5/28/05 TALK: Plains

Pretty much a longshot, and will most likely be a multicell day, but still plan to chase anyway. It's May ... there's gas in my tank ... and it's close. I plan to stick with NE Kansas today, where the cap may not be as much of a consideration as it is further to the southwest, and there is descent shear - enough to get a few good shots off as the towers go up. Thinking it won't take long for things to become outflow-oriented, however (should the cap break, that is).
 
Depending on what type of scenario evolves, I'll likely be heading towards Concordia to see if any action pops there. Tomorrow looks to be more of a hail threat than anything, but some good wind and possible isolated tornado events could occur as well. The cap shouldnt be much of a hindering factor due to the mid level disturbances coming through.
 
Initial target of Limon for data/directional refining. The RUC--who knows what the RUC is thinkin--likes E CO a lot, and latest SPC modification restricts tornado prob to CO/KS/NE area. Plus, it's nearby and there's no obvious Day 2 target. IF the low develops in CO as advertised, local convergence should pop a good cell or two and hopefully it can lower its LCL over time. At least, that's my thinking until the next NAM totally contradicts this.

Chase time.
 
Liking today's setup since it's a weekend and close to home. Amanda and I will be heading out I-70 towards Flagler, CO mid-day and see what develops. :D
 
Well, I will be taking the same approach as Mike Peregrine for today's setup. With no distinct area of surface convergence to justify driving to a more remote target, I like the chances around my home area as good as any on this nice Saturday afternoon. Surface dewpoint observations in E Central and NE KS are running a few degrees higher than forecast under clear skies this morning. We had showers for a few hours in the area late yesterday afternoon - enough to suspect a contribution from evaporation. I like the gradient of cold air aloft and some decent helicity. Isolated cumulus that sprang up this morning had a very crisp visual edge, hopefully a harbinger of things to come. Also, current analysis shows 9-11km storm relative winds 70-80 kts - while equilibrium level will have to rise substantially this afternoon to take advantage, nice to know it is there. While LCL's are forecast in the 1,400 m range in E Central KS by 00z, the LFC is forecast only a couple hundred meters higher. I guess surface lifting mechanism is probably the biggest question mark, but since I'm taking no big bets on driving to a distant target, I'll go about other activities in the meantime and see what the day has to offer.
 
Not too sure who reported this, but Rawlins Co., KS just went under tornado warning due to this.

* AT 321 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
MCDONALD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BEARDSLEY BY 330 PM CDT...
BLAKEMAN BY 345 PM CDT...
ATWOOD BY 355 PM CDT...

Hopefully it was one of our guys! :)
 
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