6/6/07 FCST: ND/SD/NE/KS/MN/IA/MO

[Mike Hollingshead]

Well certainly some improvements on the 12z nam, a lot less cin at 0z than before(north half of NE into SD). Also the sfc low is a bit se from where it was before. That bulge shows up on it as well and is pretty interesting if one looks at the 6z map after the 0z depiction of it. If that happens I'd probably be at the tip of it, but be ready for others to pop off to the south of it later, as the bulge lets up and fills west a bit, firming up with the north to south, tight e-w gradient sort of holding there.

Target might be shifting back towards Ainsworth.

Dang the 12z ruc is a good bit different. Will at least be interesting to see what the 15z does with things as it will have the morning soundings put into it(12z doesn't, right?).

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Not much to add as others have mentioned the somewhat lack of moisture return and the well advertise CAP. As Mike mentioned the morning run of the NAM is encouraging with the dryline bulge as well as a little bit weaker CINH by 00z. Dewpoints are currently upper 50's south of I80 as well as north of the interstate. Some very low 60 td's are beginning to creep towards the KS/NE border at this time and should continue to increase throughout the day. It will be interesting to see how much they mix out during the day. Sitting in Lincoln planning to head west towards Kearney or Grand Island and adjusting from there. Both locations have good highways north so those will be some good options. Will be watching the RUC and SPC forecast tools to try and get a grasp on the situation as well as keeping an eye on the location of the dryline and any associated bulges that may occur. Will be leaving Lincoln by noon so we should be near the before mentioned cities by around 2pm or so which should allow sufficient time to adjust from there. Hope to see some of you out and good luck to everybody and stay safe, esp. after dark!

 

[Brian Stertz]

Starting off in Sioux City and will be targeting NC Nebraska now based on the phasing of the wave and increasing moisture surge which is northbound from the S.Plains. The theta ridge poke looks aimed at the area between O'Neill and Burwell/Ord area. The thinking of this chase group is chasing after 8pm and a window of opportunity between 8-11pm. The best chance of a tornado (at least) in Nebraska will be in the dusk side of the evening hrs. Why do I have flashbacks to the Thedford NE event back in June '99 ?? Best of luck and patience to those chasing today. Things may get interesting around sundown.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Hmm which model to believe..........WRF or RUC, WRF is now advertising precip along the DL in W. KS and forecasting cinh to be eroded, while the RUC is saying "Cinh city." Either way, I'm going to hate one model by later tonight. Heading out shortly for W. KS.

WRF:

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=012&STATIONID=KHLC

RUC:

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=_khlc

 

[David Wolfson]

Some deja vu from a few weeks ago, with better winds. Not looking spectacular for isolated supercells before dark, but at least ones that form under the emergent upper flow nose and that can tap enough low level shear could actually make some real tornados. Initiation looks to be off the higher terrain of nw NE and the Black Hills. [V] Wait-and-see target: N. Rapid City, SD, Exit 60-61. The way this system has developed, am glad this is a [V] chase.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Not a forecast post, but maybe useful to those in the area today.

http://www.511nebraska.org/ndortip/index.jsp?MyMap=North Central

I'm not sure how accurate that is or exactly what is closed and how to get around it, but it sounds like that highway 11 is closed between Atkinson and Spencer Nebraska, west of O'Neill.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Not liking the cirrus deck, the strong cap, and somewhat meagure moisture considering the surface and mid levels temps. The shear's amazing over Nebraska/South Dakota, and the instability axis is very large over South Dakota. Once the cap does break it's tornado central, but it really looks like a late initiation.

From the 4km WRF it looks like storm should fire around or just after 00z. But if the upper system slows down any we're looking at a 01-03z initiation.

