6/26/2005 FCST: Northern Plains

[Justin Turcotte]

*Edit* MCS did manage to plow through eastern NoDak overnight, likely shifting original target area further south toward northeast SD. Outflow boundary at 14z is along a Mobridge, SD to Wahpeton, ND line. 12z NAM did a good job initializing this feature which will sag south slightly before stalling. Warm front in SD/MN should become better defined later in the day. The interection of these boundaries could make for an interesting play. Concern over high LCLs appears to have diminished. Helicity will be high along the boundaries enhancing tornado potential. There is a lot of grungy cloud around the area which could limit the instability. SWODY1 upgraded to Moderate which is reasonable given forecast shear and instability parameters.

 

[Glen Romine]

Really surprised by the lack of activity here. Signficant activity looking increasingly likely to affect northeast SD this evening with extreme instability and decent shear. While mid-level shear is somewhat uni-directional, decent low-level shear combined with convergent low-level boundaries certainly looks to be a primed environment for a significant tornado or two this evening across extreme northeast SD to extreme se ND. Hopefully a few chasers are out there in the field today.

Glen

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I have been watching a couple of those cells, one up in the Mcpherson co, just west of Aberdeen. Another nice cell that was just south of Bismark, ND. Ended up with a nice hook on it. So far I haven't seen any tornado reports but there has got to be some nice looking features on those storms up there...

They do look to continue to be severe and possibly tornadic throughout the Dakotas and Minnesota.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I would have to disagree with the chances for a significant tornado.

Although I do believe that mother nature always has some trick up her sleeve to go against our best forecasts, I dont think today is going to be a big tornado day.

SBCAPE just above 2000 in most places is not what I would consider extreme instability. The change in wind direction with height doesn't realy start until above the 700mb pressure surface. I do agree that there is the possibility for some supercells given the helicity values present and the instability... however the nature of this system will most likely only yield landspout type tornadoes.... or tornadoes that are short lived. Kinda like a cold-core low type situation.