6/25/04 FCST: Central High Plains


Friday looks to be the beginning (Thursday too, but higher LCLs) of a multiple-day period of Northwesterly flow severe weather setups on the high Plains of Colorado and surrounding areas. Moisture will still be somewhat limited on Friday (mid 50s dewpoints). If we can increase the surface flow a tad, the shear will be favorable for tornadoes. Instability will be limited by dewpoints and not-as-spectacular lapse rates. However, MLCAPE should still exceed 1000 J/kg. However, instability will increase toward the TX panhandle. Shear, albeit weak everywhere, will be most favorable north, where the 500 mb flow reaches approx 30 kts.

Actually I was originally logging on here to post about 6/24 because SPC up until about an hour ago was mentioning supercells and a few possible torns. I looked at the ETA and didn't see how that was exactly possible in Kansas and was going to inquire opinions here. However just before that I checked SPC again and they updated and eliminated the mention of tornadoes in KS. So perhaps a mute point.

As for 6/25 and northwest flow...is there anybody that likes or can use northwest flow for tornadoes?

Saturday a Better Day for Chasing


I agree with you on this one. SPC took the SLIGHT risk out for today. But they have left the SLIGHT risk area in the CO High Plains for Saturday. So rest up tonight, have a better chase day tomorrow!! 8) LJK.