6/14/09 FCST: CO/NE/TX/OK/SD/WY/KS/MT

[Warren Faidley]

I guess we find out today if the "V2" curse is a reality...lol.

Initial target will be Liberal, KS and the western most fringes of the mysterious, gigantic cloud free hole over central/west-central KS. Cloud cover will be a major negative issue for tornado possibilities later today. Target will be refined by outflow boundaries and the possible formation of a better dryline today. Of course, the cloud free areas may not be the most favored areas in terms of dynamics and surface support, but that is the story of this funked out year!

W.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Today CO/KS

Warren already in Liberal stayed here last night.


Filmed a couple small tornados Saturday in SE-CO/SW-KS great storm structure.

The WF is south of Liberal now the RUC and the new 12KM WRF moves the WF from DDC-Lamar by 21Z with a DL bulge into SW KS from SW of Johnson City CO to Liberal at 0Z.

Storms Pop west of Springfield-Lamar WF and near liberal ahead of DL bulge.

Monday looks like OFB/DL intersection north of DDC area.

SPC will probably upgrade to moderate risk on Monday with a good chance of tornados.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I'll likely target the same areas as yesterday - Pueblo, CO and points to the northeast. A surface low looks to ramp up yet again today around Trinidad and push moisture against the front range along I25 in CO and provide moisture convergence and orographic lift to initiate storms. The dryline area in CO looks to be a bit further north then yesterday - north of the raton mesa, so I'd expect convective acitivity to be along hwy 50 and points to the east/northeast.

Follow it east into western KS and hope for the best!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Today's forecast and target looks to be gelling quite nicely, as noted by Jeff. Glad he is here, "Mr. Tornado Magnet...." lol.

Agree about tomorrow, my last day of regular Plains operations for 09'. Could be a super day and maybe Mother Nature's parting gift for an odd season.

W.

 

[Scott Hammel]

We will be heading out here shortly targeting SE CO as well. We're probably going to head out I-70 to Limon and then duck south on 287. RUC has a nice patch of 2500 J/kg CAPE out E later and the moisture is definitely returning today. Granted the shear could be a little better but 35-40kts could get this done I guess. Anyway, I like 287 from Kit Carson down to Lamar. Good luck today everyone!

 

[Derrick Herndon]

Target is Imperial, NE. ETA is 2 pm so maybe we can get a little farther West and South after that. At any rate the boundaries not quite as well defined but should be sufficient low level convergence and heating. Both RUC and NAM have picked up the CAPE a bit here from yesterdays fcst and the RUC at least paints an area of higher 1 km helicity. Will adjust South if we have the time. Another positive is that SW Neb will be in the RRQ of the jet streak moving thru Northern Neb and ahead of subtle jet streak coming into SE Colorado around 00Z, though this progresses East after 21Z. Perhaps not quite kissing jets but maybe enough to enhance divergence. Have to admit this long drive is tough after busting on the long drive to Pratt from Omaha last week. Guess I am just a sucker

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Ughhhhhh, this mid level cloud cover coming into southeast CO from the southwest might totally hamper things in CO. Interesting to note on the satellite images is a feature moving south through western KS. Gravity wave perhaps?

 

[Warren Faidley]

MSD just issued for targeted region.

Looking good in grunge free areas ne of surface low, e.g., just w/sw of DDC and GCK. Looks like early initiation possible today.

W.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I think I'm going to stick with the central to E portion of the TX Panhandle. Better clearing along with adequate moisture will yield high Cape values later on today. Tulia is currently 88/60, so the daytime heating is getting going fairly well. I just don't like the cloud cover in the Northern half of the panhandle.

SPC Mesoanalysis is already showing 3500 cape in the South central/south east portions of the area. The shear may be a bit better up north, but I'll play the higher cape values further south.

RUC forecast for the central panhandle this evening shows the possibility for an isolated tornado or two. EHI values are off the charts, and the LLJ gets going also.

For now, my target is my comfy chair in front of the computer. Good luck to all of you, and please stay safe!

EDIT: Later target may be an area from Pampa to Clarendon.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yes, looks like a second area, possibly with more potential will exist further west into the Texas panhandle. Something to watch as the northern target is becoming, once more, grunge infested.

W.