6/18/09 FCST: IA/MN/NE/WI/IL

[Andrew Stoller]

If something does pop in central Iowa along the outflow boundary/pseudo warm front, it could get nasty. SPC/RUC mesoanalysis has a bulls eye right in the center of Iowa. 1KM EHI is 8, 3KM EHI is 10, supercell composite is 28, with 70 knots of deep layer sheer! Up to 5,000 J/KG CAPE with little to no remaining cap.

RAP's RUC anaylsis does show isolated precip breaking out in northwest Iowa/southwest MN around 00Z.

Visible satellite looks capped though - low level bubbly cumulus that just isn't popping through. 700 mb temps are 12C presently.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

PS: Be careful driving to your targets, we just passed a small pile-up North of Peoria, IL on I-74. Believe we spotted Andrew Pritchard in the line of rear-ended vehicles, hope he is alright and can somehow salvage the chase. Be Safe!

You are correct, Terrence. While traveling through a construction zone on Interstate 74 near Peoria, IL a woman apparently not paying attention slammed into the back end of my car, then plowed into 2 other parked construction vehicles. My car is almost certainly totaled, but other than some stiff necks and backs no serious injuries aside from my car and laptop which is not working anymore likely due to impact. She was issued multiple citations, and will be buying me a new chase vehicle. Too bad I loved that car and wasn't looking to upgrade! In fact, had just put $600 worth of work into the car LAST WEEK after the Iowa pothole debacle. I hate this state.

Believe it or not though... after 2 hours on the side of the interstate dealing with all the paper work, we quickly picked up Colin Davis' car, and he, Jarrod Cook and myself are still somehow going to try and salvage the chase.

Still really liking the Waterloo, IA area. Not sure what you saw Dan, but to me it looked like the 12z NAM broke out plenty of precipitation in eastern and central Iowa by evening. 5500 j/kg underneath 70 knots effective shear and nicely backed SE winds... can't imagine storms not producing tornadoes if they can break the cap. After totaling my car and breaking my laptop in the collision, and then talking myself into continuing the chase I certainly hope this is not the traditional "maxed out parameters Iowa summer cap bust".

NAM qpf forecast for 21z-0z

 

[John Farley]

In Cedar Rapids now, about to push on to Waterloo. RUC initiates storms west of Waterloo along the boundary, in an area with EHI of 10! Probably will go west from Waterloo, but maybe north if something has fired farther north by then.

Glad to hear you are OK and still in the chase, Andrew.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

My chase partner and I are in waterloo too..waiting for the spark to set off everything and then will go from there.. it has become overcast here now but still everything looks primed..Ruc showing Cape values enough to power any severe storms...Yeah this would really be a downer on cap bust with this much potential..still though something could happen soon.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I am also sitting somewhere off I-35 in a shell gas station lot. Latest RUC shows the cap holding well past 0Z and I do not like this at all. As others have mentioned all mesoanalysis parameters are cenetered over this region so if something pops it will go bonkers. Ugh.

 

[Phil Kurimski]

ACARS sounding in the area show a cap of +22 at 788mb...does not look like its happening today in IOWA :-(

 

[Andrew Stoller]

ACARS sounding in the area show a cap of +22 at 788mb...does not look like its happening today in IOWA :-(

That's a pressure cooker that's welded shut!

Latest RUC doesn't break out anything as far as precip.

 

[John Farley]

Boundary (outflow boundary/warm front) appears to be just south of U.S. 20 west of the Waterloo-Cedar Falls area. I am sitting in Cedar Falls and have seen some attempts at TCU to the south, probably along the boundary, for the past half hour or so, but nothing breaking through yet. Not sure it will with that cap, but if it does, it should be quite a show. Not ready to give up yet; more than 2 hours of daylight left. Most of the WFOs around here thought the cap would break in their afternoon discussions; we'll see.

 

[jamesmseitz]

It did this yesterday too.... but a few storms did go around 7 PM. I am sitting here in Clear Lake (I-35 mile marker 194)... It will not get completely dark til almost 9:30 pm up here....

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

What a bummer so far - all kinds of tornadoes where I'm from yesterday but I was on a family vacation (about 5 hours south of home) and missed out on the action...now today I get to chase but it looks like a cap bust. Maybe tomorrow will be better though

 

[Ben McMillan]

CAP may be breaking in Fillmore County, MN. Also, Howard County, IA is showing returns on La Crosse nexrad.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Seeing some blobs of convection to our northeast. We're going for 'em. At this point, they seem to be the only possibility of a show in the area.

EDIT: Eh. Never mind.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

Towers have been trying to go up north of Waterloo for the last hour or 2 but no luck with breaking through the cap so far...however, there is a stronger looking updraft east of waverly that looks like it has some potential...

**Edit**
Then again, updraft dies, new one tries to take its place and looks good for about 10 minutes, then that one dies too...no luck today I guess

 

[Josh Richardson]

Yep, thats the same story up north of Mason City as well. Our whole caravan has called it a night, thankfully Im only 15 minutes from home...lol. Oh well, maybe tomorrow.

 

[David Draun]

If anything is going to go, its going to be in N central Iowa on the nose of a 6000 CAPE bullseye. LFC in this area is 1000 meters. There could be a tornado on any supercell that forms in this area with LCL height also at about 1000 meters.

Sigtor parameters are at a very nasty 8-10 NW of Davenport, IA. It would seem development is imminent, but the satellite picture pretty much shows a general lack of vigorous convective clouds in the area. Blue sky bustola underway?