6/10/07 FCST: IA/NE/SD/MN/KS/MO

[Fabian Guerra]

It looks like there is a slight chance of supercells popping up in western Iowa this Sunday. 4000-5000+ CAPE, 65-70 dp's, possible s/se surface winds and a breakable cap by late afternoon or early eve. There may a shortwave or two as well although the strength of the mid-level winds aren't that impressive (aoa 30 knots). Overall its not a slam dunk by any stretch but I figure it deserved a forecast thread.

 

[Josh Richardson]

It looks like there is a slight chance of supercells popping up in western Iowa this Sunday. 4000-5000+ CAPE, 65-70 dp's, possible s/se surface winds and a breakable cap by late afternoon or early eve. There may a shortwave or two as well although the strength of the mid-level winds aren't that impressive (aoa 30 knots). Overall its not a slam dunk by any stretch but I figure it deserved a forecast thread.

As you stated possible S/SE surface winds will be the key and I will monitoring this one closely. Im just excited to see a breakable cap in June after last year in this area. I will be almost certainly out this day as its a backyard chase for me and I will try to give more of an update tomorrow when time permits.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

North Dakota

Some ridge riding/warm front super cells are possible in ND if enough moisture can advect/evaporate. There is plenty of water on the ground in NoDak in addition to what gets transported. Shear looks most favorable near the Canuck border. NAM solution would offer best hope placing sharp warm front in northern ND.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for Sunday, June 10

Chase target:
Bowdle, SD (45 miles west of Aberdeen).

Timing:
Storm initiation 6 PM CDT. A few supercell storms will be likely while a tornado or two will be possible.

Synopsis:
Evening analysis indicated zonal UA pattern over the Upper-Midwest while SWRLY flow was over the Four Corners area E of a developing Baja ULVL low. Several areas of convection are ongoing in the CNTRL CONUS ATTM which fired in an area of large-scale assent. Most notably is an MCS in SWRN KS which appears to be maintained by a 30kt LLJ which is transporting 12C H85 dewpoints into that area. Further E, a developing cluster of storms appears to be linked to a couple of subtle S/WVs and associated UVM along with cooling mid-level temperatures. Further north in NEB, BL moisture is on the increase, as evidenced by SFC dewpoints in the low-60s in SCNTRL NEB while a developing LLJ is resulting in moisture transport. RIW, GJT, and DNR upwind soundings all indicated steep lapse rates in the SFC-500mb layer, while LBF and DDC soundings indicate increasing moisture.

Discussion:
Difficult forecast as timing and placement of SFC and ULVL features is not obvious and convection will depend on forcing from one or more S/WVs translating the ULVL ridge and region of large-scale downward motion. Add to this the effects of ongoing MCSs on the NWRD transport of moisture. A DL extending from near LBF NWRD to the Mobridge area in SD should provide the primary focus for convection tomorrow. Models continue to hint at a few compact waves translating though NEB during the afternoon hours, however convection should remain capped there with warmer mid-level temperatures. Furthermore, an extensive canopy of CI will inhibit insolation in most of SRN and ERN NEB for much of the peak heating hours however convection will initiate near LBF by mid-afternoon and develop and spread EWRD towards OAX by early evening. Limited instability and shear in NEB should keep this convection below severe limits and support a multicell storm mode. Further N, convection should initiate W of Aberdeen around 00Z near the WRN edge of a CU field over ERN SD. Deep-layer shear AOB 40 kts and modest LLVL hodograph curvature will be juxtaposed with MLCAPEs to 4000J/kg as steep lapse rates now in CO, WY, and UT spreads over a developing moist layer.

[FONT=&quot]- bill[/FONT]

 

[Jeff Miller]

SPC has outlined a 30% hatched area for large hail in Eastern Nebraska this afternoon as the potential for vigorous updrafts certainly exists. Storm mode will likely be isolated strong supercells. This may be a great chase day for structure freaks for sure - might get some spectacular storm footage. Not the day to count on a tornado - but wouldn't rule out a weak funnel or two. Expecting initiation around Columbus, Nebraska as a final guess.

Sometimes some spectacularly photogenic storms can be caught on days like this. Good luck to anyone out in the field today.

___________________________

TARGET: COLUMBUS, NE

 

[Josh Murfield]

Looks like the 30% hatched area is gone now in the latest day 1 update, the entire area is only under a 15% risk for hail. However local forecast here in the Omaha-Lincoln area is still mentioning supercells, so considering it's a weekend it will still be worth heading out for some structure shots. I think I'll be watcing an area anywhere from Lincoln-Omaha-Columbus.

 

[Jeff Miller]

The 30% hatched may be gone but SPC per latest update has now added in a 2% Tornado threat. So they went from "no, no tornadoes today" to "we can't rule it out."

A persistant severe storm has been ongoing west of Sioux Falls practically all morning dropping hail to nickel size - and Satellite indicates other isolated Cb's are beginning to develop. Could actually get interesting this afternoon - though the primary mode will be large hail and microburst activity, June could give some chasers a nice present in the form of rotation columns of water vapor and air. It may be a needle in a haystack, but hope some will have success! Stay safe!

 

[Edward Ballou]

All I can say is that it is HOT out...wowzers - hot and muggy. Cumulus field developing is more than what satellite is leading to believe. Tower-like structures seen around KBKX but nothing of great consequence. I agree with Bill's forecast - seems like Aberdeen area looks good. Seems like low-level shear is lacking at this point. Td's are around low 70s around there as well so that's exciting. The only other thing is that all the precip models aren't forecasting anything to break out. NWS favors area south of I-90 so this whole thing seems like it's up in the air (no pun intended).

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Idk? i think some still has a shot, i had one cell develop near Omaha it was getting good for a bit then it crapped out, if anything good is to develop it will prb be up north of Omaha. I agree though HOT! lets just hope Marginal can give us something.