5/26/09 FCST: TX/OK

[Sam Hall]

Hope I am ok to start a thread for tomorrow...

Our chase target thus far from studying the current WRF charts will be to travel to Wichita Falls, and maybe go further if necessary to Abilene. We travelled a long distance today from NE to Blackwell OK to position for an early start tomorrow. We decided on Blackwell to give us options to go SW or S to either the TX panhandle or N/CTR TX.

CAPE progged to be up to 4000 J/kg further into TX, only worry is the CIN profiles look alright for midday and then going awful in this area later on. LI up to -10 in this area too though. If anything kicks off earlier and we don't make that, perhaps something may spark a bit later on in the panhandle or around.

Winds looking much better than of late too, and I am expecting to see some nice shearing anvils tomorrow with the stronger 300 mb level winds. Just a bit concerned in some areas with the look of lower 500 mb winds.

We have decided to meet at 7am to check the charts again (they are completely different to how they were this morning) to decide if we are going to go for Wichita Falls and below areas or the panhandle...

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Low forecast to drape over Eastern Iowa tomorrow may chug up a spinup twister or two in the far northern reaches of Illinois/far IA/far south WI area. Noticed it after lazily checking out the SEE TEXT and spotting the 2%. SPC's range is a bit wide IMO; the best chance is from a boundary rider from the popcorn progged to develop there. Checked out the NAM and noticed some absolutely incredible 25kt 500mb's there, which will make for nice, soupy multicells, but in all seriousness there is some decent 0-1 km SRH in front of that low which may spell out a brief nader or two. NAM's predicted reflectivity shows decent activity around the 3-7 PM span there in the NW IL vicinity.

Since the setup probably means difficult radar detection and a lifespan of sneeze-you-lose for anything that does happen, I probably won't chase this given my super-tight budget and fading hopes for late June. So all you Illinois guys better suit up for a surprise tornado outbreak since I'm likely sitting this one out.

Sorry for the bitter/lazy forecast, but it is 2009.

 

[Mark Blue]

We're targeting southern Oklahoma today, somewhere in the Arbuckle Mountain area (perhaps Ardmore). We believe the MCS that moved through the southern part of the state overnight and early this morning will lay down an outflow boundary that will light up this afternoon with some daytime heating. With surface temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints around 60, and the approach of the cold front we're hoping for something a little more exciting than what we've seen recently up north (rain storms). The shear in the upper levels looks okay today, but shear in the lower levels is nothing to write home about. Other than quote a bunch of numbers that aren't that astounding no matter how you slice it, we're going to just play basic meteorological surface features today and hope for the best.

I did notice some more favorable winds in the GoM over the last several hours (finally). I am glad to see that warm core low get the heck outta there.

 

[Genaro Estrada]

SC OK/NC TX

We're heading down to South Central OK as well. Nice looking CU field is already developing on that left boundary from yesterday's storms. LI's are at -8 or so, and CAPE is between 4K j/kg last we checked in that area. Shear is not great, but maybe sufficient once storms initialize along the old outflow boundaries. Daytime heating is approaching convective temperature at near 90. SPC just updated to 2% torn risk from Ardmore south to north central Texas, so, gotta play it being that there's not much else to chase, and I'm with a friend all the way from California!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Ah, the feel of >67F dewpoints and high CAPE! After spending much time in NW NE and the Black Hills of SD last week, I'm very happy to be chasing a higher CAPE, much higher moisture setup. Sure, mid-level flow is pitiful down here, but at least we have good moisture, good instability (not entirely uncorrelated with the good moisture, obviously), and a decent boundary around. It seems that we have at least one day each year that features high moisture, high CAPE, a boundary, and weak flow aloft that manages to squeeke out a very slow-moving tornadic supercell. For example, refer to 6-13-07 and 5-24-08. I would really like our surface winds to back more (E or SE at 15 kts woud be lovely), but, again, I'll certainly gladly chase this. Depending upon the exact storm motion, we may get a storm that can ride along or anchor on the old OFB and do smoething that we haven't been able to witness yet during V2. I think we'll see multicells unless we get some favorable storm interactions with nearby boundary / boundaries.

 

[Mark Blue]

The 0Z RUC Skew-T for Dallas Fort Worth is looking rather nice I might say (check 6 hour box).

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=kdfw

The outflow boundary from last night's convection is lining up right across the "Slight Risk" area too with a nice SW to NE orientation. I too am looking at the agitated Cu field in south central OK as we're driving along. Once the cap is breached the 4000+ CAPE that is boiling is going to hopefully go nuts. The LIs between Ardmore and Dallas are right at 9 values right now. If this does what it should I will quickly forget the pain of the last 5 days!