6/21/07 NOW: NE SD KS IA MN MO

[MatthewCarman]

4 tornadoes have been added to the reports on the SPC page for IA. Looks like a nice line of storms in NE capable of qaurter sized hail and 60 MPH winds.

I am happy I saw penny to nickle sized hail for 10-12 minutes and winds of 50-60 MPH. It is like pullingn hair just to get a storm that strong in Newton.

How is the tornadic threat out west looking? No warnings as of yet for tornadoes and things look to be linng out in NE. Today was just not a very good day for toradoes. The 4 reported in Iowa were brief or short lived it sounds like. I am glad I saved my gas money for another day.

There is still plenty of day light for storms out west to get thier act together but with only a 5% chance and nothing yet tornadic I am sticking to my forecast of mostly hail and damaging winds out west but hey if your a "stormchaser" then you will be happy just seeing that. (I know I have made some people mad today and I apologize but I am just keeping it real)

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

The storm that has fired near Springview NE looks interesting, its in an airmass with 5000j/kg CAPE and highly sheared profile with decent backing, SIG TORN is up to a 4 in its general area.

 

[Joel Wright]

The cell just northwest of Cedar Rapids IA looks like it has a nice hook, and rotation can clearly be seen just by watching the loop on that cell. Whether it's at the surface is the question, but I'm guessing it is. If it maintains strength Cedar Rapids or even Iowa City (if it veers south) could be affected.

Report of 80mph wind along I-80 about 45 miles east of Des Moines along that bowing line segment.

 

[MatthewCarman]

The cell just northwest of Cedar Rapids IA looks like it has a nice hook, and rotation can clearly be seen just by watching the loop on that cell. Whether it's at the surface is the question, but I'm guessing it is. If it maintains strength Cedar Rapids or even Iowa City (if it veers south) could be affected.

Report of 80mph wind along I-80 about 45 miles east of Des Moines along that bowing line segment.

those storms in eastern IA look inpressive. for only a 2% chance of a tornado here in IA today and for having 4 being reported so far today I would say IA clearly verified for it's severe weather chances.

Currently storms capable of destructive winds in excess of 70 MPH near Cedar rapids and Iowa City.

 

[Chad Cowan]

The cell N of Basset NE is taking on a hook.. there has been significant rotation on the 2nd and 3rd tilts, and just recently seems to have rotation at the base. This is the area I noted for development in post #30 of this thread, and is very prime for supercells and possibly tornadoes.

FYI- impressive is spelled with an M

 

[MatthewCarman]

That storm north of Basset NE has BDZ of 66 and has VIL of 80 and tops are at 58kft.That is a inpressive storm and looks to be the only storm in NE or SD that could make a run at producing a tornado in the short term. I would think now that we are losing daylight the threat would decrease but if this storm stays strong and descrete mabey it can drop something.

EDIT: DBZ is now up to 68+. I must not be looking right because I do see the meso but I dont see strong rotation on the velocity scan. Mabey someone can point me in the right direction and show me where the rotation on this storm is? Base velocity shows not much. The storm is only warned for Nickle sized hail but it looks like it could produce hail larger than that. Mabey it is in a radar gap?

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I would think now that we are losing daylight the threat would decrease but if this storm stays strong and descrete mabey it can drop something. I would not be suprised if it was Tornado warned soon.

This area still has 2+ hours of Daylight and regardless I think the loss of daylight will have little negative impact on the storms as instibility present is great enough that even with the loss of surface heating suffiecent instibility will remain, infact if anything TD depressions will lower and with increasing LLJ the threat may increase.

EDIT: New development underway west of Valentine, while it will likely only impact cattle it will need to be closely monitored as parameters are maximized in the area EHI's greater then 8 and a SIG TORN of 7, it appears winds at 850mb are really backing nicely in a real focused area over you guessed it Cherry CO

Towers exploding near Valentine, just south of town a tower shot up from nothing to 55Kft in 10 minutes.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Cell near Basset NE now TOR warned. Be interesting to see if it produces a tornado.

I know the sun sets around 9:20 which would be almost 2 hours of daylight (If your on central time) left I assumed it was cloudy and a honest mistake on my part.

 

[Chad Cowan]

The Basset cell is taking on the classic 'flying eagle' echo. Mike U has been in position all day for this storm, I hope he's getting a great view.

Here is an interesting radar grab from 7:03... The top two panels are BR1 and SRV1, while the lower panels are BR3 and SRV3. Note the strong rotation on the 3rd tilt especially evident by the eye-like feature in the center of the rotation.

http://photos.clcimages.com/images/A_1/1/6/4/4611/Project1.jpg

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Guessing that storm in nc NE has a better chance at producing a tornado than anything in IA all day. (just keeping it real)

And as far as base velocity....the thing is a million miles from all radars. So, "base" will be way up there. Wish I were there. Course if I was, it wouldn't be anyway.

That area right there has to be the capital of southward moving tornadic supercells.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Guessing that storm in nc NE has a better chance at producing a tornado than anything in IA all day. (just keeping it real)

Even if it doesn't I'd take the structure I am sure it has over a rain obscured gustnado any day.

What a crazy updarft with That storm that is over Cherry County very near Valentine, went from nothing to 55k in under 10 minutes and now has topped the 60K ft mark. Guessing there is some pretty sig hail falling from that.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Guessing that storm in nc NE has a better chance at producing a tornado than anything in IA all day. (just keeping it real)

It looks like a pretty nice super cell on radar. Doplar radar is indicating a tornado with this storm.

 

[Kory Hartman]

SevereStudios.com chase team near Atkinson, NE.

Update for everyone. We just left Spencer, NE. Going to Midway, then over to Atkinson, NE to hopefully intercept this tornadic supercell. Mammatus on the ChaseCam right now. Great structure. Great storm.

Looks like we may have a wall cloud near the base of this storm... beautiful striations! Chase cam up!

 

[Kory Hartman]

possible funnel -- looks like 2/3rds of the way to the ground near atkinson, ne -- chase cam is on, but we are in trees and it is gray gray gray.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

It's tor warned. Man, that must be one big nasty wall of convection by Valentine.