I'm slightly baffled by the way storms unfolded today... The cap on the 12z soundings was removed by mid afternoon, and the 0z soundings from OUN and DFW/FWD indicate an essentially uncapped enviroment east of the 'dryline' / confluence line that ran near I35. With CAPE being as high as it ever gets in this area (5000-6000 sbCAPE) and essentially dry-adiabatic lapse rates, I was expecting to see at least some very large hail reports. Looking through storm reports, there was one or two 2" hail reports, with the remainder >1.5"... In addition, I was not impressive at all by the reflectivity structure. Again, gargantuan CAPE , tons of it above the freezing level, and not much in the way of hail. We punched through the Coal co. storm about 20-30 before sunset en route to Atoka, and we didn't get any hail larger than pea size. There were several mesos on many of the storms in se OK, so that was okay. I know 500mb flow and deeplayer shear dropped quite a bit south of I40, but 1z RUC mesoanalysis indicated ~35kts 0-6km shear north of the Red River (near the Atoka/Coal co. storm), which was sufficient last week in western TX for some nice supercells. The conundrum we faced was this -- the better low-level flow was south (along Red River and into northern TX), while better flow aloft was nearer I40. The first few storms that developed in Hughes county looked like they'd move right along the OFB that was near and just south of I40. However, those storms moved a tad south of that OFB I think. I wasn't surprised to see the cell from Muskogee to the AR border look like it did, since the Fort Smith 88D VWP showed very nice low-level veering profile. Note also the very strong low-level shear and awesome hodograph curvature on the 0z OUN sounding (can't help but notice that the FWD sounding is completely uncapped too... amazing).
My thoughts? I guess parcel theory had a tough time in this environment. With such high dewpoints (and deep!), there was massive amounts of water in the updraft. With the extreme CAPE, there was likely huge amounts of water mass flux through the updraft (high water content + extraordinary updraft velocities per massive CAPE). Without stronger midlevel flow to help advect this moisture downstream / downshear (the FWD and OUN soudings look just fine, but I see that the 0z NAM initialized a local min in midlevel flow over se OK), water loading effects may have played a significant role in updraft intensity. I didn't have radar the whole time in the field, but my intermittent radar images from 5pm - 8pm indicated that the max reflectivities on most of the storms were <65 dBz, though the storm near Stuart did jump into the upper-60s for a brief time (this is on tilts 2-3 from KTLX, so it's above the ambient freezing level). VILs were high as one would expect, with rather vertical / erect updrafts and massive amounts of moisture available (remember, the Level III data REMOVES >55dbz echoes in the VIL calculation, in an attempt to remove hail contamination, thus the reason why VIL is NOT a good hail indicator!). Given the lapse rates and instability available, I was expecting some very high reflectivity cores owing to the presence of hail the size of Geo metros. I guess this was far from the case...
It was interesting to see how quickly rotation developed in many of the storms, likely a product of the incredible vertical acceleration (courtesy of the insane CAPE) and associated stretching of vertical vorticity (that had been tilted by significant gradients in vertical velocity, as we expect and assume near strong updrafts). RUC mesoanalysis indicated that the low-level shear was just fine (200 0-1km SRH ahead of the Atoka/Coal co. storm), so I was surprised to see that it appeared rather outflowish by the time we got to it after 8pm. High boundary layer mean RH and 15-20kts 0-3km shear should have helped keep cold pools in check today as well. I suppose the shear may not have picked up enough until after we had numerous updrafts nw of McAlester, by which time we already had begun the congealing process. Once cold pools from different storms consolidate, it's difficult to reverse the trend (in other words, difficult to go from MCS / quasi-linear structure back to discrete activity).
I'm just kind of writing all my random thoughts about today... I guess it ultimately came down to numerous cell mergers and many cell interactions... The cell in Coal co. remained nearly stationary for a while, and the very high rainfall efficiencies were evident as we drove around that area (lots of flooded yards and ditches, some significant ponding on the road, etc).
Oddly enough, there were many questions about initiation in the se OK target, but many assumed supercells were a guarantee given sufficient deeplayer shear and extraordinary CAPE. Meanwhile, many (myself included) blew off the panhandle play, thinking that would be a sure bet for convection, but likely MCS in mode. As it turns out, the se OK activity had occassional supercell structure, but was largely MCS in nature (esp by 7:30-8). Meanwhile, convection remained discrete in the panhandles, allowing for several nice supercells. Ugh.