5/6/07 FCST: OK/TX/KS/MO/NE/IA

[Brian Stertz]

Just looking a bit ahead for a possible Day 3 chase opportunity....the best areas look to be across the E. Texas Panhandle/NW Texas into WC/SW/C Oklahoma...and a more conditional threat across SW/C Kansas Sunday afternoon/evening. The overnight convection and residual outflow boundaries will have a huge role on the focus for Sunday's event. The strongest convergence looks like it will be across the SE/EC Texas Panhandle where it appears a triple point may setup (based off the latest GFS forecast). I am a little leary of the Kansas option because of the proximity of the cold front and likely some rain cooled air issues from the overnight deep convection.

 

[Matt Hines]

This day is a devil to forecast this far out. GFS has a front south of the Panhandle, while ECWMF has the front in southeast CO. ECWMF has been more consistant than each GFS run, so am leaning that way at this time. It may take a good part of the day to destabilize because of Saturday evenings convection. If we can get enough heating in the afternoon, then the potential is there again with a triple point setting up somewhere from the Panhandles to west of LBB. Be interesting to watch how everything unfolds!

 

[Ray Walker]

Given the strength of this system and amount of moisture in place I think sunday will be another significant day.

 

[David Wolfson]

No big crowds here, so I'll throw in my oar before I go to bed. At first glance, it looks like deja vu all over again. But there are some differences. First, the dryline is not a dryline but a full-blown front with AMA at 54/41, PYX 55/48, CDS 74/68, and GAG at 72/68, etc., with almost unbroken convection from LBB up to a surface meso low in north central KS.

Put a semi-stationary front together with the brisk deep-layer parallel flow, ride a disturbance over the top, and you get a wave. This may explain what was a puzzle: why the RUC surges the "dryline" toward CDS in the afternoon. A little wave propagates down by Lubbock up toward the northeast Panhandle where the model loses it in afternoon heating.

I think this precip line will persist well into the morning, trashing the boundary layer in its vicinity. This is good news for the hard-hit counties of the last few days, IMO. I would want to keep road options open however. The net result of all this as of now is: target, Sayre, OK., a managable virtual drive from DDC.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Busy Sunday?

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm starting to get REALLY concerned over tomorrow's potential severe. By no means, not the lack of it, but the intensity!

Looking at water vapor imagery, that's just an amazing trough and maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me, but it almost looks like a developing low pressure in Arizona, with one whale of a dry air intrustion rounding the trough with an additional impulse south of the "boot heel" of New Mexico.

All these parameters continuing to come together, just having this "pit in my stomach" feeling that tomorrow could be the biggest day yet! And perhaps storm motions won't quite be as fast as the past two days.

Again, maybe I'm looking at things all wrong, but at this point, I have a pretty good feeling for some amazing chase ops in SW to Central Oklahoma tomorrow.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Target Today Sunday NE TX PHNDL

The area for late this afternoon is from DDC-AMA- Woodward zone. I like the Perryton- Canadian TX is NNE of the triple point this afternoon. All models have storms around 21-0Z in that area.

SPC outlook looks good i think MDT may back up 50 miles to the west on 13Z or 16:30Z updates.

Kathryn filmed three tornados in Kansas last night.

Good luck to all that chase today.

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: CLINTON, OK TIME OF DEPARTURE FROM WICHITA: 9:30 AM. There are several flies in the oinment today. Morning convection, unidirectional flow aloft, and too much shear. I do not like race chasing. But, I do like the higher CAPE air in SW OK. Hoping the line breaks up later. However, a secondary play would be around Paducah, TX or points south if the line continues to fill in. TM

 

[Billy Griffin]

I still like SW / Central Oklahoma for the best play today. I'm liking this area for better realized CAPE to combat the incredible shear today. It still looks to me that the deepening low pressure near the four corners is not moving, but continued convergence and convection may keep too much in the way of ongoing convection continued in and near the TP, so I think I'll play the DL buldge. Good luck everyone!

 

[Ilya Neyman]

Sitting here with my chase partner Ian Puffenberger in Weatherford and going over latest data, this location may be a good bet for now with juicy CAPEs, cold LIs and nice surface heating developing, along with good ole' wifi internet.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

I'm watching this one too. There is an over-abundance of cape today. I'm noticing some sort of surface low feature in northwest Texas that could help the 850 flow back a little more this afternoon, with the RUC showing this. If storms can remain discrete, there is definitely a nice area of instability for them to travel through, into central oklahoma. More than likely I'll be heading towards Lawton and then re-evalutate everything.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

New target area along South & North of I-40.

The area from Shamrock TX east toward OKC looks now to be the best area. The Ruc says from Enid OK- Altus OK pops by 21Z. Based on SPC Meso page as the storms move from western OK toward central/NC OK tornados are likely.

One other note the boundary running from NC OK-Shamrock TX is slowing lifting back to the north. Storms south of this boundary moving NNE over this boundary will have lower LCL/LFC to work with and backed SFC winds.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

Radar Update: 1:10 PM

storms going up rapidly from childress to e of big spring...

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for this afternoon, May 6

Chase target:
Wichita Falls, TX

Timing:
New initiation of discrete cells east of the ongoing dryline convection at 4 PM CDT.

Storm mode:
Supercells producing all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes.

Discussion:
Convection is ongoing along a dryline while deeper moisture along with more favorable hodograph curvatures exists east of this area which is still capped. New convection should remain east of anvil blow-off and moisture tapping from the linear dryline convection. A negative today are marginal mid-level lapse rates of 6-7C/km, however SFC dewpoints in the low-70’s will contribute towards MLCAPE’s in excess of 4000J/kG. Backed SFC flow of 25kts beneath SRLY H85 flow will result in impressive hodograph curvatures.

- bill