Niccolò Ubalducci
Target: Canadian
We are in Hays KS and we will start at 9.00 am
We are in Hays KS and we will start at 9.00 am
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4/25/09 FCST: NE/KS/OK/TX
- Thread starter Jason Haller
- Start date
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Initial target is Shamrock, TX.
Interesting to watch dynamic surface features this morning. The surface trends (although early) may move triple point a little further south. No doubt I want to be near initiation point today as storms may go tornadic quickly. Good luck to everyone and stay safe.
W.
Interesting to watch dynamic surface features this morning. The surface trends (although early) may move triple point a little further south. No doubt I want to be near initiation point today as storms may go tornadic quickly. Good luck to everyone and stay safe.
W.
Darrin Rasberry
Looks like the RUC is pushing things right to the Eastern Oklahoma border with the Panhandle, on east, unless it's taking a lunch break right now. Area of extreme heating is currently forecast by the model at 21z (which is as far as I can see on it ATTM) and it noses up to the DL/CF intersection. What a push by that cold front on the RUC!
If it is *not* taking a lunch break, readjusting now to Clinton, OK. ETA 4 PM. May stop over in Perry for a late lunch and reassessment if we continue making good time.
And concession to the previous reply to my post, they went 15 (but not hatch yet). I think my main compliment was toward the way the forecast was written, and I meant more that I was "playing the probabilities" because of the info they provided about the extra model versions that I don't have. Of course I'd already done work before it came out; I was on TwisterData waiting for the models right as they came off the grill at nine and 10:30 last night. No beef; just didn't want to come off as a TOTAL model leech
EDIT: 00Z model off the grill. DL right along Texas border, with what looks to be a teensy bulge right at the border near I-40. To avoid the Porky Pig forecasting here, I'll just say we're going to hit I-40 and keep driving until we see storms
If it is *not* taking a lunch break, readjusting now to Clinton, OK. ETA 4 PM. May stop over in Perry for a late lunch and reassessment if we continue making good time.
And concession to the previous reply to my post, they went 15 (but not hatch yet). I think my main compliment was toward the way the forecast was written, and I meant more that I was "playing the probabilities" because of the info they provided about the extra model versions that I don't have. Of course I'd already done work before it came out; I was on TwisterData waiting for the models right as they came off the grill at nine and 10:30 last night. No beef; just didn't want to come off as a TOTAL model leech
EDIT: 00Z model off the grill. DL right along Texas border, with what looks to be a teensy bulge right at the border near I-40. To avoid the Porky Pig forecasting here, I'll just say we're going to hit I-40 and keep driving until we see storms
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Adam Penney
EF1
On the road about 20 miles north of ICT. Going to make a brief stop in Enid to look things over better on the way over to Woodward. However, I may jump south on HWY 81from Enid to hook up with I-40 if the southward trend continues on the RUC.
Hoping that area of high clouds moves out of the target area. That seems to be the biggest concern right now,IMO.
Hoping that area of high clouds moves out of the target area. That seems to be the biggest concern right now,IMO.
Darrin Rasberry
I wonder if any earlier development might suffer from higher LCLs and take longer to develop while the sun is up, but after 00z, yes - hopefully my meager second-year forecasting skills (and a little bit of luck!) can point out a decent boundary to play if there's already not something from the day playing around in a good environment like the RUC is projecting by 21z.
