle Masters]

That'll ruin your day fairly effectively. Basically took out all tornadic wording and shifted the hail/wind westward a bit. Bust, bust, bust.

 

[Robert Balogh]

Sitting in sturgis, waiting and hoping

 

[Shane Adams]

Just leaving Albion northbound, well east of the tornado watch. Plenty of daylight left. I rolled the dice hours ago and I'l go down with the ship to the bitter end

Still not convinced NC Nebraska's a bust, even if it's nocturnal.