6/13/04 NOW: MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES

[Robert Dewey]

Storms currently firing in MI, with a MDT risk and tornado watch now in effect... Latest storm north of GRR looks like it could be trying to put down a tornado, but no tornado warnings are in effect...

Robert

 

[AlDanks]

There's a tornado warning now. Storm relative radar indicates there might be a little bit of rotation on the storm. Nice hook showing on the TV doppler radar. Too far, moving too fast to chase from here. It would take 2 hours to be on it.

I'm not sure this is the storm to chase today anyway. I'm thinking the one's in front of the cold front will be the ones.

Al

 

[Robert Dewey]

Getting worried that things may be too capped off from just north of a GRR to FNT line, southward. DTX 18Z sounding indicates a pretty good cap, with relatively warm mid level temps.

Latest 18Z RUC brings the shortwave into MI, probably cooling mid level temps some, combined with continued SFC heating, should prove to be enough to break the CAP, hopefully. Shear is pretty good in lower MI, with good directional shear the farther east one goes, with DTX VAD showing good backing of the SFC winds, as is GRR...

Hopefully storms can initiate al

 

[rdale]

DTX surface temps are only in the low-mid 70's so I wouldn't count that "cap" of 1*C as valid. I'm not terribly excited about any more TOR's other than with that initial line (not seeing why DTX upgraded the Midland to a TOR as it doesn't look any different now than before). I can picture a line developing over the next hour or so near Lake Mich and being a good hail / wind threat.

- Rob

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
DTX surface temps are only in the low-mid 70's so I wouldn't count that \"cap\" of 1*C as valid. I'm not terribly excited about any more TOR's other than with that initial line (not seeing why DTX upgraded the Midland to a TOR as it doesn't look any different now than before). I can picture a line developing over the next hour or so near Lake Mich and being a good hail / wind threat.

- Rob

Yeah, a squall line would be fine with me, just as long as I see something...

Tornado threat looks decent to me, at least from LAN eastward...DTX VAD shows good directional shear, with SFC winds becoming SSE in the past hour or so. The profiler in Wolcott, IN shows 50knts getting pretty low, just above the 700mb level, but no directional shear. If those mid level winds were to overspread eastern lower MI, it would enhance helicity (if the SFC flow remained SSE).

It could still be all linear though, with a minimal tornado threat...Bow echo and supercell environments often overlap significantly, so this could just be a case of bow echoes, with an isolated supercell, or vice-versa...Thats why I enjoy the weather, you just never know!

Robert

 

[rdale]

"at least from LAN eastward...DTX VAD shows good directional shear, with SFC winds becoming SSE in the past hour or so."

DTX does but GRR and IWX do not, so unless something forms right now that airmass will be off to the east by the time anythying moves in.

"overspread eastern lower MI, it would enhance helicity (if the SFC flow remained SSE). "

But the only place it's SSE is in that pocket near Detroit and in the northern half - everything else down here (including DTX) is due S or SSW.

"Thats why I enjoy the weather, you just never know"

Sure do - when it's all done ;>

 

[Ben Pinette]

I'm still holding out for an isolated sup ahead of the cold front. Not a heck of alot of shear to work with, but I'll take what I can get. It is starting to look like more of a straight-line threat to KZO east to DTX with FROPA.

 

[rdale]

I thinking that the stuff now into SW Mich now forming south of I-94 could be the ones for us!

 

[Ben Pinette]

Public safety reporting a possible TOR in Bay County, MI. Reports of mobile homes rolled over in the Monitor Twp area.

 

[rdale]

After going up and down in appearance it REALLY looked good after moving into the Bay Co area... Winds clearly more SSE to even SE in the thumb.

- Rob

 

[Ben Pinette]

It looks a little less organized now out over the Bay. I would think it'll strenghten a little as it approaches Huron County in the next 10-15 minutes

 

[Robert Dewey]

0136 PM HAIL 3 W GOWEN 43.25N 85.36W
06/13/2004 3.00 INCH KENT MI PUBLIC

Thats pretty significant for MI standards...

Robert

 

[rdale]

...but it's public... If Michigan firefighters can report dime sized hail as softball sized (earlier this week) I have no idea what the untrained public can do ;> Not that I completely doubt it - just doesn't seem likely to only have fallen once when the storm looked much better down the way.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
...but it's public... If Michigan firefighters can report dime sized hail as softball sized (earlier this week) I have no idea what the untrained public can do ;> Not that I completely doubt it - just doesn't seem likely to only have fallen once when the storm looked much better down the way.

Yeah, they have a simple equation for that - Divide the reported hail size by .5 to get the actual size...LOL. That makes me wonder what the NWS was thinking when the hail report from Aurora (last year?), came in, with reports of volleyball sized hail crashing through peoples roof!

Looks like storms are firing up on the western side of the state!

Robert

 

[Robert Dewey]

Check out this sounding from CAPS Analysis at 19Z...Instability seems way overdone...

[Broken External Image]:http://www.caps.ou.edu/wx/p/20040613/r/neus/adas/1900Z/snd/KDTW-snd.png

Robert