Justin Turcotte
EF5
SWODY2 Slight Risk area over the Dakotas seems reasonable...
GFS and NAM differ on position of surface low with GFS further north. Theta-e boundary/warm
front progged at 00z to hang from central Dakotas into northwest MN. Speed and directional shear look good: surface flow from the southeast, 35kt LLJ from the south, 40kt H70 flow from the southwest, 50kt H50 flow from the west/southwest. Thow in around 1500 J/kg of CAPE and an H70 shortwave and things should go bang. NAM fires off conevection west of Jamestown, ND during the evening ahead of the H70 wave. The caviat with this set-up (as with most this spring) is the degree of moisture. Also of concern is amount of solar in wake of RA/TSRA overnight. Doesn't look like a stellar set-up but this year you take what you get.
GFS and NAM differ on position of surface low with GFS further north. Theta-e boundary/warm
front progged at 00z to hang from central Dakotas into northwest MN. Speed and directional shear look good: surface flow from the southeast, 35kt LLJ from the south, 40kt H70 flow from the southwest, 50kt H50 flow from the west/southwest. Thow in around 1500 J/kg of CAPE and an H70 shortwave and things should go bang. NAM fires off conevection west of Jamestown, ND during the evening ahead of the H70 wave. The caviat with this set-up (as with most this spring) is the degree of moisture. Also of concern is amount of solar in wake of RA/TSRA overnight. Doesn't look like a stellar set-up but this year you take what you get.