5/09/10 FCST: CO/KS/NE/TX

[jamesmseitz]

5/09/10 FCST: CO/KS/NE/TX/OK

I have been watching the GFS as well as GENS and the GEFS Spaghetti Charts and thinking with a decent confidence that this date will be the start of a muti-day chase.

On the 9th, there seems to be system that shows a very pronounced dry line with very nice Cross over Winds (850-500MB) and DP in the Upper 50's to 60's in TX. The Temp's in a few runs have been poorer but lately it is showing 70's + and the Mixing, I believe, that this might be a good day. The Lift Index is showing -4 to -5 in KS and -6 or so in TX. . There also shows a thin line of cape edging into NE at the 00z time frame along the dry line about the KS CO boarder. Plus GFS, for the most part, short changing the instability this far out and with the topography in the higher terrain in KS 50's DP's are ample enough for storm initiation.

Time will tell but planning to Leave MN on the 8th and hopefully chasing a extended period as the models are now showing.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

I have been watching the GFS as well as GENS and the GEFS Spaghetti Charts and thinking with a decent confidence that this date will be the start of a muti-day chase.

On the 9th, there seems to be system that shows a very pronounced dry line with very nice Cross over Winds (850-500MB) and DP in the Upper 50's to 60's in TX. The Temp's in a few runs have been poorer but lately it is showing 70's + and the Mixing, I believe, that this might be a good day. The Lift Index is showing -4 to -5 in KS and -6 or so in TX. . There also shows a thin line of cape edging into NE at the 00z time frame along the dry line about the KS CO boarder. Plus GFS, for the most part, short changing the instability this far out and with the topography in the higher terrain in KS 50's DP's are ample enough for storm initiation.

Time will tell but planning to Leave MN on the 8th and hopefully chasing a extended period as the models are now showing.

I agree about the 9th. Gulf moisture looks not to be a problem after we get through the fropa on the 7-8th. Mid 60s Tds with 35-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear could provide some entertainment in NW Texas or western OK. This event looks like to be a segue into a major event by mid to late week. The EC and GFS are in general agreement about the amplification of a western conus trof and with a good fetch of gulf moisture ahead of it... I think OK will finally get in on the severe action.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

New GFS and Canadian models are still very favorable for a 4-5 day period beginning Sunday- this is consistent with previous ensemble data It is looking so good that I took off a week from work and will be heading out Saturday.

 

[Jason Boggs]

It's not looking too bad right now. Everything is in pretty good place for a possible episode. The latest GFS has the dryline right over Amarillo with pretty good Td's in the upper 50's and lower 60's on the east side of the dryline. Upper level support isn't terrific, but it's good enough to get some storms to rotate, if they develop.

Getting storms to develop at all might be the problem for a Mother's Day episode. The latest runs on the GFS puts a pretty stout cap at 700mb at around 9-12C. I think if a storm pops, it may be around the Ok Panhandle into SW KS. So, for right now, my target is an area from Perryton, TX to Liberal, KS where the 700 temps may be a little more manageable. Of course I'm going out on a limb this far out, but well see what happens.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

MOD Note: Please make sure you are making a forecast for Sunday, 5/9/10 (the topic of this FCST thread). If you want to discuss Monday, 5/10/10, or any other day, please use (or start if not already available) the appropriate FCST thread. Thanks!

 

[jamesmseitz]

Just looked at the 18Z GFS run. Even though it seems to slow it down I still think there will be a few good storms on the 9th. The cape seems stronger on OK and the winds are vary favorable. The 9th is just the start as I said but if you are going to chase the following days and it is a weekend.... The 9th still warrants serious attention. If and when things go up that day they will be beautiful and most likely descrete.

Long time away and hoping this all verifies !

 

[Kelly Sugden]

I still think there is a possibility of convection for May 9th in the Texas panhandle. EC and GFS are still showing low to mid 60s Tds across the southern Texas panhandle with sig tornado parameter around 2 for the GFS and 3 for the EC. Cape looks good too around 1500 J/KG. I am worried about too much capping/CIN although if a subtle short wave moves across that should be enough to help initiate convection on the dryline.