6/11/05 TALK: S Plains

Shane Adams

Quite disheartening to see there's not even a thread started for today, along with the fact there were absolutely zero reports from yesterday in the Plains (before mine). The chasers who've been having career days all last week probably did laundry yesterday while the rest of us took what table scraps were left after the work week was through. Sigh...one of these years maybe I'll get to play all four quarters instead of getting benched after halftime every season.

But enough of my wallowing in self-pity, I digress....

Today's pot of gold (or tin/zinc as it may be) seems to hinge on the boundary in the TX pan. Any thoughts welcomed.
 
sittin up here in Hays on vacation still - checking radar - looks like the KS OKL border may fire up again - and the heavy moisture seems to have left....for now hoping for a target - if any today
 
Sitting in Pampa right now. Just took a look at the 21Z and 00Z RUC CAPE and helicity output and noticed a bullseye of 300-400 helicity over the SE TX panhandle by 00Z, under CAPE approaching 3500 J/kg. Dunno how much to trust that but those numbers look good to me. Bad thing is almost all of the panhandle is still socked in clouds, along with a surface cold pool of low 60s air, and looking at the visible satellite loop it appears an outflow boundary has been racing SSE all morning and is now in a line from Quanah to Lubbock to Tatum, NM. There also seems to be another boundary oriented NNE to SSW over the Amarillo area that has kinda woggled east maybe 20 miles or so in the last four hours. Cloud cover looks like it could be slowly eroding from south and SW of AMA. I'm thinking now if I need to shoot southwest more and get out of the cool air.
Maybe I'll wait another hour or so and decide on where to go, right now that sunlit pocket SW of AMA is looking good.
 
Today's pot of gold (or tin/zinc as it may be) seems to hinge on the boundary in the TX pan. Any thoughts welcomed.

Table scraps indeed. Well - I don't have much to offer you at this time I'm afraid - though admittedly my look was hasty. Dynamically there is little going on upstairs that is going to help out much today. If anything, upper level flow is expected to weaken with time based on current model guidance, aside for perhaps some weak upper jet dynamics that might be a bit too far removed. That said - there is probably adequate shear to support supercells in the TX panhandle this afternoon, better the further north. Problem then becomes whether you can sneak some decent instability in under it. Lots of clouds this morning in the area - but not complete overcast - and there are several boundaries around - and moist advection is agressively underway across the southern panhandle per mesoanalyses of moisture convergence, and a secondary mass convergence west of AMA - but the latter has markedly drier and cooler air. RUC guidance develops a weak surface low in sw TX, with trough extending toward Wichita Falls. This preserves backed surface flow north of the trough - with concentrated moisture convergence in the se panhandle region. Modest LLJ develops by evening across west TX - with the nose near CDS - but also precip there in the model forecast so actual termination could be further north if a boundary doesn't actually hold up there. Soundings this morning looked horrible most everywhere but MAF - which is a bit removed from the area of interest - but at least offers some hope of good mid-level lapse rates in the neighborhood. Reluctant to try and pick a target without further review - but CDS could be within 90 miles of a potential target storm. So, I'd be banking on the southern boundary, as opposed to the front to the northwest - which certainly should support a few storms - but questionable in terms of afternoon instability and distance from the LLJ axis.

Good luck,
Glen
 
I think south is the only play around here today. There is a boundary south and the skies are clearing so my target will be on I-27 around Plainview as a start.
 
Residual outflow boundaries are keeping me looking at SW Oklahoma... Elk city to Hollis/Altus.

Still think today will quickly go MCS/linear, but it's at least worth a thought (IMO).

Actually, to be honest, I'm hoping today is rather quiet and the main show is tomorrow !!! :wink:
 
I feel the same as Billy. I'm hoping that today takes a break and allows the atmosphere to build up a bit for tom. when the upper dynamics are much better.

I have to say this is the first time I recall seeing four different hatched areas on an outllook. Other than that I'm not too impressed with today.. Good luck!
 
Billy is thinking the same as we are. But if that TS messes up tomorrow I'm gonna be p*ssed. Only thing worse than having a potentially active day ruined is having it ruined by a miserable tropical system. That's what Summer is for, leave Spring alone.
 
Just took a look at the 1630 day1, seems the risk has been moved a bit more towards the west around the TX/NM border, with the dryline now progged to stay in NM or barely reach the border. Gonna head back to AMA and then down 27 and wait for initiation to my west. Getting on em early will be the key today, if there is any storm worth getting on when it is all over. Will probably be one or two.
 
Gees! That's one WHALE of a storm just waiting to come in and slam the plains tomorrow. Forget the models, they have been off all year. Time to go old school and in reading just the WV imagery tells me that if (IF) we can avoid stuff today from screwing up the dynamics and no mesoscale stuff ruins it, tomorrow WILL be the day of 2005. No doubt in my mind.

Only caviat I'll add here is the concern we all share for convection today and especially tonight on how it will effect us. It's too early to call for the Red Cross just yet. :wink:

Sorry, I'm getting one day ahead and off the topic thread of TODAY.

Keep it out west, let us recover here and cross our fingers. :wink[/i]
 
Only problem there Billy is anything that forms out west will turn into a big mess and move east right into tomorrows outlook area and cold pool the hell out of it.

