5/31/09 FCST: MN/SD/NE/IA/MO/IL

[Jason McKittrick]

I to am worried about moisture return. That warm front has been sitting on I 70 all day and hasn't yet shown much of an impetus to move. I will say that the dewpoint on my instruments has risen from 46 to 51 in the past hour. However I don't think low to mid 50's will be enough to get it done this late in the season, especially in the subsident environment behind this afternoons SW.

 

[Derrick Herndon]

Have moved from Omaha to York. Surface flow suggests some confluence just North of here. That along with lift from the approaching s/w hopefully will be enuf to get it done. May drift North from here. Idea is that initiation will begin in about 2 hours near here then move into better environment. One other thing on our side is the slow storm motions. The obs of 66-67 dews from KC seem to verify the NAM forecast of moist tongue nosing into SE Neb this aftn. RUC continues to fire a lone cell in East Neb despite dews that are less than NAM.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Currently holding in Lincoln for maybe some initiation out by GRI or a little NE of there in about 2-3 hrs. Not much hope for tornadoes it appears but maybe a short window for a short term supercell to get going. Will probably end up near Columbus NE eventually which is where my target was last night. It appears that the good moisture return is not as rapid as hoped or desired...and the better inflow LL was over E.Nebraska and a bit out of phase with the strongest moisture advection moving up into SC Nebraska. More updates later as it seems time is on our side today ...good and bad.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Drove past the Vortex2 crew on I-80 on my way to Lincoln. They were headed east. (This should probably go into a NOW thread)

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Rapidly developing/expanding (albeit very weak) CU field near the Clatonia/Wilber/Hallam area. This is the area the RUC has been most consistent in convection all day, although its obviously not on the money today as it has been advertising convection that should have already been ongoing. Still think something *might* come of this area, though probably far from worth wasting time on, even if you're desperate.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I am really surprised that an MD or a watch has not been issued WRT SD/NE right now.

 

[Mark Blue]

We moved from Bellevue to Lincoln and noticed those cumulus clouds hanging around while on I-80 (Dustin). There were too many mid to high level clouds to keep things heating up in the Omaha vicinity, so we are going to head out and check out the Wilber area for grins and giggles. My wife is saying it's too early to throw the white towel in the ring! The Omaha short fuse composite makes me want to be further south (and somewhat west) for some odd reason.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=shortfuse

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm sitting in Lincoln waiting for initiation or failure thereof. I see the cumulus clouds, too.

 

[Chris Carter]

Just to the south and east of Lincoln, i see two distinct cumlus congestus trying to get higher, but it just seems there isnt enough to keep em going...