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5/17/04 FCST: KS, NE, IA, IL, MI

Scott Roberts

SPC Slight Risk for this area Monday. With the action keying (again, like May 12th) on the front, positioning will be crucial. Can't begin to count the number of times Kansas has had storms on my birthday, so why should this one be any different? :D

After a much needed break from severe weather over the weekend, it's possible that we see a return for the start of the workweek!

A big warmup moves in on Monday, with temps approaching 80 degrees and humidity up there as well. That gives us an unstable atmosphere during the day -- but nothing really to kick it off. We could see some thunderstorms develop, and if so they likely will be severe with hail and high winds.

Of more concern is the approach of a cold front Monday night. The good news is that with the loss of daytime heating - the threat for severe storms diminishes as well. The bad news is that we don't cool off very quickly, and the winds ahead of the front are strongly suggestive of a tornado threat. It'll be a "race" between the diminishing instability and increasing winds...

So we could see a storm at any point during the afternoon and evening - but my main concern is early Monday night.

- Rob
Look out 5-17 !!!

WOW !! In looking at progs for tomorrow, looks like a very interesting scenario setting up for SW Kansas (surface low??). Front drapes across central Kansas NE, while tighter dryline appears to take shape from SW Kansas through the panhandles.

Gees, makes you think, eh? Nothing fired down here (TX Panhandle) today, so skies should remain mostly clear. Outflow boundaries may play a role also towards the Oklahoma/TX/SW Kansas areas.

I'll go out on a limb here and say target area = ~ Meade, Kansas.

Now, if I can just have a quiet day at work, sneak out around noon, and have some good luck, it'll be fun and relatively close to home.

Any thoughts ?? :idea:
My initial plan is to head straight out on I-70 and try and be in Goodland no later than 18Z, then make my adjustments as needed then. I blew a tire on my way into Southwest Nebraska and called my chase off (chasing bad weather on a donut; bad idea). I am replacing that first thing in the morning on my way out.

I am thinking about a target near Scott City for tomorrow, but will make a more defined plan in the morning. Looks like it could be a good day! :D
More Storms in NE??

Just making a quick look at the forecasts early this morning (have to be at work by 6 A.M.). Looks like we will have a scenario similar to yesterday with NE bearing the brunt of the tornadic storms. The key to the whole situation is daytime heating and position of the approaching cold front.

If it slows down or stalls out, then the central southern and southeast part of NE could see a repeat of yesterday. But if the front moves in before the daytime heating reaches its prime, then the action will either shift south or southeast.

A check of the infrared satellite view shows clearing skies over southwest NE and western KS. Those areas will be primed for daytime heating. That with the clashing of the cold front slipping down from the N/NW. If conditions are right, we could see a classic cold front storm situation beginning in southern NE and eventually affecting eastern NE and KS.

Since Grand Island has always been a "magnet" for tornadoes, that will be my Target Area pick of the day.

Gas up (Ding,Ding) and prepare for another chase day. 8) LJK.
Rob, it appears your take on the situation in MI was spot on. The SPC has upgraded the tornado probs over part of MI to 5% on their 1300 outlook.

Also, Mike Guekes, if you're reading this, get those cameras ready! Looks like you'll be very near some action.
Here we go again... another active week. New SPC outlook shows a new 5% tornado and significant wind BULLSEYE over lower penn. of MI. Here in Chicago, the LCL's are around 1000, and LFC's are below 1900. It's 66/64 at 9:10 AM The temperature is expected to exceed the level required for initiation by late this afternoon. Perhaps everything falling into place for some nasty storms? Here's to the Mid-May broken record. :)

Yep, it appears they have put the bullseye on us today. We are just now starting to see some sun here in Big Rapids. We've got a strong southerly wind, and moisture is on the rise. Will the clouds clear out enough for some heating???


Today is shaping up now. I should have taken off. RUC forecast 0-3km SRH forecasted to be 300 around Wichita, KS by 0z and Cape close to 3000 J/kg. If this verifies I think this could be another 5/12/04 repeat.
To bad I have to arm chair this one.

Mickey Ptak
My initial target for today is Ness City KS. Most likely will be adjusted somewhere between Ness City and Great Bend. Good multi-directional road options on major highways and should be just E-NE of the organizing surface low and not too far from the CF. Also good destabilization underway with strong mid-may insolation in this aforementioned corridor. We will need it because as the new SPC outlook stated the warm nose as seen on DDC sounding is more pronounced than yesterday. With forecasted dynamics in place, however, its is breakable.

Unfortunately I'm just nowcasting today for Biddle and Matt Svendold. :x Starting to regret taking my vacation last week but i'm very optimistic about this coming wknd.
I'm starting in Newton, KS today. It may be a little too far east, but road access is decent, and Sprint PCS should work, being close enough to 135. Good luck to everybody in the upper Midwest today. :wink:
Cold front has arrived.

In the last half hour, the frontal boundary of a cold front has moved thru Lincoln NE. Nothing more than a light sprinkle and a wind shift. Getting some scattered sprinkles around the SE Nebraska area now. The frontal boundary is clearly defined in the Base Reflectivity range on the NWS radar. The band of rain/showers is interacting with the active band moving northeast from central NE into IA. Going to take a few more hours for the frontal boundary to reach the KS area. Today may be a bust day for the storm chasers, although still some time left for the afternoon heating in KS to take place. 8) LJK.