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6/27/05 TALK: Northern Plains

Once again, we seem to be looking at a cap/lcl game today. However, the pattern around here of late has been for things to push somewhat to the north and other stuff far to the south. Scrolling all through all the skew-t, I'm finding Norfolk having the best potential. So if I were going out, I'd probably shoot down to Sioux City and wait there for further data. Chick Fil-A anyone?
 
Time for the official Kyle's Forecast Post:

I will break it down by model then a final forecast:

Eta:

Running out of Sioux Falls (FSD) the Eta forecasts supercell development at around 3-5 CST. Looking at indicies and the wind profile, I think that the initial supercell will split into a right- and left-mover, with a squall line developing between the two. The low level winds veer nicely, but the unidirectional shear is just to strong for a perfect supercell environment.

Looking to YKN/SUX, looks pretty much the same, but with slightly better veering winds, so could see better environment for supercells.

GFS:

GFS for the FSD area looks great for severe storms, with my prediction being a dominant cyclonic supercell in a multicellular environment. Low level shear is forecast to be outstanding, and occlusion should be evident by 2 hours after initail development.

YKN/SUX areas arent looking the greatest with the GFS, with forecasts of non-severe multicell lines.

RUC:

Put simply, RUC is following the ETA for the storm type, looking favorable for squall lines, but the vertical shear is supportive of supercells as well.



Time will tell, but if I had to pick a target area I would have to forecast a triangle from FSD-YKN-SUX.
 
If you haven't check out that tornadic sup in the NE panhandle via Chyenne radar. Nice... Sigh...
 
If you haven't check out that tornadic sup in the NE panhandle via Chyenne radar. Nice... Sigh...

Yeah Mike, we hear ya... Verne C, Jon V, and myself have been talking about that for the last 20 minutes. Verne can see the damn thing from his house (was going to post a shot of it, keep in mind he's in Coal Creek Canyon, Colorado just north west of Denver.

What a beauty. I really need to be paying attention more to areas around the region cause I just happened to pull up NWS and see red counties in the NE Panhandle. Hope someone's on that thing.
 
I just want to cry not being up there right now!......

Here it is from my house at 9000' just west of Denver looking up at the overshooting top and anvil! I've bumped up the contrast to try and get rid of the haze effect.

20050627_M1.jpg


20050627_M2.jpg
 
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