Interestingly the WRF almost completely breaks the cap along the dryline in Western Kansas. It would be interesting if daytime heating and mixing alond the dryline break the cap before the Nebraska/South Dakota target.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Well my orginal target of the Guymon Dodge City Woodward triangle changed last night but it may still be a good play. My new target last Night was Salina Kansas and then head West or North. Since I could git there in about the same it take to get to Dodge City if I went to Salina by interstate.
However I got a call this morning about 8am saying they are gona cut the wheat down at my ranch instead of doing it this Saturday and chancing any more raiin delays. So I will be watching combines and 40-45 mph winds blow that crap all ovver me in about 96 degree weather. FUN FUN FUN! I hope the cap holds in Kansas to make me feel better but hopefully some of you Nebraska boys will get into the good stuff today. Id be up there with ya if I HaD THE TIME AND GAS WASNT SO DAMN EXPENSIVE.

I will take all my gear with me in the hope something fires WAAAAY south from the Childress to Guthrie TX to Vernon Triangle jsut in case but its more of a desperate move than anything.

Ill play Oklahoma tomorrow Im sure.

 

[Jeff Miller]

I want to make a mention on moisture return...

In just 2 hours the dewpoint at KSUX has climbed from 51 to 58... and some mid level accus is beginning to develop west of SUX as well, showing some decent mid level instability. Low 60s Dews have already streamed well into North Dakota. I dont think moisture return will be an issue.

It looks promising, and I think the chances are looking better as the setup begins to come to reality.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

What an incredibly hard forecast...ugh.

What do you believe? Do you believe the WRF, which suggests a high-end tornado event could develop with the cap being breached along the length of the dryline, or do you believe the abysmal, convection-less RUC solution? I wish I had access to rawinsondes! My feeling right now is that the RUC is closer to the truth, and moisture will likely be only ankle-deep across the Plains. Visible satellite imagery does not show any low-level cumulus within striking distance of the area of interest. The juice appears to be in southern Texas, and there is no way it can make its way northward in time for peak heating.

Gabe

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I'm not a real fan of this pretty thick Cirrus deck, I'm sitting here in Ord under it and it is certinly limiting the surface heating. The sat. image doesn't look real promising for it letting up anytime soon either. Plenty of day left for it to erode however.

RUC forecasting the low to deepen to an amazing 969mb might not need storms to get svr criteria wind gusts today.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

This is definitely a hard forecast. I decided this morning not to chase today strictly because I don't think the cap is going to break early enough. I still think central-northern Nebraska could get raked with a couple tornadoes after dark, but southern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where conditions will be extremely favorable for strong tornadoes is going to stay dry IMO. If I was going to head out, I would still stick with my target of Kearney, NE to Hill City, KS. I just don't see the cap going down there though, especially with the cloud cover that is currently in place. What a waste of a great setup. Mid to upper 60 tds should make the NE border around 00Z, which would be adequate moisture for a serious tornado threat in this area should the cap break. Everything looks exceptional for tornadoes between Hill City and Kearney from 00Z-04Z if a storm does manage to get going, but that looks unlikely at this time. I am going to keep a close eye on things though. I can make Hays in 2.5 hours if I change my mind.
If anybody wants any nowcasting help I should be available this afternoon and evening to help out, assuming I don't chase (which I'm 80% sure I won't).

 

[John Hudson]

What an incredibly hard forecast...ugh.
The juice appears to be in southern Texas, and there is no way it can make its way northward in time for peak heating.

Gabe

Td's are already into the low 60's in central SD. It's getting here, one way or another, by the look of things.

Latest RUC shows convective precip to break out at 00Z in NW SD.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Al Leese]

Here's anew experience for me. Currently driving through a 1934 Great Dust Bowl simulation. (On I-80, 50 mi. W of Grand Island.) The strong surface wind from the south has picked up so much dirt that visibility is about a mile.

Is it like this everywhere in Nebraska? And does anyone think the dust will affect convection?

 

[Josh Murfield]

Hastings, NE NWS office still seems quite positive about this evening, mentioning supercells being likely with long-track tornadoes anticipated.
I think I'll hang out here at home in Lincoln to see the 20Z day 1 update, and if things still look good I'll head out around mid-afternoon for the central part of the state, probably somewhere not too far north of Grand Island.