4/25/09 FCST: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Mike Smith]

For comparison purposes, gas prices in ICT are $1.82 on average.

At this moment the front extends from Newton to Cheney Lake to just west of Harper to Alvard -- based on radars. It is still moving southeast.

 

[Chad Cowan]

I'm seeing tornado potential in eastern KS this afternoon, so much so that I couldn't justify a drive to the western OK target. There is some cloud cover over this area right now but instability will not be lacking given the highest dewpoints we've seen this year. There is a subtle and compact bit of energy moving across central KS toward my target area, which I'm hoping will set off a supercell or two this afternoon. The front that had been shown on previous models as a cold front (tornado killer) will likely remain stationary over this area and actually edge north as a warm front after 7pm in response to the deepening surface low west of here. Will be leaving Lawrence shortly and head south until we find some clearing/ insolation. Live stream will be up in a minute!

 

[David Wolfson]

To my eyes the best initiation dynamics area has been consistently shifting south throughout the day reflecting IMO the upper energy coming in a little south of earlier progs. Through the day my virtual target has shifted from around Canadian down to Quanah, TX.

Truth will soon tell but the lower cloud field and moisture profile seems less trashy "down here" than in the Panhandle.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Looks like first initation may be to the east of the concensus target area - and possibly within the next 2 to 3 hours. The theta-e ridge and instability axis are clearly over central OK....although further removed from the approaching upper support. The RUC is still faithful to a surface low deepening in NW New Mexico, but perhaps an hour or two slower than previous concensus.

I'm becoming more intrigued w/ the possibilities for N central Oklahoma and S central Kansas later this evening w/ the LLJ kicking up.