6/11/05 TALK: S Plains

Tornado watch issued for western half of OK/TX panhadles and eastern NM down to Lubbock

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2005

TORNADO WATCH 460 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC017-069-079-111-115-117-165-189-205-219-279-303-305-341-359-
369-375-381-421-437-445-501-120200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0460.050611T2000Z-050612T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAILEY CASTRO COCHRAN
DALLAM DAWSON DEAF SMITH
GAINES HALE HARTLEY
HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOORE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
SHERMAN SWISHER
 
Tower in Deaf Smith Co. showing a 35 dBZ low level return...be interesting to see what this thing can do.
 
Looks like the panhandle is finally starting to light up. I guess my preference would be for the cells in southern Randall county - assuning one eventually dominates - as the cell in Potter county might struggle too much despite the better low-level shear. Noting a series of cells have tried to establish themeselves northwest of this boundary - and all have died rather quickly. Higher elvation scans shows the Potter cell is rather shallow. Could perhaps see one of the cells further south latching on to the boundary evident in the base scan reflectivity southeast of AMA and ride out further east where the low-level wind field is a bit stronger and could improve chances for a tornado in northern Briscoe to Hall county. Of course - I'm probably completely wrong, lol.

Glen
 
That storm just to the west of Amarillo is showing a TVS and Meso as of the 6:04 EDT radar. Visually, there is a nice couplet. (WeatherTap.) Dave Lewison and Scott McPartland are heading toward it along with Charles Edwards. And a tornado warning just came out!

Bill Hark
 
Ok - the cell I liked in Randall county I'd note has a reported tornado near Happy :) j/k, yeah - it will be interesting to see if a report can come out of the AMA cell. It is looking better than before - but I'm still preferring the cell to the southeast in the long-run.

Glen
 
Several tornadoes reported west of AMA and south of AMA with a few different supercells in the panhandle. There was a tornado-warned storm immediately west/northwest of AMA, but rotation appears to have weakened at this time. Supercell in northern Deaf Smith county appears to have merger with some weaker convection to it's east, and we'll see how that supercell recovers. Otherwise, nice supercell with strong rotation in southwestern Armstrong, extreme northeastern Swisher counties northeast of Tulia. Rotation is evident on radar with this supercell, but not overly impressive attm. It seems that the supercells haven't been able to maintain low-level rotation for very long.

Overall flow in the area is pretty weak at all levels, with 15kts at 850mb, 10-20 kts at 700mb, 25-35kts at 500mb... The directional shear is very nice, however, so I'm not surprised to see decent low-level rotation and tornadoes from time-to-time. With 30-45kts deep-layer shear and 2500-3000 CAPE, I'd expect the supercells threat to remain for a while. Mesoanalysis showing SRH near the supercell south/southeast of AMA isn't as great as the cells to the west of AMA, but it's isolated and already established.
 
Looks like we are seeing our MCS starting to take shape. Now to see how far north it goes before making the turn out of the panhandle. Convection in Oklahoma has been having issues getting going. Two decent cells right now in Dewey Co near Taloga/Seiling...the other moving along the OK/TX border in Roger Mills Co.
 
Those two cells are a thing of beauty (on radar). Two flying eagles chasing each other in west Tx I really wish I was there. The dryline has started back west and the cluster of convection should start to push out the area and hopefully leave Ok alone until tom. Can't wait to see the reports from those two cells.
 
Yup, the exact same place I was chasing yesterday. :cry:
Oh well, from what I've seen, at least the tail end of that convection in what appeared to be trying to line up down to Lubbock has dissipated.

Let's hope that trend continues and the dryline keeps backing up. (Leave OK alone!)

Reading a lot of reports on AMA discussions on spotters reporting numerous tornadoes out of those storms. Also hearing reports of major flooding. No surprise. I-40 was covered in water yesterday, so I'm certain flash flooding is a continuing problem near AMA and points east/southeast... something to keep in mind for tomorrow. Most of northwest OK and the eastern TX panhandle has seen major rainfall and is experiencing minor flooding, so those section-lines are gonna be slick and hazardous tomorrow.

Perhaps just a taste of what's to come for tomorrow (I hope).

Energy still appears to be approaching/rounding the basin. :wink:
 
We saw three or four tornadoes in the Wayside area this evening: a narrow needle tornado, a fair-sized elephant trunk (which was in the distance under an occluding meso), then later a fully condensed cone on the ground. EricN, ScottB, and JasonP may have observed a fourth tornado immediately preceding the needle funnel, but I was dealing with cameras and didn't see it. Video grabs and a few stills to come later tonight.
 
Saw a quick white narrow tornado west of wayside as I got a glimpse of it before it occluded. Didn't even have time to get a shot of it. Later got one that had a brief twin with it south of Wayside and got video of it from about half mile away. Will have the video posted shortly! TX Panhandle rides again!
 
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