6/1/05 FCST: N. Plains

SWODY2 Slight Risk area over the Dakotas seems reasonable...
GFS and NAM differ on position of surface low with GFS further north. Theta-e boundary/warm
front progged at 00z to hang from central Dakotas into northwest MN. Speed and directional shear look good: surface flow from the southeast, 35kt LLJ from the south, 40kt H70 flow from the southwest, 50kt H50 flow from the west/southwest. Thow in around 1500 J/kg of CAPE and an H70 shortwave and things should go bang. NAM fires off conevection west of Jamestown, ND during the evening ahead of the H70 wave. The caviat with this set-up (as with most this spring) is the degree of moisture. Also of concern is amount of solar in wake of RA/TSRA overnight. Doesn't look like a stellar set-up but this year you take what you get.
 
Here in Canada, we have a slight risk over SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba today. North Dakota looks like it is clearing out and will be the place to watch as storms will be moving northwards from there into Canada this afternoon. Incredible heat way up north with Stony Rapids, SK reaching 30C yesterday and many places in northern Manitoba already at 25C. Dewpoints are highest in the slight risk area but temps are too low for anything major so far. It should be a good day to watch what happens though...

Jared
 
Now we have had a report of a funnel cloud near Moose Jaw and a tornado watch has been issued for much of southern Saskatchewan.

These storms will be pretty small but the possibility does exist for weak tornadoes today.

I will be staying put until things develop further as these systems are heading in my direction. Hopefully someone with more advanced knowledge can lend some forecasting experitice on this system. Too bad no supercells have formed yet so it looks like a huge area of unknown factors.

Jared
 
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