5/14/2010 FCST: TX/NM

[Matthew Crowther]

Plan to drive south for what looks like a pretty good setup in far SW Texas and eastern NM for tomorrow. Cold front should stall later today- a good sign is that the convective line now in NW TX from north of MWL to south of SJT is showing no southward progress. The 12Z NAM shows a nice SW flow of about 40kts at H5 over the target area tomorrow afternoon evening- expect a few supercells from near SJT to near or south of MAF back into SE New Mexico. We may stay near SJT tonight and refine the target tomorrow.

 

[Jeff Passner]

Matt's logic seems good to me. My target might be a little south and west of his. Increasing winds aloft, divergence at 300 hPa, low-level easterlies, a 60 dew point, perhaps upslope on the Davis Mountains if the dryline doesn't mix east, and enough sunshine to create the needed instability. Negatives are 700 hPa flow being a little weak and the road network in the region. My initial target will be Monahans, Texas. I can leave from home in the morning and refine the target, but I see it as a good chance of supercells that will be moving NE at 25 mph.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Target for today is INK and regions south as roads allow.

Trick today appears to set-up far enough south so any storm will have some time to develop before moving north into stable rain-cooled air. Chasers might want to remember the LEO situation in Crane (?) County and use caution.

W.