6/19/07 NOW: KS,TX,OK,CO,NE

[Dave Kaplow]

Surprised there isnt a tornado warning out for the storm in Lane Co, KS right now. Look like the rotation has increase over the last couple of radar scans. Storm motion still to the S maybe back building to the SW as more convection seems to fire on the SW flank.

What was originally a supercell cluster consolidated into an absolute BEAST of a supercell. Very strong rotation over a huge area, seen from DDC radar the hook alone was the size of some entire supercells. But the area of rotation has continued to tighten over the last couple of scans, with the hook becoming tighter and more spiral shaped... I would imagine a warning is imminent. A very impressive cell.

Edit: I was thinking the same thing about reports from the ground - radar never gives the whole story. Still, I would expect a warning soon if the rotational tightening continues.

 

[Doyle McIntosh]

This monster is huge in KS. I hope there are some chasers on it that will post some pics tonight. The only reason I would bet its not tor warned is because its just not looking like what its looking like to us on radar.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Storm in Lane County Kansas 6:05 PM

Based on DDC Radar shear over 138 MPH with damaging winds and possible tornado now with this storm. The tornado may be rain wrapped back on the NW side of the hook.

6:22 PM Now looks like OFB generated by storm pushing south of the storm. Rotation may be elevated not reaching to the ground.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

The evolution of this storm in KS has been fascinating to watch on radar. There was a big RFD surge which was probably responsible for the tightening of the rotation. The RFD also appears to have spun up a secondary area of rotation east of the original one. But apparently none of this was enough to produce a tornado warning, let alone a tornado. The storm seems to be cycling at the moment... Now we'll see if it spins up another big meso and hook like the last one.

 

[Jim Tang]

The storm is likely outflow dominant now and thus the tornado threat looks less now than it did 30 minutes ago.

 

[Joel Taylor]

Just sat down to look at what was going on and saw that storm just west of Dodge City (8:07 currently). The whole thing is rotating around what appears to be a persistent "eye" like feature if you look at DDC base reflectivity. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this as well defined as it is in this storm.

 

[mike scantlin]

i noticed this "eye" in the satellite imagery. i didnt think it was rotating around it but it looked interesting.

 

[Dick McGowan]

If you throw a loop on reflectivity, a storm in between Pratt and Byers in Pratt county, KS...moves maybe 2 miles in an hour and a half (maybe more GRlevel 3 only archives it out that far)

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Interesting dual bow-echo over the southern Plains this evening/overnight. The merger of the two squall lines has lead to a massive surge in convection across extreme southwestern Oklahoma. I wish I had Level II data to really get a good look at velocity data, but there is a very large area of >71 kt inbound flow on the 0.5 degree BV scan (and, now, a huge area of >71kt outbound as the gust front slides by FDR). Unfortunately, I haven't seen new mesonet data for most of the state (including southwestern OK) in the past hour... Ambient / environmental flow aloft is extremely anemic, but extreme instability and mesoscale processes apparently are yielding this high-end wind event (derecho event, per latest WDU). Heads up SPS!

Given the size of the >71kt outbounds on FDR on BV1, I would think that there'd be embedded areas of >80-85kt winds.
EDIT: Latest from OUN notes winds of 80-100mph are possible ahead of the bow echo, including the city of SPS.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

SPS had a gust of 82 knots at 718z:

KSPS 200718Z 33049G82KT 1 3/4SM -TSSN BR 21/18 A3005 RMK AO2 PK WND 31082/0709 P0000 $

What a derecho!! I would have to say this classifies as an MCC (mesoscale convective complex). there have been persistent -80 to -85C convective cold cloud tops with this thing for many hours... and a tremendous area of -70C or colder on IR. Wow.