5/25/08 DISC: TX/OK/KS/NE/AR/MO/IL/IA/MN/WI/CA

[Jonathan Whitehead]

MODS: Please edit date for typo-5/25

Just thought Id start a discussion thread on todays outbreak, more in terms of geographic scale than numbers, but numbers are catching up.
I specifically am interested in everyones opinion about how models and outlets forecasted todays severe weather. I mean everything is tornadoing just about. We got reports from Canada to Midland. And its not just the Plains, its extending into the Upper Midwest. Its really cool to look at CONUS vis loop at the explosion of white. Anyway, I think models really underforecasted the amount of intensity and scale.
The central KS and NW AR activity was nailed, from the cold pool/cold front to the MCV, respectively. Will also give models and SPC credit for the Upper Midwest as that has played out as forecasted.

Would also like to extend this discussion (if possible wrt to rules) to mention a little bit of the entire storm system from Thursday thru tomorrow with limited forecasting details on tomorrow due to ST rules for this read. This is day #4 with really Saturday being the only "quiet" day in terms of overall coverage. KS was only region that didnt light up, mainly due to scattered morning convection/cloud cover stabilizing the boundary layer.
Anyways just would like everyones two cents

EDIT: 9 WWs, WOW

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Looking at some video of the tornado damage in Parkersburg, IA it looks VERY VERY bad. An entire street is GONE nothing but flat slabs with heaps of rubble on top. Not one wall is left standing on a few of the homes and from what the anchors were saying the homes their were fairly new and pretty large and expensive homes which makes me wonder about the way homes are built these days. But very saddening to see, if I had to say not knowing how well built the homes were i'd say EF5 easy.

 

[rdale]

Houses can't be EF5 damage, you need something more study.

 

[Heidi Farrar]

Here is a link to damage photos of the tornado that tore across central MN (north of the Twin Cities) this evening.

http://wcco.com/slideshows/hugo.tornado.damage.20.732675.html?rid=7

Looks really bad there, too. A friend got a photo of this one just after it went over-top of his house. It was cycling at that time, but shortly after that it had a 146 knt TVS and was doing the damage in the photos. He got the photo when it was a few miles east of his place.

 

[Benjamin Smith]

CNN is reporting that a 2 year old child was killed in the storm north of Minneapolis. Very sad story indeed. My heart and condolences go out to the families involved.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/05/25/severe.weather/index.html

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Houses can't be EF5 damage, you need something more study.

FYI: Houses can be EF5...can go to 220 MPH (max) with a cleaned slab (DOD FR12, DI 10).

 

[Jeff Miller]

The damage from the long track Iowa tornado was immense and devestating, but the slabs were not clean slates. There were no walls standing whatosever, yet great piles of pulverized debris were everywhere. This will likely be an EF-4 rated tornado at its strongest.

 

[Kevin Statler2]

Sounds really bad in IA. 7 dead so far per AP from state official and rising..

 

[jladue]

It's tough to get an EF5 or F5 post 2002 because surveyors have become so critical of building integrity. Nevertheless, some of the debris on some slabs may be neighbor's debris. Will wait for a ground survey and hopefully better pics.

 

[Derek Weston]

Damage being shown on local news in NE Iowa is rather terrible.

Not sure it's an EF5 -- but wouldn't be at all surprised to see an EF4 rating.

Streaming coverage here:

http://www.kcrg.com/

 

[Robert Balogh]

Wouldnt say everything is tornadoing. We were in SW Ks, saw several storms in succesion give it a good go and then become outflow dominant crap. Thought we saw a brief rope looking NE from just east of Bison but was too far away to be able to confirm

Highlight of the day for us in SW Ks was some big hail - the photo below was taken north of Burdett

 

[Heidi Farrar]

Here's some helicopter video over Parkersburg, IA from earlier. This was really a big one:

http://www.whotv.com/Global/category.asp?C=5533&nav=menu100_1

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Here's some helicopter video over Parkersburg, IA from earlier. This was really a big one:

http://www.whotv.com/Global/category.asp?C=5533&nav=menu100_1

Looks to be an EF-4 as I still see some structures standing in the middle of the path, but by "still standing" I mean im seeing some walls still up amidst large devestation.

Also in reply to the first post on Hugo with link to photos..that one appears to be EF-5 as there IS NOTHING standing..utter devastation.

 

[Kenny Drake]

From what I can see here in Hugo the damage to the neighborhood just to my north is probably a good EF-3. I saw 1 house that sustained what looks like EF-4 damage but I'd give it a strong EF-3. The tornado itself wasn't too wide (~1/4 mi damage path) but at one point the tornado moved right along a street with houses on both sides. Will see what NWS decides...

 

[rdale]

FYI: Houses can be EF5...can go to 220 MPH (max) with a cleaned slab (DOD FR12, DI 10).

DOD FR12 - DI 10 = a max of 198mph, not 220mph. That's EF4 range.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/2.html