I am also hoping for nothing today since I have AES duty tonight and cant chase but would be on spotter duty for amarillo (read boring). if the atmosphere has a day to clear out and recover then tomorrow looks to be a fun day.

I still like the Plainview area and west. Tulia and Plainview both have wifi available. Tulia at the truckstop and Plainview at one of the hotels.
 
I agree with Jay... I'd rather see a relatively uneventful day today if it means keeping the air clear for tomorrow... but I'm not going to downwish upon those out today for them to bust on the account of saving tomorrow..
 
Sitting in Altus watching the SW OK boundary floating around. Looks tempting out west, but we did that song and dance yesterday. No one thought there would be a cyclic tornadic sup in SW OK last Sunday either, so we're opting to play the long shot on this boundary with some magical convergence later today.

I'm not so worried about tomorrow because every night we've had convection move through the Day 2 area and each day it's recovered just fine. I was up very late watching storms all over SW OK and right now we're sitting in 85/70 with SE winds, so recovery isn't such a tall order. I'm not overly-optimistic about tomorrow as far as magnitiude, but I have hopes of a few concentrated, chaseable sups. Been a few days since we had an obvious target, maybe tomorrow will provide.

In the meantime, I need an energy drink. If anything, 2005 has gotten me into the habit of being lulled to sleep once we hit the road, unlike any other year. I think it's the repeat 500+ mile treks away from home on the same three routes every other day all season, with few results.
 
The seemingly daily WI TOR report is in:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 231 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BARRON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT
* AT 225 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 1 MILE NORTH OF EMERALD WISCONSIN.
 
I'm near the boundary intersection near AMA, and agree the setup continues to progress as midlevel flow has beaten the morning progs and our instability is coming around too. Saw some towers develop at the intersection about 40 minutes ago. They quickly died but the boundary remains in place. I'm guessing we need another hour of moisture return and CIN erosion before the first storm fires around here.
 
Tornado watch issued for western half of OK/TX panhadles and eastern NM down to Lubbock

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2005

TORNADO WATCH 460 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC017-069-079-111-115-117-165-189-205-219-279-303-305-341-359-
369-375-381-421-437-445-501-120200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0460.050611T2000Z-050612T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAILEY CASTRO COCHRAN
DALLAM DAWSON DEAF SMITH
GAINES HALE HARTLEY
HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOORE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
SHERMAN SWISHER
 
Looks like the panhandle is finally starting to light up. I guess my preference would be for the cells in southern Randall county - assuning one eventually dominates - as the cell in Potter county might struggle too much despite the better low-level shear. Noting a series of cells have tried to establish themeselves northwest of this boundary - and all have died rather quickly. Higher elvation scans shows the Potter cell is rather shallow. Could perhaps see one of the cells further south latching on to the boundary evident in the base scan reflectivity southeast of AMA and ride out further east where the low-level wind field is a bit stronger and could improve chances for a tornado in northern Briscoe to Hall county. Of course - I'm probably completely wrong, lol.

Glen
 
That storm just to the west of Amarillo is showing a TVS and Meso as of the 6:04 EDT radar. Visually, there is a nice couplet. (WeatherTap.) Dave Lewison and Scott McPartland are heading toward it along with Charles Edwards. And a tornado warning just came out!

Bill Hark
 
Ok - the cell I liked in Randall county I'd note has a reported tornado near Happy :) j/k, yeah - it will be interesting to see if a report can come out of the AMA cell. It is looking better than before - but I'm still preferring the cell to the southeast in the long-run.

Glen
 
Several tornadoes reported west of AMA and south of AMA with a few different supercells in the panhandle. There was a tornado-warned storm immediately west/northwest of AMA, but rotation appears to have weakened at this time. Supercell in northern Deaf Smith county appears to have merger with some weaker convection to it's east, and we'll see how that supercell recovers. Otherwise, nice supercell with strong rotation in southwestern Armstrong, extreme northeastern Swisher counties northeast of Tulia. Rotation is evident on radar with this supercell, but not overly impressive attm. It seems that the supercells haven't been able to maintain low-level rotation for very long.

Overall flow in the area is pretty weak at all levels, with 15kts at 850mb, 10-20 kts at 700mb, 25-35kts at 500mb... The directional shear is very nice, however, so I'm not surprised to see decent low-level rotation and tornadoes from time-to-time. With 30-45kts deep-layer shear and 2500-3000 CAPE, I'd expect the supercells threat to remain for a while. Mesoanalysis showing SRH near the supercell south/southeast of AMA isn't as great as the cells to the west of AMA, but it's isolated and already established.
 
I would expert reports to be coming in as these 2 cells look impressive on radar - right through AMA
and to think 6 hours ago there wasnt a thread, wow
 
Looks like we are seeing our MCS starting to take shape. Now to see how far north it goes before making the turn out of the panhandle. Convection in Oklahoma has been having issues getting going. Two decent cells right now in Dewey Co near Taloga/Seiling...the other moving along the OK/TX border in Roger Mills Co.
 
Those two cells are a thing of beauty (on radar). Two flying eagles chasing each other in west Tx I really wish I was there. The dryline has started back west and the cluster of convection should start to push out the area and hopefully leave Ok alone until tom. Can't wait to see the reports from those two cells.
 
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