6/3/08 FCST: KS/MO/IL/IN/OH

[Eric Graham]

Hello all, thought I would start a thread for Tuesday's chance for severe weather (SPC has a slight risk for the area). Liking what I see temp and dew point wise. Similar to this last Friday's setup which produced a few tornadoes here in IN. Im not sure how Monday's potential convection would affect Tuesday, however I'm seeing Tuesday as a better day. More later...

 

[Eric Graham]

Things are looking relatively good for Tuesday's setup. Highs are supposed to be in the mid 80's with dews in the mid 60's. Cape is very high around 3000-3500 mark. Very high possibillity of large hail and strong winds and maybe a tornado or two. More Later...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Time to resurrect Eric's thread. The 1300 outlook has the wrong categorical and probablistic displays currently (so ignore the pictures if you happen to be looking at them right this moment). COD has the correct ones.

Looks like a midwest tornado day today, with high CAPE targeting Illinois back into Missouri. The RUC shows a line of convergence by 21z extending through eastern Kansas into NW Missouri. Directional shear is best along the front today in Illinois back into Missouri. Will be watching for better wind values back to the west over eastern Kansas today (hopefully). TDs in the 65 degree range. The tongue of instability/helicity/moisture extending through central Kansas is interesting and I'd like more thoughts on possibilities back there. Possibly lots of coverage out there today - we'll see.

 

[HAltschule]

Yes, SPC's Day 1 Outlook Map and probabilities is showing yesterday's Day 1 Outlook for some reason. I imagine they would want to change that very quickly since most of the United States media relies on that alone.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: WICHITA, KS TIME OF DEPARTURE FROM DALLAS: 10:30 AM - A marginal chase day is shaping up along the KS/OK border and I am going to head north soon. PROS- A frontal boundary has stalled in this region and a 500 MB jet max will be approaching this area by 00z. There is ample surface moisture and CAPE. A dryline is progged to move out through the END area later today setting up a triple point around ICT (see RUC). CONS- Mega-capping inversions are present on the OUN and TOP 12z Soundings with less of a cap over DDC. The timing of the jet max appears to be about 06Z, so the storms may wait until after dark to fire along the boundary. Even if today is a bust, at least I'll be in better position to play tomorrows target along the KS/NE border from CNK to BIE. I'll be staying in Salina KS tonight. TM

 

[Jesse Risley]

This should be a fairly fruitful local chase day here in the Illinois region. The strong low level SHR is certainly sufficient for a few tornadoes later today, especially if we can get some backing winds in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, increasing vertical wind shear and LLVL moisture values.

I would expect convection to evolve into a MCS system later this evening and move off to the ESE. Much of the show today will again depend somewhat on when, where and how well the atmosphere is able to recover from last night's convective activity across the entire region.

 

[rdale]

It's not the overnight stuff that worries me about Illinois - but the current stuff coming in from Iowa... The rain shield is WELL back into Iowa. I have a little more excitement for central Indiana, due to work obligations I can't stray too far south but I'll shoot for Peru-ish if I can this afternoon.

 

[Mark Blue]

Target today is Hesston KS, for a late show around 1-2Z but hopefully not much later than that. Last couple of days have been hard to pin point a target as the MCSs that formed during the night have wrecked most chances for later same-day development. I'm glad some keen eyes spotted the incorrect graphics on the Day 1 SPC Outlook as I thought 1.5 hours of early morning forecasting prep was down the drain until I came here. The stalled out boundary along the KS/OK border should provide an area for initiation when the upper level trough arrives from the SW later today and provides some forcing that is definitely needed due to capping. Seems to be enough CAPE and ample moisture to work with, but isn't a sure bet by any stretch. Hope some others chime in today with their thoughts as the last couple of days have definitely been difficult to forecast.

Mark & Jane

 

[John Farley]

The latest RUC is showing some really impressive forecast parameters for parts of central IL late this afternoon - CAPE as high as 4000 and SRH as high as 300. A little more directional shear would be nice, but there will be some - and the current convection seems to be reinforcing the outflow boundary that will likely be the focus for afternoon convection. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade in probabilities in the new day 1 outlook from SPC - If the RUC forecasts come close to verifying, this could be a big day. It is close enough that I have the luxury of watching and waiting, but I would think roughly a 100 mile radius of Springfield would be a good initial target.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase Target for Today, June 3

Chase target:
Chillicothe, MO (45 miles east of St. Joseph).

Timing and storm mode:
Storm initiation: 5 PM CDT. Storm mode will be primarily multicell, however embedded supercells are also likely.

Discussion:
18Z SFC analysis indicates an OFB/WF extending from N of SUS to just S of CDJ in MO, with slow NWD movement noted. An increasingly enhanced CU field is located along a line extending from FNB to CDJ. from Further W, a CF/trough extended from FNB to P28 in KS, with low pressure centered just E of SLN and a pressure fall bullseye over SERN KS. Capping remains strong over MO due to a mid-level thermal ridge extending from SERN KS into ERN MO, however latest mesoanalysis trends suggest inhibition is weakening from S to N over CNTRL MO. This trend will continue with SFC heating and mid-level cooling in MO N of I-70. SFC-based convection should initiate along the OFB where flow locally backs. Hodograph curvatures will increase after 00Z along the WRN periphery of stronger WSWRLY H85 flow over backing SFC flow. LTHM profiler indicates 50kt WRLY flow above 700mb. A full spectrum of SVR WX should be likely given LCL heights around 800m AGL and strong instability.

- bill
1:48 PM CDT, 06/03/08

 

[rdale]

Early rain and extensive cloudcover has removed northern Indiana from my outlook area, some potential overnight maybe with another MCS but daytime stuff won't be potent.

 

[Mike Smith]

3,500j of 100mb mixed CAPE in central Kansas along convergence line. SPC has just put out a meso for hail and isolated TOR from south central to northeast Kansas.

 

[John Farley]

I am liking the area about 50 miles west of STL right now. SPC mesoanalysis shows very strong instability in that area, and decent shear, too. Much better instability in MO than in IL right now, so I think storms will fire along the OFB there before they do in IL. Thinking about heading for that area soon, but given how close it is, I'd be more confident in doing so if I saw signs of storms starting to initiate. Increasingly I think the big question for eastern MO and IL in general is the degree to which the storms can get going in this area before dark. RUC still predicts they will. Daytime storms might be a surer bet in the KS/W. MO target, but that is too far for me now, so I am looking at the area just west of STL. I still think storms before dark are more likely than not there, but my confidence is not as high as it was earlier.

EDIT - One thing I forgot to mention that also makes me hold back a bit is that a problem in chasing that area is that to stay ahead of the storms, you're right back into the STL metro area and also dealing with river crossing issues. But if I'm convinced that's where the best chance of daytime storms is, I will probably go.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Am heading out of my apartment here in Wichita and heading to north side of town to get clear view in all 3 directions. Going to sit and spot for a while before making a decision depending on what all happens. Really dont expect much as others have pointed out the thermonuclear cap in place but if LFCs are reached, definite monster supercell will take shape.
Also will continue my spotting thru sunset as possibility is there for LLJ storms after sunset.
KE5DZC
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