5/31/09 FCST: MN/SD/NE/IA/MO/IL

[Bryan Stokes]

Disclaimer: I'm very new at reading models/forecasting, so do not put a lot of faith in what I say!

I'm still in Wichita nailing down my target. I'm leaning towards the SE tip of NE, perhaps Falls City, but I'm still concerned about the CIN. It seems like a high chance of a bust, but if things do pop, we could be in for a real treat. CAPE and EHI (0-3km) look good. Moisture looks somewhat ok. But bulk shear looks questionable. Is my assumption of a moderate bust, but possible reward correct? Is there anything else that I'm missing? (my goal here is to learn the forecasting/nowcasting aspect of chasing)

Thanks,
Bryan

 

[Derrick Herndon]

Disclaimer: I'm very new at reading models/forecasting, so do not put a lot of faith in what I say!

I'm still in Wichita nailing down my target. I'm leaning towards the SE tip of NE, perhaps Falls City, but I'm still concerned about the CIN. It seems like a high chance of a bust, but if things do pop, we could be in for a real treat. CAPE and EHI (0-3km) look good. Moisture looks somewhat ok. But bulk shear looks questionable. Is my assumption of a moderate bust, but possible reward correct? Is there anything else that I'm missing? (my goal here is to learn the forecasting/nowcasting aspect of chasing)

Thanks,
Bryan

Well I can reverse it on you I drove to Wichita last year for similar setup (dont recall the day). It had mdt bust potential but big reward if convection could go. In this case an MCS earlier in the day prevented good moisture return and all we saw were fair weather cu. Many people busted in this same area. It just comes with the territory if you are going to chase very much. If you always play it safe you run the risk of missing those isolated cells that can put on a great show. Wichita is a good drive thought so it is a tough call.

 

[Mark Blue]

Per the OAX area forecast discussion posted at 10:49 am, they have recognized the threat in SE and East Central NE and SW IA and are going to conduct a special sounding at 18Z to get a handle on the cap and upper air dynamics. I abandoned my initial target based on some comments posted this morning, but have now done a 180 and am heading back. We didn't get too far so I'm cutting my northern target losses and sticking with those hodo's that looked too good to be true last night around Falls City or Clarinda IA. Time will tell...

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm loving the looks of the latest NAM it is showing what looks to be dryline or some sort punching into the Nebraska City area around 0z breaking out a lone cell that should move east through some awesome shear profiles and decent CAPE and moisture if the RUC is right. I can believe the RUC in terms of how they place the moisture as the dews are quickly rising here in KC, now 56F at the airport (it was 45F about 2 hours ago and the warm front is easier to see now north of Emporia where the temp/dew is 80/64. If we can get the juice up there in time I think it could be a rewarding day in SW Iowa and far SE NE.

 

[Chris Carter]

Left for Sioux Falls this morning, it actually just cleared up, the cloud cover from this morning has moved on and looking west its all clear, i thought about staying close to SE neb, but after seeing more cloud cover move in from kansas along the warm front, i just have a bad feeling that its gonna be a bust down there...

 

[Josh Richardson]

Im a little nervous about not taking a chance at the SE NE/SW IA target but I've made my decision on the northern target and am sticking with it obviously, en route right now to Madison SD. Dews still looking a little scary up here and are starting to worry me a bit, oh well....the way this year is going at least I get to chase I guess.....

 

[Paul Knightley]

We're currently in Sioux City, IA, and trying to decide whether to go north or south! I like the SE NE target area TBH - I quite like small subtle features in situations like this, and the small area of backed flow/enhanced SREH, and lift caused by the shortwave approaching from the west has certainly caught my interest.

 

[Mark Blue]

The richer tongue of dewpoints (59-64) are lifting north with the warm front and are in a box bounded by Concordia to Manhattan and Emporia to Salina. They should be in place later this afternoon.

 

[Paul Knightley]

checked the dews in SW IA/ SE NE. Atlantic IA 34 Omaha 37 Lincoln 44. Best dew point i saw was beatrice at 47.

True, but just behind the warm front the dews over KS are getting into the 60s.

 

[J Trueblood]

Whats with the cloud cover over NE..Won't that hinder any development?

 

[Paul Knightley]

It may do, but I am assuming it's to do with the lift associated with the short wave coming out of the west. It should clear out within an hour or so by the looks of the sat loop.

 

[Michael Towers]

I was targeting the SW IA area but decided to take a pass and sit this one out. For the sake of those of you chasing there I hope I’ll be kicking myself but the same concerns that kept me home remain evident on forecast soundings for NAM, GFS & RUC. Soundings at 0Z 6/1 for Clarinda, Red Oak & Shenandoah continue to show CINH mostly in the -150 range and have also reduced instability and EHI parameters. 0-6km shr remains in the low 30’s range for NAM & GFS but the RUC does project more favorable mid-40’s. None of the models break out precip and TTI’s are mostly <40. In addition to large CINH the Lid Strength at 0Z suggests the cap will hold.

http://www.wxcaster.com/ruc20centralnojava.php?fcsthour=6&type=ATMOS_LSI&region=CENTRAL

As for the SD target I never saw anything to get excited about. I hope I’m wrong on both accounts but I’ll save my shekels to chase something more favorable later next month.

 

[Mark Blue]

How long does it take to make the sounding public?

Here are the 18Z results:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif

A more robust version is here:

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/09053118_OBS/

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm not discouraged yet. The moistening lis supposed to be occuring throughout the day. I'm in Council Bluffs right now trying to figure out what to do next, and on the way I drove under some mid level altocumulus and alto stratus clouds that were visibly raining down virga. I can only assume that the associated evaporation from that will cool the midlevels. Also, on the 18Z special OAX sounding, I was pleased to see the low level cap that doensn't really look that strong as it did in BUFKIT soundings that I looked at earlier today. Shear doesn't look too bad either, and it will also improve towards 00Z. I still think something could happen.

 

[Mark Blue]

Also, on the 18Z special OAX sounding, I was pleased to see the low level cap that doensn't really look that strong as it did in BUFKIT soundings that I looked at earlier today.

That was my exact analysis of the special 18Z OAX sounding - that the cap is eroding. We are sitting in Bellevue biding our time right now. I can only hope the warm front pushing our way from KS is the initiation trigger we need. We've had 10 days of "not much happening" for our 2009 chasecation, so I'm hoping today is the day.