4/25/08 FCST: IL/IA/WI/MO/AR/OK/TX

[Joel Wright]

I agree with you guys. Not all that excited either. I'm hoping things look better tomorrow afternoon, but at this point that's looking pretty unlikely.

We might end up going out just to shoot some lightning at least, and anything else that we encounter we'll just consider a bonus.

 

[sebenste]

Wow, a lot of pessimism here. Let me tell you this: that MCS in Iowa around midnight will clear northern Illinois by Midday. Let it rage! Then let subsidence from Hades sink in and then we get the clearing and the shear. And then there's the 700 MB dry punch all of you are forgetting moving across the area. SBCAPE around 1,500 isn't bad...all we need is 1-2 hours of halfway decent sun, and we're golden. Negatively tilted 500 MB trough and tight 500 mb vort centers are a good thing. And, being in the right FRONT quadrant of the jet will aid to subsidence and some capping until we get past convective temperature. Also remember that the low will be intensifying all afternoon. What does that mean? Backed flow will be best along and north of the cold front bulge in southern Wisconsin, but along and north of I-88, shear won't be bad. Again, watch the sunshine trends tomorrow. Madison, WI/Freeport, IL/Quad Cities is the corridor to watch.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Wow, a lot of pessimism here. Let me tell you this: that MCS in Iowa around midnight will clear northern Illinois by Midday. Let it rage!

It's not really the storms in Iowa I'm concerned about. It's the severe storms back in Kansas stretching across much of Nebraska and northern Kansas, and the forecasted further southward development off the southern flank off that mcs that could stretch across Missouri in the early morning hours (closer to sunrise) that has me concerned.

I hate hate hate seeing a mass of convection south of my target area, and I fear that's what we'll wake to. Hopefully all of the convection will lift north with the warm front, but I think the southern areas may fill in in the coming hours and it's this that I worry will kill the day.

Again, I hope I'm wrong as I certainly often am but the current trends don't exactly fill me with warm fuzzies for tomorrow's situation. If I plan to pass that exam in 8 hours I better just quit watching and let things pan out. At this point, I kind of feel the opposite, that areas south of Interstate 80 will have the best chance at anything above severe levels, and with the current shear progs, that will be gusty winds if anything.

Gee, has 2008 gotten to my optimism already?

 

[Matthew Fischer]

After pulling out my hair for the past few hours. I decided a good location would either mount sterling or dixon. I'm leaning toward dixon given its still close to I-39 if i need to shoot north but also has I-88 heading southwest and then US-52 heading northwest.

Though this is all pending on what the convection does tonight. Might leave a boundary just south of DVN for play on before the cold front comes through and have a nice line with shelf cloud hopefully!

I believe if things do clear out before the front come through there might be an isolated supercell that could go up depending on where the 500mb jet sets up. If sets up north south like in the models says it will. Might play the right rear quadrant of the jet! Time will tell for the morning convection.

Which seems to kill IL convection! *shakes fist* Or could just be that dome that was installed for protect chicagoland area!

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Taking a brief look at things, I think I'll hold to my thoughts from last night. I think that convection in Iowa and Missouri is going to ruin the day. I think the show in Wisconsin and far northern Illinois is all but over right now.

The RUC seems to be out to lunch. If it's not, western Illinois could be decent play today as it actually keeps winds slightly back to southerly at the surface and slightly backs them more at 850 through the afternoon.

However it also seems to keep the area of convection stationary through the day, which I don't see magically happening. If the storms evaporate in the next couple hours we may see a decent setup in eastern Iowa southward into western Illinois in the afternoon... but I still don't see it and think we'll see the current storms continue their march to work over the atmosphere through the morning.

This is after just a brief look, and not really seeing any 12z data, so I'll hope for change after I finish my exam.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

not going to really look at the models cause they won't really tell much what i already know from reading afd's and spc's forecasts. Basically storms are going fire on the gravity wave aka current convection then once that passes hopefully get some clearing for a big line of storms from cold front. There is a lone cell at in missouri right but to early to tell at this time what its going to do. Some to watch over the next few hours. Sun is out south of bloomton area in illinois. so this will lead to instability in that area even though the ILX sounding was a little crappy! but the air in that area is now moving towards chicago what is south of that air moving in. So might have to play alittle more south today then usually. Have to wait for my chase partner to get off work. We'll be out the door by 12:30! That should be the lone cell near PIA or more ne if or east depending if turns to the right. Time will tell.

Good luck to all going out today. Stay Safe!

 

[Brent A. Clair]

OK, I really wasn't too involved with this forecast before, but here are a few penny thoughts:
The convection passing through WCIL now is narrow and brief. Depending on the rest of the day, might just be enough of a disruption to enhance future activity.
00Z Nam on the BUFKIT shows the front to move through around 1:00. About right according to current location and rate of travel. Sunshine better peek through quick, or not much of a show.
Indices are marginal, but a little heating might swing things. I think that if C MO can get cleared out, then there might be enough here to get things going, much like a few weeks ago.
I'm not really in to this one, so I'll just watch from the windows. If something really gets cooking, I might venture out. But $3.70 fuel; yeah, right!
Later y'all.

