Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Target for Monday, May 12
Chase target:
Beeler, KS (35 miles northeast of Garden City).
Timing and storm mode:
An isolated high-based supercell or two may fire along the dryline between 5 and 6 PM, however a bust is a definite possibility.
Synopsis:
Northwesterly LLVL flow has scoured SFC moisture all of the way to the Gulf… Return flow has commenced from WRN TX through SWRN NEB, however SFC dewpoints remain in the 30F-35F range as of 5Z within a region of slow moisture advection.
Discussion:
Lee low pressure will organize in NWRN NEB by 00Z, and shift S during the evening hours. Meanwhile, a DL will mix EWRD and may provide the focus for a storm or two as SFC dewpoints raise to near 50F and a compact S/WV approaches. A narrow axis of meager CAPEs should develop as an EML and very steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the area. Depending on the amount of localized SFC moisture recovery, pockets of MLCAPEs to 1000J/kg may be present. Providing that storms initiate E of the DL within the moist axis, and that sufficient instability exists, shear parameters will be sufficient for storm organization and rotating updrafts. Looking at guidance, of particular note is a compact S/WV with an axis of strong UVM, along US-283 in KS at 23Z, as depicted by the WRF - And to a lesser extent by the GFS, in this case as two or more separate pieces of energy at the H6-H5 level that may provide the necessary kick in the pants for isolated convection in an otherwise marginal environment.
- bill
12:15 PM CDT, 05/12/08
Chase target:
Beeler, KS (35 miles northeast of Garden City).
Timing and storm mode:
An isolated high-based supercell or two may fire along the dryline between 5 and 6 PM, however a bust is a definite possibility.
Synopsis:
Northwesterly LLVL flow has scoured SFC moisture all of the way to the Gulf… Return flow has commenced from WRN TX through SWRN NEB, however SFC dewpoints remain in the 30F-35F range as of 5Z within a region of slow moisture advection.
Discussion:
Lee low pressure will organize in NWRN NEB by 00Z, and shift S during the evening hours. Meanwhile, a DL will mix EWRD and may provide the focus for a storm or two as SFC dewpoints raise to near 50F and a compact S/WV approaches. A narrow axis of meager CAPEs should develop as an EML and very steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the area. Depending on the amount of localized SFC moisture recovery, pockets of MLCAPEs to 1000J/kg may be present. Providing that storms initiate E of the DL within the moist axis, and that sufficient instability exists, shear parameters will be sufficient for storm organization and rotating updrafts. Looking at guidance, of particular note is a compact S/WV with an axis of strong UVM, along US-283 in KS at 23Z, as depicted by the WRF - And to a lesser extent by the GFS, in this case as two or more separate pieces of energy at the H6-H5 level that may provide the necessary kick in the pants for isolated convection in an otherwise marginal environment.
- bill
12:15 PM CDT, 05/12/08
