Aaron Kennedy
EF5
Stickin it out near GF at least through noon to see how moisture transport and low cloud evolution goes. If either of those don't look great then we'll head SW towards Jamestown after noon and adjust from there.
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5/28/07 FCST: SD/MN/IA/NE/ND/WI
- Thread starter Brian Stertz
- Start date
Matthew Crowther
EF4
Too far a drive to target ND- the cap may play a big role today and the best low-level shear is progged to be pretty far north. If I had a transort beam I would be north of Jamestown to Devil's Lake. farther SW the cap will hold until about 00Z, then expect a squall line. Am currently in Valentine and hoping for a Black Hills surprise later today, then we will target SE Colorado tomorrow based on the latest NAM.
Paul Knightley
EF5
Will be playing the 83 corridor north of Pierre today - 00Z ECMWF has very favourable low-level shear for tornadoes, but the upper flow, like on the other models, is not great. Towards evening, the 500 hPa flow becomes pretty unidirectional with the 850 flow, suggesting storms will quickly merge into a line. Still, with only 2 days before we fly home we've got to go for it!
Ryan Pfannkuch
EF1
playing south
3-county target area in western SD: Pennington (eastern part of county east of Rapid City), Ziebach and Haakon
Including the cities of: Wall, Phillip, Dupree
Frustrating fcst to say the least...anybody agree?
Pretty much in the same boat at Mr. Crowther...with the ND target just being too far away today to justify given the multiple question marks. Going to play the southern end of the frontal boundary per the 12/15z RUC...in the region northeast of the slowly strengthening sfc low near the WY-NE-SD border. Mid-level flow and deep layer shear obviously nothing to brag about in this area...but maybe something good can come out of playing the southern portions of the boundary and getting something to stay a little more discrete. Best of luck to all on this complex setup.
3-county target area in western SD: Pennington (eastern part of county east of Rapid City), Ziebach and Haakon
Including the cities of: Wall, Phillip, Dupree
Frustrating fcst to say the least...anybody agree?
Pretty much in the same boat at Mr. Crowther...with the ND target just being too far away today to justify given the multiple question marks. Going to play the southern end of the frontal boundary per the 12/15z RUC...in the region northeast of the slowly strengthening sfc low near the WY-NE-SD border. Mid-level flow and deep layer shear obviously nothing to brag about in this area...but maybe something good can come out of playing the southern portions of the boundary and getting something to stay a little more discrete. Best of luck to all on this complex setup.
Scott Weberpal
EF5
Currently in Sioux Falls, have committed to blasting north on 29 to get into Northeast ND. Worried about stronger cap and weak QPF signal further south and southwest. Echoing other, by far best deep layer shear is further north, and moisture advection appears to be a non-issue at this point. Jamestown is 74/62 at noon. Will adjust accordingly throughout afternoon.
Brian Stertz
EF5
Just a quick scan of the data (including a spicy RUC forecast) indicates that there is a good target setting up across NE North Dakota in the Devil's Lake area. The area will be in vicinity of a boundary intersection...solidly in a 40-55 kt. effective shear zone...and 4000-5000 SB CAPEs by late afternoon. The warm front appears to be lifting nicely now into S. North Dakota so this continued movement should place it north of I-94 and likely in the Devils Lake ND area. I am liking this area more and more for today's tornado sweet spot. Best of luck to those chasing the C & NE North Dakota area this afternoon.
we are moving a bit north to Carrington, ND to better set-up for initiation...
UPDATE: nice overcast up in carrington, nothing that looks inviting, lots of lines of clouds heading NE, we have seen many ground level lines of dust clouds blowing up...we will pull back a bit south in pingree, ND for a better view of west...
UPDATE: nice overcast up in carrington, nothing that looks inviting, lots of lines of clouds heading NE, we have seen many ground level lines of dust clouds blowing up...we will pull back a bit south in pingree, ND for a better view of west...
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Stuart Robinson
EF5
Front is moving faster than anticipated. We will move east on I-94 to Jamestown, ND. TM
Eric Flescher
EF5
now surprised to see on SPC
Decided to stay home today in Olathe, KS and try to get things done while I wait for storms to happen in the near future.
I was surprised to see 15% on SPC for western Kansas and OK.
it reads
"GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND 30 TO 40 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE WITH NNEWD EXTENT ALONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS KS AND NEB...WHERE A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST."
anybody chasing in either state?
Decided to stay home today in Olathe, KS and try to get things done while I wait for storms to happen in the near future.
I was surprised to see 15% on SPC for western Kansas and OK.
it reads
"GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND 30 TO 40 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE WITH NNEWD EXTENT ALONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS KS AND NEB...WHERE A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST."
anybody chasing in either state?
Last edited by a moderator:
Aaron Kennedy
EF5
Currently sitting at home in Grand Forks. Pretty content with staying here considering temperature and moisture advection has been rampant. We are sitting at 75/61 with a 65dp down south in Fargo. 15-17Z RUC indicates a mesolow developing just west of GFK. If this occurs, I would be partial to shifting N/NW a tad to keep in the area of backed winds. I expect initiation to occur somewhere 30min to an hour west of here near Devils Lake. This area should offer the best blend of thermodynamics and kinematics.
Aaron
Aaron
Aaron, we are in pingree, ND...with wind blowing from the east, lots of broken lines of clouds heading NNE, back up towards devils lake, there is a double layer of clouds witht the lower moving NNE, the upper seems to be holding.
Can you give me any input from these observations?
Rebecca Obrecht
Johnathan, Aaron and I are hanging out in the office looking over data, and it appears that it's clear just to the east of you.
cedwards
EF5
We are sitting here in Carrington, ND. There is plenty of low-level Cu overhead. the high clouds are well to our north. The RUC shows CAPE over 5300 by 0Z in the area. Will sit here and wait for the explosive developement that should start by 20Z-21Z.
Well, after discussing with our teamates, we have decided to park it at the crossroad in Glenfield, ND and wait and see...data is sporatic here at the best so we'll try to post when we can
Brian Stertz
EF5
Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests that supercell initiation should be very rapid within the next hour in the Devils Lake - Grafton ND area on the boundary. The surface low is starting to organize sw of Devils Lake (between there and Carrington). Strong moisture and theta convergence is shown in this area. Looks like the LLJ has brought some capping up the Red River Valley into E. North Dakota and W.Minnesota this afternoon. Main supercell threat are looks like it will be focused across Walsh, Benson, Ramsey, Wells, Eddy, and Nelson Counties of C/NE North Dakota. Best of luck to the chase group up there (Jeff, Kathryn, Terry, Greg, David, Sean & Katie) !!
