6/01/07 FCST: IA,MO,KS,OK,TX

[Michael O'Keeffe]

There is great clearing here in KC. I'm not sure how that's going to help down in my neck of the woods, but it would make sense this will happen in Iowa as well. Very soupy out here and there are a few very low clouds. Unfortunetly we have WSW winds here right now. May head up to MO/IA border if it looks good, but as of right now I'm just going to prepare for the crazy week ahead.

On the IA/MO border surface obs showed SE winds and tds in the low 60s.

 

[Brent A. Clair]

Here southeast of the triple of IA/MO/IL, storms are dying out fast. One group still moving northeast, but southern tip is drying up. Cloud cover is marginal and I would suspect that afternoon heating will not be inhibited too much. Plus, the existing boundary makes things quite interesting. Latest RUC shows a nice mix of factors in NE MO.
I'm just getting too optimistic. Hope things continue. Regardless, I'm not moving an inch; either it will bust or blow up right overhead.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

For whatever reason, I still think Iowa and Missouri are going to be real bummers this evening. I'm still deciding if I even want to chase today, but I'm liking NW and north central Illinois more and more as I sit here and look. Shear is much stronger than the models were progging days before this ahead of the ofb from the overnight convection. A strong LLJ kicks in below a 45 kt streak at 500mb. Instability is not an issue as surface heating will go unhindered and surface cape values reach near 3000 j/kg. Dew points are already near 70 across most of the state.

I do think whatever occurs in Illinois could be an early show, and that we may see severe storms go back up early in the afternoon, and the event may quiet down right around sunset across the northern half of Illinois and maybe even southern Wisconsin. We may end up with a more linear mode, but I think with the directional shear progged as it is and shows up on current obs. that a couple supercells are not out of the question. Based on low level hodos on the area, isolated tornadoes are possible with any rotating storm. If I head out, it will be somewhat soon, and towards western Illinois. Maybe Peoria-Galesburg area.

Kinda surprised to see this area not even in a slight risk today.

I do think you have a shot at an isolated low topped supercell or two in NW Iowa, but I don't have a great feeling about the Iowa and Missouri border.

 

[Shane Adams]

Current target as of now is the US380 corridor, between Aspermont and Throckmorton. RUC has a h85 jet coming into this region by 0Z, as well as a more subtle h7 jet riding overtop of that. Mid-level winds are relatively weak, but the h5 jet streak coming in just south of that area should be enough to influence at least 25-30kts at h5. Anvil level winds look good enough to avoid a serious seeding problem, and if the instability can happen as advertised, isolated development shouldn't be a problem. The h85 and h7 jet streaks really max out the forecast helicity in this spot, which is why I'm focusing on it. RUC breaks out precip in this area by 0Z as well, though I'm going off the 12-hr run. Will wait and see if the more-reliable 15-hr run continues this basic trend or not....if it does, I'm out the door. If things change, I'll continue to look for an area of enhanced helicity within the overall target area where LLJ looks to be strongest.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I'll be targeting an area between Peoria and Princeton, IL..mainly since I will be in that area from this afternoon until Sunday. I think ideal dynamics are in place, but it could be a bust..let's hope this morning convective blowoff dissipates quickly.

 

[John Farley]

I think Iowa and western MO may be too worked over from the morning convection, and as mentioned by someone else, the surface winds in much of this area are SW and progged to stay that way. However, I am liking what the RUC is showing for parts of east-central MO and west-central IL late this afternoon - CAPE over 3000, maybe 4000 in some spots, and good directional shear. Plus, a clear boundary left over from the morning convection to serve as a focus. Also, I think this area should get quite a bit of sunshine, as the debris from morning convection dissipates (and to some degree has missed this area anyway). I will hazard a guess that SPC will shift the slight risk into this area in the 1630Z outlook. Maybe finally a decent chase close to home?

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for Friday, June 1

Chase target:
Wichita Falls, TX

Timing:
Storms will move into the area after 3 PM.

Storm mode:
Multicell clusters with embedded supercells.

Synopsis:
H5 chart shows stacked low spinning away over SD while the left-exit region of the 40kt SRN branch jet max is spreading over WRN TX. A 40kt LLJ is spreading large amounts of moisture towards the TX panhandle as evidenced with H85 dewpoints of 18C. At the SFC, convection is ongoing near AMA along a weakening synoptic CF which extends from low-pressure centered over ELP NWRD to NWRN TX into GRI in NEB. In TX and OK, an OFB is located parallel to and 20 mile N of the Red river, while a second boundary extends from AMA to SWW and an E/W oriented boundary was 50 miles S of CDS. Steep lapse-rates are in place above the abundant moist layer over WRN TX into NM.

Discussion:
Elevated convection ongoing in the TX panhandle will expand in coverage while becoming SFC-based as it moves to the SE along the Red River. Strong instability and shear parameters should support strong and organized storms. LLVL dewpoints AOA 65F along with mid-level lapse rates of 9C/km will result in MLCAPEs to 3000J/kg, which should become uncapped by mid-afternoon. Deep-layer shear (SFC-6km) will increase to AOA 40 kts as exit region of aforementioned SRN jet branch overspreads the area, while strong hodograph curvatures will exist along the Red River over backing SFC flow N of OFB.

[FONT=&quot]- bill[/FONT]

 

[Mark Blue]

We chased the panhandle of OK yesterday and were rewarded handsomely around Elkhart KS and Guymon OK. Not to change the subject of everyone who is on the IL bandwagon, but we are just too far away to make it to that neck of the woods, so we're targeting Plainview TX as our launching point today. I'm a little worried about the atmosphere being trashed from all of the morning convection that is in progress, so hopefully points south of the current storms will have a chance later today with the 65 dewpoints, generally sufficient SBCAPE, and the SE LLJ that is advecting moisture into the region. The surface low is currently setting up in NE NM, whereas it was in SE CO yesterday, so I figure we can just move south 200 miles and wait for the convection that develops on the higher terrain of eastern NM and moves into the caprocks canyon area of The TX panhandle later this afternoon.

Mark & Jane

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Ill be staying around here.. I am about 50 miles east of the IA/MO/IL border. Latest SPC MSAS shows nice area of 2000+ CAPE advecting into my area.. I also see the new MD out.. I will stay local, maybe head west a bit and try out the new laptop

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Also staying in the RFD area although I may have to chase west and SW if needed .. Looks like the SPC shifted the risk area to the east so potential looking better in NW IL.. at least we have a decent shot a something it seems as we finally have some decent dewpoints around here and the sun is peeking out..

 

[Brent A. Clair]

The way it reads, SPC is dismissing any afternoon convection after this round of storms in IA/IL. Makes it sound like only focus is N IL and S WI. Am I missing something?

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Hmmm perhaps ther current convection IS the area they are watching. DVN just issues a STW for a cell just west of them. However to get the risk area into IL another line is going to have to form south and west of the first or an extension which may be happening now..

edited: Tornado Warning now

 

[John Farley]

The forecast instability and precipitation output from both the RUC and NAM suggest that the line will build to the south, or that new convection will occur to the south of the current storms. I am thinking the place to be is west-central IL, maybe around Pittsfield and on north from there, and will likely be heading out for that general area shortly. Models are still showing a decent combination of instability and shear in that area, though not as extreme instability as earlier RUC runs suggested.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Still hope in WC IL. Winds out of the SE in Pittsfield with a td of 70F and surronding areas such as Jacksonville. If we can get a discrete cell to fire down there then we maybe able to get a nice tornado. Now I just need to get past this damn traffic holding us up. JEEZ!!!!