Gabe Garfield
EF5
The 12z ETA is forecasting an interesting weather situation for Tuesday.
At the upper levels, a relatively strong (35-45 kts at 500 mb) shortwave trough is forecast to enter the southern High Plains by Tuesday evening. As a result, a lee trough is developed by the ETA in E. NM which induces southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This in turn is forecast to draw very rich moisture (Tds >65 F) northward and northwestward toward the western Texas panhandle.
As a result of the moisture transport (Tds in Lubbock may be >65 F, which would be incredible considering the elevation) and good lapse rates, strong instability is forecast to develop over west Texas (on the order of 3000 j/kg of CAPE).
Surface winds are forecast to be very backed (SE), winds at 850 are forecast to be reasonably strong (30 kts) and southerly, and the upper-level winds from the west and west-southwest at almost 50 kts. As a result, ETA forecasts a broad swath of helicity > 300 m2/s2 over west Texas.
It should be noted that the 12z GFS develops a significantly weaker shortwave trough for Tuesday evening. However, the upper-level height pattern is fairly similar, and both models forecast precipitation over the region of concern by 00z.
Gabe
At the upper levels, a relatively strong (35-45 kts at 500 mb) shortwave trough is forecast to enter the southern High Plains by Tuesday evening. As a result, a lee trough is developed by the ETA in E. NM which induces southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This in turn is forecast to draw very rich moisture (Tds >65 F) northward and northwestward toward the western Texas panhandle.
As a result of the moisture transport (Tds in Lubbock may be >65 F, which would be incredible considering the elevation) and good lapse rates, strong instability is forecast to develop over west Texas (on the order of 3000 j/kg of CAPE).
Surface winds are forecast to be very backed (SE), winds at 850 are forecast to be reasonably strong (30 kts) and southerly, and the upper-level winds from the west and west-southwest at almost 50 kts. As a result, ETA forecasts a broad swath of helicity > 300 m2/s2 over west Texas.
It should be noted that the 12z GFS develops a significantly weaker shortwave trough for Tuesday evening. However, the upper-level height pattern is fairly similar, and both models forecast precipitation over the region of concern by 00z.
Gabe