5/30/06 FCST: CO / KS / OK / TX

Tuesday is shaping up to have the potential to be a really good chase day. As of right now, things are looking really good in the eyes of chasers. There are a few things that really encourage me to chase on Tuesday and that is the amount of moisture, amount of heat, and that the impulse/energy is being pushed further south with each model run.

Moisture the last few days has been steadily increasing over time and has already reached into the low to mid 60s over the TX and OK Panhandles. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid 90s and with TDs in the mid 60s, and temps in the 90s, CAPE values will be extremely high in the 3000 to 4000 range.

To throw another twist into the puzzle, a cool front/wind shift line will enter the picture. Where ever this front stalls, probally in the OK Panhandle, this is where the best veering of the winds will be and thus the highest tornado threat willl be. With energy approaching, storms will fire rapidly with or without the cap. Best tornado threat will exist behind the front. I'm going to keep my fingers crossed and hope that the front will push a little farther south and stall on a Woodward to Canadian to Dumas line. My target is here at home in Booker, TX. Good luck to all that chases.
 
I'm surprised it took this long for this thread to start up - maybe its because of the holiday, or maybe its because of the questionable handling by the models (the 27/12Z GFS seemed to suffer a little from convective feedback in W OK). The limiting factors I see are the lack of strong upper level support as the 250 and 300 millibar winds are progged to be AOA 50 knots per the NAM 29/0Z. 500 millibar flow looks somewhat weak, and even worse on the GFS 29/0Z. A distinct dryline bulge appears on both, but the NAM produces it much further south with the apex between Altus and Clinton, while the GFS seems to prefer west of Woodward/close to Gage. I will go with the NAM solution on this one due to its higher spatial resolution, though I anxiously await the 12Z runs as I sit here. I would choose a preliminary target of Sayre, OK just to the NE of the dryline bulge.
 
The other reason you haven't seen much posting on this has been the unparalleled amount of driving time most of seasonal chasers have had to dedicate to getting to our bust locations making us too tired to actually forecast (LOL :)).

Not entirely sure what to make of the upper level winds on the NAM forecast (36/12z) showing a small scale jet stream at H5 with a wind max up to 45kts (?) in SE CO/SW KS. This area also corresponds to the right rear entry region of the 300mb jet streak which could favor lift. Cap looks breakable (easily) due to daytime heating alone...H7 temps are in the 0-7.5 deg range in the same vicinity. Good upslope winds will be in play at the sfc. Very nice UVVs forecast in that area. And, in contrast to chasing the cap the past few days, QPF should is forecast to break out in this area confirming the strength of the setup.

Like the area from Lamar CO to DDC.
 
Passing OMA now heading for Wichita. Agree that the TX/OK panhandles are the place to be the next two days. After that, the ridge builds and we will b e moving north playing upslope along the Front Range. TM
 
Actually suprised to see that SPC put the tornado threat that far south into the Southern and Southeastern Panhandle. Still feel that the SPC is a little too far south with this and that the tornado threat will exist where winds will be backed, and that is across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Dew points continue to rise and now are sitting in the upper 50s and over 70s across parts of Oklahoma. Temps are still looking to climb into the mid to upper 90s, and these temperatures combined with upper 60 tds, this will lead to CAPE values around 3500. Everything still looks good and I my target is going to be Beaver, OK.
 
I'm not going to go into much detail, but I really don't think tomorrow looks bad. I haven't looked at much yet, but the forecast hodograph for Canadian TX looks pretty good. As of right now I would target Canadian and plan on chasing the area between there and Woodward. That is all subject to change once mesoscale details become clear tomorrow. I am not confident enough to make the call that I'm going right now, but I plan on checking data first thing tomorrow and pulling the trigger then if there still appears to be an isolated tornado threat. The biggest problem I see with the tornado potential is the t-td spread. On the other hand, I and glad to see half way decent deep layer shear again and directional shear is great. It's hard to say no after the crap we've been dealing with over the last month and I do think it has the potential to be a sleeper.
 
Chase target:
Boyd, OK (35 miles east of Guymon in the eastern OK panhandle).

Timing:
Renewed convection in the target area at 2 PM CDT.

Comments:
A full spectrum of severe weather appears possible, including tornadoes. Individual storms will track to the east at 15 mph.

Discussion:
11Z SFC analysis shows ongoing convection in SWRN KS along with an attendant nearly stationary OFB analyzed along a Liberal, KS to Woodward, OK to Kingfisher line. This convection should experience a weakening trend over the next several hours before new convection develops along and just N of the OFB. By mid-afternoon, a compact mid-level wave will approach the area under the right-entrance region of the H3 streak.

Excellent instability will be juxtaposed with impressive shear paramaters. SFC temperatures and dewpoints in the 80's and low 60's respectively, with a moist layer approximately 50mb deep, under cool mid-level temperatures (H7 temps of around 6C along and H5 temps of -10C), will result in MLCAPEs of at least 2000 J/kg with CIN eroding by early afternoon. Expect (SFC-6km) deep layer shear to increase to 60kts as increased flow from aformentioned SHWV spreads in over 10kt ERLY SFC flow. Additionally, hodograph curvatures will be inpressive immediately to the north of the SFC boundary, with (SFC-3km) SRH's to 300m^2/s^2.

- bill
 
Target: Perryton, TX Time of Departure: 10 AM Survived the 900 mile drive southward from Fargo, ND yesterday. Will head west from Wichita, KS. PROS: MCS in W KS will leave an outflow boundary somewhere in the panhandles and we plan to play that. Nice easterly winds at the surface near the boundary and ample moisture. CONS: Lots of storms will blow up today due to little cap. Weaker 500 mb winds than I like. Plan to stay in that area for WED. TM
 
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