6/13/09 FCST: CO/NE/TX/OK

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like a big day in eastern Colorado if everything pans out. PUB and DEN WSO's have been discussing the potential for several days now.

Favorable helicities, south to SE inflow and possibly a well-timed shortwave. Maybe this time there will be warmer surface inflow and lower LCL's to enhance tornadogenesis. I suspect the target area (like on Thursday) will be dictated by those areas with the best surface heating. Maybe V2 will get a nice closing party.

W.
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[Skip Talbot]

I agree Warren, eastern Colorado looks like it could definitely see some play on Saturday, and I have been watching this earea for the past few days.

I'm actually focusing more on the TX panhandle now, however. It looks like we'll have a triple point play here with a stationary boundary/warm front draped across the area with a bulging dryline to the south. Cape is forecast to be in the vicinity of 3000 J/Kg here and 12z WRF also has the bulk of the 500 mb shortwave positioned over the area at 0z. With the best shear and instability combos along with initating boundaries, I believe this area might be the best play for tomorrow. The 4km WRF breaks out a storm just before 0z. LCLs are not bad at all along the warm front boundary and we have some locally enhanced directional shear here too. If a storm can stick to the boundary it should have an enhanced tornado threat. The only problem I see here is the low level shear is a little light, but there is still good veering with height.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Saturday's outlook has squashed mtn hiking plans, but the upshot is that my wife and I are looking for a close chase opp. I am not quite as excited about it after seeing the 12z runs vs last night's 0z's, but still watching it pretty closely. With all the moisure that's fallen north of I-70 the last few days, achieving low/mid 50 dp's on a S/SE surface flow should not be difficult at all + good directional shear coupled with a potential Denver cyclone + the advertised shortwave should keep CO in play for Saturday.

My favored area at this point would be either side of a line from DIA to Greeley. The downside if this verifies is the farmers in this area don't need any more weather as the last 5 days has damaged a lot of crops beyond repair due to flooding and/or hail.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm not sure about Saturday, it appears OK for Colorado standards with low/mid 50 dews but there is little shear at 500mb and at 850mb though the directional shear will be good it won't be as strong as previous days. I am going to sit this one out but if I was chasing I'd target further north on SE WY/NE Pan where helicity is a bit greater and the 850s are decent with 25-30knts out of the SE.

As for Sunday now that is a totally different story!

 

[Ken Johnson]

TX and OK could probably be added to this threat. The 4cast hodo per the 00z NAM out of sps is strongly curved. Combined with strong instability. 0-1KM SRH is 233. If storms could stay discrete, then a few tornadoes might be possible.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Based on the 0z WRF I'm going to throw out a preliminary target of Shamrock, TX. The cap is gone at 21z and there is a forecasted dryline bulge here with dewpoints approaching 70 and surface temps at about 90. The dryline then retreats west and surface temps drop to lower our LCLs. Given the good veering with height and moderate to strong instability I expect some large supercells here, and later on as the evening low level jet kicks in and our LCLs drop, a tornado threat too. That is if the cap can hold off long enough. It looks like it starts to fill back in after 0z which will cause our storms to go elevated. Departing from Chicago now!

 

[Matthew Piechota]

hey all! new to the forum. I am from batavia,IL about 40 miles west of chicago. currently attending COD for meteorology and getting more and more addicted to chasing each time I go!

anyways for tomorrow, for a target area I like somewhere around SPS. nice hodo and low level shear is better there then it is further northwest up by shamrock or elk city area. target area could change while looking at new data in the morning. very nice LLJ kicks in tomorrow evening which will def help out if we can get a nice supercell in tomorrows enviroment which is a good possibility.

COD trip is out there and I will be nowcasting all day for them. will have more of my thoughts in the morning.


Matt

 

[Patrick Martin]

TX/OK should definitely be added to this thread given the much better severe environment there, not to mention the moderate risk introduced this morning.

For me, I'll be playing northeast CO b/c it's my backyard. Skies this morning are clear north of I-70 in a box from Denver to Limon to Akron to Fort Collins. Dews have held in the low 50's and S/SE winds plus plenty of ground moisture will more than offset any mixing. Shear profiles improve with time between 18z and 0z and the timing of a shortwave coming in during the afternoon will aid initiation. A few rotating storms should go up by early afternoon and I'd expect some hailers with a possible tornado or 2.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Added OK/TX and NE To Thread

Per morning RUC, I still think CO may have a look at some nice Supercells. RUC is more generous with the Temps and Dews, which really helps with the LCL's and Convective Instability.

I guess I would pick the CO/NE target, in SW Nebraska.. Bulk shear values are higher here, and upslope seems to be about the only gaurantee this year..

Initial Target: Sidney, NE

 

[Eric Treece]

I am agreeing with Brandon and his forecast. Nice dew pts here in CO forecasted to be in the mid to upper 50's...............more than enough to do the job here. Looks like there should be some decent upslope flow as well. I have had great luck playing the low risk targets this season, so why change? I am going to target Limon then will have great road options from there after things get going.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I definitely prefer the RUC model over the others for the high plains setup, always a good thing to see 2500+ j/kg CAPES out there, nice SSW flow at 40+kts in SW CO right now should trigger tihngs kind of early. I got a late start, but am haulin West for the Sterling-Kimball area...

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Chase Target: Childress, TX

Reasoning: All the models are breaking out precip in and around Childress by 0z. CAPE aoa 3000 j/kg should be more than sufficient for explosive development, provided the cap cooperates. I also like that there's what looks to be some sort of a quasi-dryline bulge WSW of Childress by 21z or so. Will go to Childress now, and adjust from there as needed.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I came up to Colorado two days ago to chase, and today was the day I was really looking forward to. This morning I saw the moderate risk down in the Texas panhandle and was tempted to head that way. After looking over the model data I see no reason now to leave Colorado. I don't like backed 850 winds to west/southwest 500 flow. I also have concerns with the very warm 700 temps.

I have decided to stick to my guns and play the upslope flow setup. Skies have cleared out this morning with temps now climbing through the 60s to near 70 already with dewpoints from 52-54 with higher dewpoints to the east. I am hoping to see surface winds back more than they are right now. I might head further north to the WY/NE/CO border.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Complicated forecast today with lots of hidden potential over two obvious areas. Confucius says: "Watching subtle details will pay off big time today." Lack of specific details with initiation, etc., noted in local WSO discussions and HWO's illustrate complexities. Target area ATM is a monster area covering NW Texas panhandle to Limon, CO. Various RUC, sat and especially surface features to determine final target decision in the next 30-40 minutes. Good luck to all and V2 on their last day.

W.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Based on the latest RUC I am liking the NE New Mexico area. This is where there is a little bit greater shear and you also have the upslope you have in Colorado and Wyoming but with an intense dryline bulge. CAPE should be decent with values about 3000 j/kg over this area. I also like the stronger 500mb winds mainly because of all of the chases the last few weeks with a lack there of and 0-3km helicity at 500 m2/s2 along with the 0-1km helicity at 200+ m2/s2. Another thing is you have High Plains Magic and Caprock Magic!

My target would be Tucumcari, NM. Good luck to everyone out there.