5/2/08 FCST: IA/WI/IL/MI/IN/MO/AR/TN/KY/TX/LA/MS

[Andrew Herron]

The warm front has already reached Michigan and things are starting to heat up quite nicely even with out heavy sun. I'm most worried about the convective mess from this morning preventing any further development this afternoon.

The latest NAM is pulling back on the CAPE and overall focus for afternoon development so I think I'll be sitting this one out unless something big happens, like a massive dry slot.

 

[Doyle McIntosh]

spc now has an MD for basically all of central Indiana with Indianapolis in the middle. Thinking we could have a pretty intense squall line form around 3 or 4pm The sun has been out all day up until just this moment. Stuck between soundings out of ILX and ILN but they both at least show no capping. I'm supposed to go to work today from noon till 6. Considering calling in sick.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

After an exhausting chase to NW Iowa yesterday (which I swore I wasn't going to do the night before), I wasn't sure if I'd have the will to chase again today after waking of up a largely convectively contaminated upper midwest. Now seeing abundant clearing in NE Iowa making its way into SW WI, I'll have to give it a shot. Deep layer shear should be fantastic for tornadic storms given at least 1000 j/kg of cape can be realized. This figures to be the last shot for decent storms in the upper midwest for at least a week, so I'll be happy with whatever I get. Anything will beat the junkus storms in NW Iowa yesterday - save the lone tornadic storm (wish I would have left an hour earlier).

 

[J West]

My concern at this time is eastern Iowa was starting to clear out but now it seems the clearing is more concentrated over northern Illinois, and even that is a fairly narrow sliver. Any storms that fire will have initially have a harder time tapping into their environment and becoming surface-based if they form further east into Illinois and not back in Iowa.

That said, I'll be headed towards Rockford shortly from the western Milwaukee 'burbs.