Chris C Sanner
EF5
Looks like the start of a long day for everyone! We're gearing up, will be leaving the OKC area at or around 10:00 heading for the general vicinity of Canadian-Pampa-Shamrock. Today holds quite a bit of promise as far as chasing goes, but this needs to be said. If you decide to chase these things after dark, PLEASE BE CAREFUL! Allow plenty of room between yourself and the storm, and just use good old fashioned common sense
I think with the enlarged hodos, still very high cape, and probably still discreete storm mode, the first two hours or so after dark will probably be the climax of the day with storms gradually winding down after that. Good luck to everyone and don't go too crazy out there on the roads
(As always, I'm tweeting through the day at http://www.twitter.com/chrissnr)
I think with the enlarged hodos, still very high cape, and probably still discreete storm mode, the first two hours or so after dark will probably be the climax of the day with storms gradually winding down after that. Good luck to everyone and don't go too crazy out there on the roads
(As always, I'm tweeting through the day at http://www.twitter.com/chrissnr)
Mark Farnik
EF5
Myself and Andrew Stoller are cruising down I-25 through Pueblo attm with an initial target of Canadian, TX (along with everybody else and their dog, mother in law and second cousin twice removed
). Current ETA with minimal stops for gas/food is approximately 3 p.m. CST, which should give us time to adjust and refine our target, which may trend slightly further south towards Wheeler/Shamrock according to the latest run of the RUC.
Expecting 2-4 supercells will form initially along the TX/OK border and then merge into one or two monster cyclic cells right at or just after dark. The hodographs for Woodward and Clinton at 03z tonight are absolutely insane - talk about textbook perfect curvature!
I have a bad gut feeling that a farmstead or two are probably going to get wiped off the map tonight in western Oklahoma...
With the insanely massive amount of chasers who are going to be out today, everybody needs to be paying extra attention and be extra careful. I agree with Chris - let common sense be your guide.
With that said, here's to an amazing chase day with highly photogenic classic supercells and tornadoes!
). Current ETA with minimal stops for gas/food is approximately 3 p.m. CST, which should give us time to adjust and refine our target, which may trend slightly further south towards Wheeler/Shamrock according to the latest run of the RUC. Expecting 2-4 supercells will form initially along the TX/OK border and then merge into one or two monster cyclic cells right at or just after dark. The hodographs for Woodward and Clinton at 03z tonight are absolutely insane - talk about textbook perfect curvature!
I have a bad gut feeling that a farmstead or two are probably going to get wiped off the map tonight in western Oklahoma...
With the insanely massive amount of chasers who are going to be out today, everybody needs to be paying extra attention and be extra careful. I agree with Chris - let common sense be your guide.
With that said, here's to an amazing chase day with highly photogenic classic supercells and tornadoes!
Ryan Wichman
EF3
TARGET: Woodward, OK
In route now from lawrence, KS. The hodographs really set up nicely in the 00z time frame and combined with the amount of instability in the atmosphere this looking to be a really nice set up for supercells.I think there will be two areas where the strongest cells can develop today, one being on the OK/TX panhandle and the other will be closer to the KS/OK border near the woodward/alva region. Given this train of thought we are heading for woodward and will make adjustments along the way.
In route now from lawrence, KS. The hodographs really set up nicely in the 00z time frame and combined with the amount of instability in the atmosphere this looking to be a really nice set up for supercells.I think there will be two areas where the strongest cells can develop today, one being on the OK/TX panhandle and the other will be closer to the KS/OK border near the woodward/alva region. Given this train of thought we are heading for woodward and will make adjustments along the way.
Steve Miller TX
EF3
Aww, heck, why not? I guess I'll chase too today.
I think one target being overlooked is Enid/Ponca City wherever the front ends up. However, I too will be contributing to the increasing population in Shamrock today. ;-)
Today is one of those days of the question not being IF you see a tornado, but how many? I think tornadoes will be popping from Ponca City to Shamrock/Childress today. Hopefully for residents, the tornadoes will only terrorize a few jackrabbits and some cows.
Ya'll be safe out there.
I think one target being overlooked is Enid/Ponca City wherever the front ends up. However, I too will be contributing to the increasing population in Shamrock today. ;-)
Today is one of those days of the question not being IF you see a tornado, but how many? I think tornadoes will be popping from Ponca City to Shamrock/Childress today. Hopefully for residents, the tornadoes will only terrorize a few jackrabbits and some cows.
