Time for the official Kyle's Forecast Post:
I will break it down by model then a final forecast:
Eta:
Running out of Sioux Falls (FSD) the Eta forecasts supercell development at around 3-5 CST. Looking at indicies and the wind profile, I think that the initial supercell will split into a right- and left-mover, with a squall line developing between the two. The low level winds veer nicely, but the unidirectional shear is just to strong for a perfect supercell environment.
Looking to YKN/SUX, looks pretty much the same, but with slightly better veering winds, so could see better environment for supercells.
GFS:
GFS for the FSD area looks great for severe storms, with my prediction being a dominant cyclonic supercell in a multicellular environment. Low level shear is forecast to be outstanding, and occlusion should be evident by 2 hours after initail development.
YKN/SUX areas arent looking the greatest with the GFS, with forecasts of non-severe multicell lines.
RUC:
Put simply, RUC is following the ETA for the storm type, looking favorable for squall lines, but the vertical shear is supportive of supercells as well.
Time will tell, but if I had to pick a target area I would have to forecast a triangle from FSD-YKN-SUX.
