SHORT: Frustrating day, but not for want of a good forecast. Busted along the OFB.
LONGER: Chase partners Bill Hark and Robert Balogh. The OFB that had generated early convection in ICT continued to move west. On the southern end of the OFB (on the KS/OK border), winds at the sfc looked highly convergent and the tongue of wildly narrow T/Td spreads looked primed. The OFB stalled slowly but not before undercutting storms over VNX. In fact, when we were north of the boundary/cold front, outside temps dropped to the 70s. South of it, the temps were above 90. I really liked the balance of 350/800mb crossover winds balanced with high CAPE, and a dry punch moving in from the SW, but didn't want to drop too far south where ventilation was going to be a problem and rotational/speed sheer began to drop off.
Ultimately, we targeted a storm that had a very promising appearance moving through Ellis and Woodward Ctys in OK and were especially pleased with how it looked like it was going to intersect with the OFB as the storms moved NE; we knew that the storms were likely high based, but could begin to benefit from the insane sfc moisture. To our shock, the cells went from good-ish appearing to gone in a matter of 30 mins. Worse, having been in Pratt only hours before, we watched as the OFB enhanced the cells near Pratt and realized that the shape of the boundary favored enhancing those cells with attendant risks for tornadoes. Which, now, we know did exactly that. Ouch.
Cells continued to congeal into an ugly mess, which Bill called convective vomit (which I thought was hysterical) and apt given the radar appearance. We were committed to the south at that point with no chance of seeing catching back up in time to enjoy the hailfest. We found ourselves squarely in the middle of no storms at all with warm, moist SE winds and nothing to for them to feed into.
Still, we felt very good with our forecasting today overall. It's hard to bust in a moderate risk. But we've had a good chase vacation, and have nothing really to regret.
My question to you gurus out there was what made you stick with the Pratt storms early? What about that specific area looked better to you? Was it the OFB with the SSW winds? Or did we miss something more subtle? Convergence, Tds, etc., drew us south.