Ya'll be safe out there.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
You've been chasing long enough to know that there are ALWAYS ways that (a) Mother Nature or (b) you as a chaser can screw yourself on the good days
Still big question as to where the front will end up. The latest RUC (12z) has the front sagging southward to a location similar to where previous NAM runs had shown it (i.e. south of GFS solutions). The orientation of the front looks to be quite favorable, but I'm a bit worried about the magnitude of the cold air behind it. Most obs immediately behind the front in the far N TX PH, OK PH, and adjacent portions of SW KS are reporting 44-47 F temperatures. Vis sat shows some mainly high cloud-cover moving away from the post-frontal area, so it should warm some behind the front. If the post-frontal airmass remains too cool, we may need to worry about storms being undercut (likely as the storm moves northeastward over the frontal boundary,as opposed to the front continuing to sag southward). Any storms that develop farther south should be not have to deal with this potential problem.
I fully expect a zoo out there today. A well-defined, rather small target + nearly May + Weekend + Oklahoma + one of the first really good setups of the year = Chaser and "chaser" ZOO. Will leave to head W on I40 sometime not long after noon local, probably aiming towards the Shamrock or Elk City area.
Jesse Risley
Staff member
Shear profiles should improve later this evening as the LLJ starts to get cranking, but I wouldn't expect initiation prior 22Z if current forecast trends are correct. Some of the hodos on the OK/TX border region look decent after 00Z. We're currently heading towards Shamrock/Wheeler TX and will readjust from there if necessary, but current thinking suggests that should be close to initiation along the pacific front/DL.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Looking at AMA radar, front is showing up nicely, and unfortunately, still moving at an even clip to the south. Front is currently lining up almost parallel to I-40. Second feature (which almost looks like an outflow boundary) but likely dryline (?) can be seen moving W-NW from near Ashtola. West winds in Clovis gusting to 17 mph. What a fun forecast!
W.
W.
David Hoadley
Stormtrack founder
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2006
- Messages
- 122
After yesterday in Lincoln, NE, I am in Clinton, OK this morning. My convoluted forecast picks the same basic area as the 1300Z SPC but a little farther south. My bullseye is 10 miles west of Altus and an active triangle from there to Shamrock and back east to Clinton and all adjacent areas. I'll be out a few more days. - - - Dave Hoadley
Mike Peregrine
EF5
A bit of difference in model guidance this morning. ETA and WRF continue to want precip in northeast panhandle by 0z, while RUC is off and placing it far to the east. The big question is how the dryline will react to surface low development in NM, which should hopefully encourage moisture to pull up and around, with a DL bulge eastward. Amos, Scott and I are going to hang in Arnett for a bit and keep an eye on things. I personally still favor being just a little further south, but we'll just have to keep an eye on where forcing finally occurs and something breaks through. This is definitely a day to keep an eye on obs. Have fun everyone ...
Patrick Martin
EF4
After a lot of deliberation this morning, I opted not make a last minute dash from Denver, and I'm beginning to feel better and better about it, mostly because I don't think I would have made it in time for eventual initiation.
The 15z RUC is still holding onto pulling in high dews and breaking out precip in the nern TX panhandle, but I don't think it's yet taken into account how quickly the front advanced south. My original target as of early this AM was Canadian TX, but with the current frontal position, am thinking that something a little further south and east is much more likely the place to be. Unless something changes, appears to my eye to be more of a wrn OK chase than ern panhandle chase and that staging in Shamrock TX and then seeing how the surface features play out through the afternoon will be in order.
I'll know in a few hours how colassal of a mistake I made by staying home today.
The 15z RUC is still holding onto pulling in high dews and breaking out precip in the nern TX panhandle, but I don't think it's yet taken into account how quickly the front advanced south. My original target as of early this AM was Canadian TX, but with the current frontal position, am thinking that something a little further south and east is much more likely the place to be. Unless something changes, appears to my eye to be more of a wrn OK chase than ern panhandle chase and that staging in Shamrock TX and then seeing how the surface features play out through the afternoon will be in order.
I'll know in a few hours how colassal of a mistake I made by staying home today.
