5/28/05 TALK: Plains

[Mike Peregrine]

Pretty much a longshot, and will most likely be a multicell day, but still plan to chase anyway. It's May ... there's gas in my tank ... and it's close. I plan to stick with NE Kansas today, where the cap may not be as much of a consideration as it is further to the southwest, and there is descent shear - enough to get a few good shots off as the towers go up. Thinking it won't take long for things to become outflow-oriented, however (should the cap break, that is).

 

[Anthony Silver]

Depending on what type of scenario evolves, I'll likely be heading towards Concordia to see if any action pops there. Tomorrow looks to be more of a hail threat than anything, but some good wind and possible isolated tornado events could occur as well. The cap shouldnt be much of a hindering factor due to the mid level disturbances coming through.

 

[Joe Zemek]

Initial target of Limon for data/directional refining. The RUC--who knows what the RUC is thinkin--likes E CO a lot, and latest SPC modification restricts tornado prob to CO/KS/NE area. Plus, it's nearby and there's no obvious Day 2 target. IF the low develops in CO as advertised, local convergence should pop a good cell or two and hopefully it can lower its LCL over time. At least, that's my thinking until the next NAM totally contradicts this.

Chase time.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Liking today's setup since it's a weekend and close to home. Amanda and I will be heading out I-70 towards Flagler, CO mid-day and see what develops.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Well, I will be taking the same approach as Mike Peregrine for today's setup. With no distinct area of surface convergence to justify driving to a more remote target, I like the chances around my home area as good as any on this nice Saturday afternoon. Surface dewpoint observations in E Central and NE KS are running a few degrees higher than forecast under clear skies this morning. We had showers for a few hours in the area late yesterday afternoon - enough to suspect a contribution from evaporation. I like the gradient of cold air aloft and some decent helicity. Isolated cumulus that sprang up this morning had a very crisp visual edge, hopefully a harbinger of things to come. Also, current analysis shows 9-11km storm relative winds 70-80 kts - while equilibrium level will have to rise substantially this afternoon to take advantage, nice to know it is there. While LCL's are forecast in the 1,400 m range in E Central KS by 00z, the LFC is forecast only a couple hundred meters higher. I guess surface lifting mechanism is probably the biggest question mark, but since I'm taking no big bets on driving to a distant target, I'll go about other activities in the meantime and see what the day has to offer.

 

[Brett Adair]

Not too sure who reported this, but Rawlins Co., KS just went under tornado warning due to this.

* AT 321 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
MCDONALD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BEARDSLEY BY 330 PM CDT...
BLAKEMAN BY 345 PM CDT...
ATWOOD BY 355 PM CDT...

Hopefully it was one of our guys!