6/13/09 FCST: CO/NE/TX/OK

[Jeff Piotrowski]

CO Today

Currently in Limon headed for Sterling area.

I like NE CO top of ridge and on the edge of the 700mb cap 7-9 range also the cooler air at 500mb 12-14C per SPC Meso page.

The winds are breezy at of the SE lots of moisture here in Limon.

The 12Z models WRF and the 15Z Ruc looks like NE CO SE/WY POP's first Then after or near 0Z something big pop’s in the La Junta area on the nose of the high theta air from NE/NM making its way north with the low level jet and phasing in the 500mb wave after 0Z.

Maybe Tony L could comment on today.

 

[Chris Lott]

Just looked at the forecast sounding for Childress,TX and I have to say it does look good. Backed winds at the surface and a nice curved hodo. CAPE forecasted at about 5000 j/kg. If a storm can form and move in a SE direction, where I believe the air will be more unstable, it could go nuts. RUC forecasting over 7,000 CAPE for the Mineral Wells area again, with dew's already up to 75 and temps around 90 in Mineral Wells.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The latest RUC runs are really pulling me to either stay put here at home, or head south towards the Raton Mesa. The RUC is breaking out some big convection on the Palmer Divide north of CO Spgs. and moving it east towards Limon, but there also is some serious moisture convergence further south along the front range, north of the Raton Mesa. Will wait and see.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I believe several target areas exist for this afternoon and evening strectching from WY and NE down into CO, NM, TX. However, if I was in fact chasing I would start somewhere around Trinidad, CO to Branson, CO. This morning's mesoscale analysis shows SBCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 j/kg under the presence of steep low to mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 c/km. 700mb temps. of 9-10 c should keep the environment CAP aiding in substantial instability before it breaks as better forcing arrives w/ 500mb winds increasing to 40-50knts. The 16z RUC has surface winds out of the SE in the general area, thus any developing supercells should be long-lived and well organized given the presence of good inflow. The 200m2s-2 0-1km storm relative helicity also catches my eye in the potential for tornadogenisis.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Target for today: Limon area, to be defined to La Junta to NE Colorado as soon as convective modes and inititaion are determined.

Lack of an organized dryline push further south (ATM) was the determining factor to choose northern target over southwestern areas. Some concern that initiation will be further west than thought, only complicating the forecast.

W.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Convection trying to fire to my southwest on the front range west of Denver. I am sitting near Wiggins, CO in Morgan county. Atmosphere immediately east/northeast of me appears primed....just hoping for a storm to move into that area later. The latest RUC has a nice environment in norteast CO/southwest NE by late this afternoon and early evening.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Still sitting at home in Thornton, roughly 35 miles SW of Greg. Agree with Warren that further west than Limon may be needed early on. I can see tcu trying to develop in the foothills to my W/SW. Watch box coming soon and think a run up I-76 into southern Weld county and Morgan county will be the play. Ready to leave, just waiting.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Initiation is underway north of Trinidad, CO, with cu and faint echos showing up. Composite induces go through the roof in south eastern CO north of the Raton Mesa later this afternoon. Will likely head out the door momentarily and head south on I25, with the likelihood of creeping back north towards Limon on CO71 as convection initiates along the Palmer Divide.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Target for today: Limon area, to be defined to La Junta to NE Colorado as soon as convective modes and inititaion are determined.

Lack of an organized dryline push further south (ATM) was the determining factor to choose northern target over southwestern areas. Some concern that initiation will be further west than thought, only complicating the forecast.

W.

 

[Scott Hammel]

SPC has a mesoscale discussion out covering from S WY through E-CNTRL CO. If I were not heading into work in an hour, I would definitely be heading out I-76 toward Ft. Morgan. The southern target from Palmer Divide down to SE CO is also tempting and should start initiating late afternoon. RUC has the CAP eroding later as well, so I wouldn't be concerned with that. I suppose there's no 'wrong' target today as both are looking primed. Good luck to those out there today. I'll be keeping an eye on things as much as I can from work. Will be out tomorrow for sure...

 

[Matthew Piechota]

convection starting to go off dryline in floyd county, TX

with a MD just out from SPC for that area, watch likely

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I'm out the door. Target: Pueblo. RUC/SPC Mesoanalysis has major moisture convergence funneling into the Arkansas river valley and points south towards Trinidad. Supercell Composite is now 4 and climbing.