5/18/2010 FCST: TX,NM,OK,CO

[Bryan Stokes]

I overnighted in Clayton, but am thinking of positioning myself in Boise City or Dalhart and then watch current conditions to see how things develop. Either place will give me the ability to reposition quickly to the north or south.

According to the 16z RUC, there will be higher CAPE and Sfc-500 mb Bulk Shear in the TX panhandle. However, the 16Z SPC Outlook seems to favor areas further north into SE CO and SW KS for tornadic development, but I'm just not seeing it. Is it better low-level convergence that is leading the SPC to their bullish outlook in the northern target?

Bryan

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Good question. Surface winds in E Cntrl CO are progged to back nicely later in the day especially near I-70 - which of course helps low-level convergence. Also good insolation in that area, which is currently clear, will boost CAPEs. You don't need a lot of CAPE in CO for tornadoes. Maybe these are SPC's considerations.

 

[Adam Adkins]

Looks like a great target would be Elizabeth/Monument, CO. It looks like the favorable place for supercells to begin. Great convergence and CAPE in that area as well. Although I would LOVE to have some opinions on that!

 

[Scott Hammel]

Tornado watch issued for all of E CO. Vis sat shows there was some nice clearing all through this morning in E CO and along the Palmer. Heating has destabilized the atmosphere and will help erode with little cap there is. Best helicity values are in a small area of S CO near Lamar and up in NE CO somewhere between Limon and Ft. Morgan. Should be a very interesting afternoon...

 

[Eian Greene]

Looks like a great target would be Elizabeth/Monument, CO. It looks like the favorable place for supercells to begin. Great convergence and CAPE in that area as well. Although I would LOVE to have some opinions on that!

I live in the Rockrimmon neighborhood in COS... Perfect setup for a frontyard chase. I second the Palmer divide as a target, simply because it's a good bet there will be a TOR or 2 in a few hrs up that way. NWS PUB has highlighted my old stomping grounds in Calhan as a favorable area, which struck me as odd, since Calhan tends to miss out on the worst of things usually.
I'll be hanging around COS for now, and keeping my eye on the Palmer Divide for today's setup.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Target for today: Initial E. NM near TX border.

TCUN profiler looking increasingly impressive over the last few hours.

Surface winds in NM are slowly beginning to turn SW w/gusts in the 20 mph range. Cirrus shield has thinned enough to allow CAPES of 2k (+) into western TX. SPC Meso Analysis, including multi-parameter fields favor svr in the same region.

I would like to see a little more CU development in E /NM by now, but its still early and hopefully this will happen soon w/ +convergence along the dryline. If not, back-up play may be to catch something off the mountains in NE NM before dark.

Good luck to all....

W.

Edit: Should also note secondary areas in E. Colorado for svr. development.

 

[Eian Greene]

Try east of Simla to Matheson or S. of Calhan. Some potential stuff cooking up out that way.
As for the Palmer Divide, it can be finickey. I've had success when storms fire west of monument over the Rampart Range near Woodland Park, and then they move eastwards over where you're at, Adam.