NBrammer
Major severe weather outbreak expected Friday and Friday night. Very strong winds, possibly derechos, seem to be the main threat but tornadoes are still possible. (MO, not MS sorry)
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After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.
I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.
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From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.
Sincerely, Jeff D.
Phil Kurimski
EF1
I like the 12z model runs a bit better than the 00z runs. The new runs indicate there is a better chance for discrete supercells to form...rather than form a derecho right off the bat. Target area seems to be the Davenport area where there is a bit more directional shear than farther east.
Robert Dewey
EF5
18z NAM and GFS in better agreement. I'm in MI, so that's my area of concern. Things here aren't as clear cut; we'll have a warm front hanging around with monster instability just to the south. While wind fields aren't looking as strong as areas further south and west, we might have some better directional shear to work with.
I'm also not convinced that tomorrow morning's MCS will be a non-event. The 21Z RUC builds instability along and just ahead of it (from northern WI to IL), with tons of low level helicity to work with.
It'll be fun to watch, that's for sure.
I'm also not convinced that tomorrow morning's MCS will be a non-event. The 21Z RUC builds instability along and just ahead of it (from northern WI to IL), with tons of low level helicity to work with.
It'll be fun to watch, that's for sure.
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I like the idea of targeting northern IL. But things don't seem clear cut to me, and like today the convection from the previous night will probably have a big influence. Since I'm in Indiana right now I'll probably just see what things are like in the morning and adjust from there.
Jim Zandonai
After the IA bust today I'll be playing the I-39 coridoor and intercepting anything around here..IF something pops up. Still showing high cape in the area on Friday but depending on which model you follow NAM-GFS the highest capes go from S.Wi to C-IL.
Today saw a ton of potential and the cap won .Friday could be different and probably will be but if things get going early N.IL looks good but C-IL looks better esp later on..IMO
Today saw a ton of potential and the cap won .Friday could be different and probably will be but if things get going early N.IL looks good but C-IL looks better esp later on..IMO
John Farley
Supporter
Starting out from West Union, IA, where I ended up after yesterday's chase, I am heading south for a preliminary target around Canton, MO. NAM and RUC disagree somewhat on where precip will break out this afternoon, but that area has the best combination of CAPE and shear (which unfortunately is more unidirectional today), and it will allow for either going west into MO or east into IL depending on how things set up.
Ryan Wichman
EF3
IF I could chase today, I would target Centerville, IA. The 4km WRF and subsequent runs of the RUC are indicating initiation this afternoon in northern Missouri/Southern Iowa.
The ongoing MCS/convection along the I-80 corridor will likely shift the greatest tor threat a little bit further to the south today with boundaries created by this convection. The aforementioned area is forecasted to become strongly unstable as it has the past few days, the difference today being a strong forcing mechanism with better upper level support. Supercells are likely today, forming into multi-cluster type storms toward sunset. I don't see a large MCS/bow echo forming until near sundown according to the RUC and WRF. Should be a fruitful day for anyone on a storm which becomes rooted in the boundary layer.
The ongoing MCS/convection along the I-80 corridor will likely shift the greatest tor threat a little bit further to the south today with boundaries created by this convection. The aforementioned area is forecasted to become strongly unstable as it has the past few days, the difference today being a strong forcing mechanism with better upper level support. Supercells are likely today, forming into multi-cluster type storms toward sunset. I don't see a large MCS/bow echo forming until near sundown according to the RUC and WRF. Should be a fruitful day for anyone on a storm which becomes rooted in the boundary layer.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Today will hopefully be better than yesterday farther west.
The RUC shows a 4500-5000 CAPE with CIN eroded by 23z is present over W IL on the I-80 corridor and a 60 Knot H5 (500 MB) speed max from the W spreading over the area after 0z. 700 MB temps are around 10 C but with a stout 30-40 Knot flow from the WSW. The 850 LLJ kicks in after 0z at 40-50 Knots from the WSW depicting a damaging wind event afterwards.
RUC breaks out precip at 23z to 0z time frame in W IL, and surface shows a SSW to SW wind at that time. There is a boundary near or north of I-80 from previous convection with some SSE winds at this time (11 AM or so). This might be a possibility if a storm can first go near this boundary, and ahead of the weak cool front.
I think the area from Peoria and points northward might be a good start. Helicities still are around the 300 range because of the verring with height from SSW to WSW, so don't rule out NO supercells! Any storm isolated long enough can produce tornadoes.
Although this line of text from SPC (below) I did not find very encouraging...
Looks like even SPC is tasting 2009 ... Good luck to those going out.
Today will hopefully be better than yesterday farther west.
The RUC shows a 4500-5000 CAPE with CIN eroded by 23z is present over W IL on the I-80 corridor and a 60 Knot H5 (500 MB) speed max from the W spreading over the area after 0z. 700 MB temps are around 10 C but with a stout 30-40 Knot flow from the WSW. The 850 LLJ kicks in after 0z at 40-50 Knots from the WSW depicting a damaging wind event afterwards.
RUC breaks out precip at 23z to 0z time frame in W IL, and surface shows a SSW to SW wind at that time. There is a boundary near or north of I-80 from previous convection with some SSE winds at this time (11 AM or so). This might be a possibility if a storm can first go near this boundary, and ahead of the weak cool front.
I think the area from Peoria and points northward might be a good start. Helicities still are around the 300 range because of the verring with height from SSW to WSW, so don't rule out NO supercells! Any storm isolated long enough can produce tornadoes.
Although this line of text from SPC (below) I did not find very encouraging...
Looks like even SPC is tasting 2009 ... Good luck to those going out.
