4/28/09 FCST: TX/NM

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like Tuesday could potentially be a great chase day, considering moisture will be present, the set-up should not be overly dynamic (like Sunday), the roads in the area are great and lastly, the area has not been worked over. Then again, they desperately need the rain. Initial target will be Hereford, TX area.

W.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I agree with you.

I think down around Plainview, or even a bit further south may be a good place to start. The GFS has a pretty sharp dryline just east of the TX and NM border at 0Z, and the NAM has a sloppy disorganized dryline. As far as instability, the NAM has it way south near I-20, and the GFS paints in CAPE of around 2500 in the southern plains. I think the main show will be the southern half of the SPC's hatched area. I also think they will also get rid of the hatched area in the NW TX Panhandle.

Right now it's not an easy forecast, but it does look to be a good chase day. Like Warren said, there won't be a lot of lift so storms will hopefully stay isolated. And the flat terrain and great road network makes this area the best in the world for chasing.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Jason... you forgot to place a "moderate" and "high" on your graphics...lol.

A LOT depends on this evening's and tomorrow AM's precipitation and where the atmosphere is stabilized. The outflow boundaries will be favored locations. One interesting note, the NCEP models (which have been fairly accurate this season for long range forecasts) are breaking the SW flow after the next few days so there may be a substantial down period of major events coming soon.

W.

 

[Brandon McClung]

I could see some big storms taking shape tomorrow. There appears to be a nice shortwave axis taking shape from the northern plains all the way down to just west of Lubbock. Then there is the obvious dryline stationary/warm front in the area. There appears to be good instabilities, 1500-2000 J/kg, and decent moisture nosing its way into where the stationary front and dryline occlude into eastern NM. The models also shows nice shear overlayed among good lapse rates west of Lubbock. I would try and set up west of Lubbock, near Levelland. But this is preliminary as there seems to be some disagreement among the models as to where the intersection of the dryline and the triple point set up.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Again sadly I will be flying up to Dayton OH for a turbomachinery conference to drum up so business. So I will be missing most of the fun. Good luck to you lucky folks with flexible work schedules or way too much time on their hands.

 

[Matt Gingery]

The elevated action in the morning may blow out the northern hatched area as noted in the above post. I like the MLCAPES >2000J/KG along and south of a line from Clovis to Plainview for initiation. Heating shouldn't be an issue south of this line, and with the shortwave trough progged to push in around 21z, should see some dynamic exposive development. Reminant OFB's should be the focus point for any TOR action tomorrow due to the veering LL winds. There is definately enough directional shear to see some ropes tomorrow.

My target is Tulia Tx. Storms should be mature by this point, and add in the Caprock Coefficient and should be some good stuff. Although, I would definately like to see something in New Mexico, great chase country, and Td's progged close to 60 F tomorrow near Clovis. Long drive from SGF, at least 10 hrs. Leaving at 5 a.m. would put me in Clovis area around 4-5pm and Tulia by 4pm. Anyone in the SGF area that is interested needs to PM me tonight to save gas money.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Today has the earmarks of a classical eastern New Mexico - W. Texas sneak attack. No real dryline push expected, **possible** subsidence left behind by AM trough equals: find the best CAPE/helicity values and let the mountains help initiate convection. In addition, undetected disturbances in the SW flow originating in Mexico or off the mountains are notorious for raising hell in this area. Too bad the White Sands profiler is down. Limiting factor or bust may be cloud cover that does not break, although I think it will clear later.

Interesting note, **early** 13z analysis shows bulls eye of instability with CAPES +/- 1,000 and SB helicities around 300 in portions of SE NM were cloud cover was broken. Sig. torn of 1 and supercell composite of 4. This should improve, at least CAPE-wise as the day progresses. I am a little surprised this area does not warrant a moderate risk, if not for sig. hail threat alone. We will see what happens with the 16:30 outlook.

Initial target will be SE NM bounded by a Clovis - Roswell – Hobbs line to be refined as conditions warrant.

Good luck to all!

W.

 

[Tim Marshall]

I agree with Warren that tornadic supercells are possible along the foothills of Eastern New Mexico and W TX, especially in the Carlsbad to Roswell area today. The directional shear as quite good and the storms will be force fed low-level moisture as they move east. Hopefully, those low clouds will burn off early enough for some surface heating to take place. I will sit this one out given the long haul. tm

 

[Jeff Passner]

Heading to Carlsbad today. Upslope with mid-50s dew point works well most of the time. Low clouds will hang in most of the day over West Texas. Models forecast better PVA and increasing speed aloft in New Mexico, so I'll head to Carlsbad and then adjust north or south based on how convection is forming on the terrain.

 

[Tony Cook]

SWODY Day 1 Text not updating?

Anyone else notice that the bulk of the SWODY1 text has not changed today. I don't mean it is similar, I mean it is *Exactly* the same wording. This is true of the 1300, 1630, and 20Z updates. Kamala reflects the same thing. This is in conjunction with notable changes of the areal coverage of the 5% TOR contour on both udpates.

Maybe I have some weird browser cache thing going on, but I don't think so.

TonyC