 

[Chris Lott]

Front showing up nicely on vis sat now through parts of NW Texas, with some clearing taking place off to the west of I-35. Hoping for clearing over my area to increase surface heating, increasing CAPE values over the region to around 2500 j/kg or higher. Will be mainly playing for a cell to light up along the front today and possibly some good hailers with the more intense updrafts, but that's about it. Hoping for somewhere between 21-0z for a possible discrete cell or two to my NW to go up, then translating into a line later this evening.

 

[David Draun]

There is an OFB from last night's MCS across Northern IL slowly sinking south. It was quite evident on radar overnight, but has since become less visible. Thunderstorms are developing out ahead of the approaching squall line which looks like it will clear much of the area with the exception of the Chicago Metro a little after noon-ish. The visible satellite does show clearing behind the weakening squall line. WAA and insolation will push temps well into the upper 70s possibly the low 80s should things clear out. I would like to see better low-level shear, but I think straight southerly winds should be able to do it. Any discrete storm that can root on that OFB could be trouble. I think SPC will re-asses this situation in the 1630Z outlook. The NMM WRF thinks the current squall line will be the only show today. KLOT AFD believes the cold front will activate later this evening. My target would be right around the Dekalb to Rockford area this afternoon, but I will be in Kankakee due to other obligations. I will still try to chase.

 

[John Farley]

I am still liking the east-central MO/western IL area based on what I am seeing this morning. There is a large relatively clear area in MO behind the band of clouds extending southward from the weakening storms in NE MO/N IL, and as this advects northeast into the target area, it should allow for good heating. The storms in eastern KS are weakening, so I don't think things will get messed up in MO/SW IL by an early squall line. Both the RUC and NAM keep the surface winds pretty much southerly, so there will be some directional shear - SRH predicted up to 400 in some areas. CAPE should be in the vicinity of 1000, maybe 1500 or more if we get good clearing and heating. The models predict plenty of convection this afternoon in eastern MO and western IL. Bottom line: While storm mode is a concern, I am liking this better than anything I have seen in quite a while in this area.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Just taking a look at the 14z RUC and 12z NAM, I am liking the prospects of a chase later today. I like the area of clearing noted behind the initial round of convection.. This convection in parts of Western IL has weakened considerably and is almost gone.. Clearing Slot is very evident on Vis Sat, as water vapor imagery shows nice dry air working in behind it.. Given some of the parameters from the newest model solutions, including the 9z SREF I might possibly target the Galesburg, IL area... Will simply depend on the 12z GFS solution, as well as Clearing and a more detailed look at surface features following the 1630Z SWODY1..

Edit 10:44 Taking a look at the 12z GFS, I still like what I see..
Lifted Index: -5.73 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Showalter Index: -6.14 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index: 57.96 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
Vertical Totals Index: 29.13 C
Cross Totals Index: 28.83 C
K Index: 38.50 Risk: > 80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 530.72 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -3.02 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Also, I noted this
Storm rel Dir Shear (0-3000m): 82.1 deg
Storm rel helicity (0-3000m) pos: 345.9 neg: -38.8 tot: 307.2 m^2/s^2

I like what I see..
Good Luck All!

 

[David Draun]

I really think the possibility of discrete activity today should be re-assessed. CAPE at the surface and in the mixed layer is already increasing. The area of clearing west of the dying squall line continues to expand in size. I caught a brief glance at some of the storm cloud tops in my area from current SVR warnings, and they don't look soft at all. They are also somewhat isolated in nature, albeit linear clusters. This afternoon should become very interesting in my opinion. And I may not be chasing that bad of an area, though any discrete storms may line out by then. Gotta see what the OFB's do.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

The initial round of very heavy thunderstorms have moved eastward now. Winds gusted from 35-40mph here and 1.2 inches fell in only a half hour.
Now Visible Satl. shows clearing in East Iowa and if this area of clearing stays open and we get ample heating then the air could become unstable enough for some renewed activity later today in North central IL.. I'll basically stay put but may do a local chase if a supercell or Bow develops over the area somewhere later..

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Taking a brief look at things, I think I'll hold to my thoughts from last night. I think that convection in Iowa and Missouri is going to ruin the day. I think the show in Wisconsin and far northern Illinois is all but over right now.

Best clearing at this point is trending from E. IA into SW WI. It appears attm that SW into C. WI will be a good play starting around 20z. Storms should initiate in Iowa and move into an increasingly unstable environment to the northeast. I'm liking it!

 

[Chad Cowan]

Decided to scrap the chase yesterday at 5 and it's looking like I might regret that decision. Things are looking up for eastern IA into northwestern IL with the MCS/ overnight convection moving out rapidly and the mid-level dry punch mixing out the low clouds behind that. I still believe there will be a brief window from 2-5pm where tornadoes will be possible in the e IA/nw IL/sw WI area. If I were chasing right now, I would be sitting in Davenport with the 77/70 surface ob.