I still think the warning was a bit preemptive. Nonetheless the storm has indeed pulled a nice right turn and is heading probably at about 290. The storm looks to core its brains out over Council Grove.
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Tim Supinie
EF2
Unless I'm mistaken, the storm is elevated, so I'm not sure about the tornado threat on that storm for that reason. SPC mesoanalysis is showing inflow bases between 250 m and 1000 m AGL. I realize it's based off the RUC, which can be wrong, but I'm going to trust it in this case. So could someone enlighten me on this?
Mike Smith
TOP did absolutely the right thing by warning. The hook is classic and there have been nice couplets at times. The storm has taken a strong right turn.
Would you want to bet your family's safety on the RUC?
Perhaps this will ultimately be a false alarm, but I do not believe we have the reliable tools needed to say that we can ignore a hook, strong rotation, and a right turn.
Would you want to bet your family's safety on the RUC?
Perhaps this will ultimately be a false alarm, but I do not believe we have the reliable tools needed to say that we can ignore a hook, strong rotation, and a right turn.
Zack Hargrove
EF2
It may have been a bit of a reach warning wise... but there has been at least some rotation present consistently and that hook has been pretty well defined... I guess they didn't want to take any chances as it approaches the big instability... storm south of Junction city looks to be wrapping around a bit too although it is still relatively weak... if it strengthens it could be interesting...
Zack Hargrove
EF2
I strongly agree... especially after dark
Mikey Gribble
EF5
The only thing I have looked at was the NWS radar, but I would be really surpised if that storm produces a tornado. Like you mentioned, LCL heights are really high. Also the Topeka sounding showed there is basically a baby inversion layer in the 1-3km area. The CAPE profile is skinny above that. Model forecast soundings leading up to today showed the boundary layer decoupling pretty quickly after dark. When you consider all those things I would be really surprised if they pulled off a tornado.
On the other hand it is May and whenever a surface based storm interacts with a boundary it is usually going to have some degree of tornado potential. I think it's minimal in this case, but there is still a nonzero chance that it could produce a tornado. Anything can happen in May.
On the other hand it is May and whenever a surface based storm interacts with a boundary it is usually going to have some degree of tornado potential. I think it's minimal in this case, but there is still a nonzero chance that it could produce a tornado. Anything can happen in May.
I never saw a sustained couplet. I only saw marginal azimuthal shear on one or two scans. I suppose that could warrant a warning, but I would've been surprised, especially given the elevated nature of the storm, if it had produced.
Hook echoes aren't the best indicator of tornadic potential in a storm given today's technology, and I'm not sure I would even classify that echo as a hook for the storm. It looked more to me like the flanking line was erupting.
Tim Stoecklein
EF5
Rodney Price
EF0
Also to add to Mike's comments, there's a nice split taking place with the storm as the right mover travels across northern Lyon County and the left split into Wabaunsee county.
And there's this report:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1035 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2010
0949 PM TORNADO 1 E HOPE 38.69N 97.06W
05/06/2010 DICKINSON KS PUBLIC
BRIEF TORNADO 1 MILE EAST OF HOPE DAMAGED HOUSE. TIME
ESTIMATED.
And there's this report:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1035 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2010
0949 PM TORNADO 1 E HOPE 38.69N 97.06W
05/06/2010 DICKINSON KS PUBLIC
BRIEF TORNADO 1 MILE EAST OF HOPE DAMAGED HOUSE. TIME
ESTIMATED.
Ryan Wichman
EF3
Apologies to the TOP NWS can be sent to:
National Weather Service
Topeka, KS Weather Forecast Office
1116 NE Strait Avenue
Topeka, KS 66616-1667
...That is all
Oh and I think these storms are really going to turn into a nice MCS as the night rolls on. That LLJ is cranking right now with on-going storms in Missouri along the 850mb WF congealing. (Just to keep the post legal
National Weather Service
Topeka, KS Weather Forecast Office
1116 NE Strait Avenue
Topeka, KS 66616-1667
...That is all
Oh and I think these storms are really going to turn into a nice MCS as the night rolls on. That LLJ is cranking right now with on-going storms in Missouri along the 850mb WF congealing. (Just to keep the post legal
I must just like being wrong, but I'm certainly not apologetic, and I'm still surprised.
Mike Smith
There is a thread here: http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=23727&page=2 on the topic of hook echoes. Based on decades of experience, it is mistake to ignore strong hooks -- which the storm in question had.
