Today's setup looks to have some major complications to it that I don't think the models are handling that well. One problems that models are definitely having is when and where convection will initiate. They were having that problem yesterday and it seems to be happening again. Both days, the models are showing no cap over a very large area with precip firing all over the place. I'm starting to wonder if, like yesterday, storms will have trouble initiating along the dryline in OK. From just looking at the soundings, I ruled out the cap being a major and/or only issue, due to the fact the 700 mb temps aren't really that high and the fact the convective temperatures in the area weren't too high also. What I think may have been the main problem yesterday and also might end up being the deal breaker today is the subsidence that is over the region. Per the 12z OKC sounding, there is an inversion that is located at the 550 mb level. At this same time, there is also an inversion in the 650 mb level in the AMA sounding. These are signs of some subsidence in the area. Couple that with the fact that the early morning shortwave up in NE/SD has already moved through, and there will be shortwave ridging behind it and also some larger scale ridging between that system and the much larger shortwave back in CA, which can be seen on the 12z 500 mb and particularly the 700 mb upper air maps, and I'm worried subsidence is really gonna kill today's setup. There has to be a reason why all the morning convection the models were forecasting didn't end up developing, and I'm thinking that may be the reason.
With all that said, the morning convection not firing will definitely help out with instability this afternoon. If enough instability can develop, and maybe if there is the presence of a minor wave in the larger scale flow, then storms will still be able to develop right before dark despite all the subsidence that will be occurring in the area. Storm Riders will be heading out in W. OK and be stationed out there for a while just in case something does end up going up. We just don't believe at this time the chances of something going up before dark are very good.
